Manhattan Jaspers at Merrimack Warriors: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 4, 12:00 PM ETLawler Arena · at Merrimack · Conference game

#330MANManhattan66final

Final

#225MRMKMerrimack73▲ winner

Closing lineMRMK -6.5✓ MRMK covered by 0.5

Closing total148.5Under by 9.5

Season records: Manhattan and Merrimack
MAN	This season	MRMK
6-8	Record	8-7
6-8	ATS	8-7
6-8	O/U	5-10

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MAN 71–78 MRMK · ✓ MRMK (73%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MAN	28	38	66
MRMK	37	36	73

1st half: MAN 28, MRMK 37 (MRMK by 9). The model had MRMK by 4.0 and a total of 69.8 (actual 65).

Team stats

MAN		MRMK
28-66 42%	Field goals	26-54 48%
3-12 25%	3-pointers	8-26 31%
7-8 88%	Free throws	13-20 65%
37 12 off	Rebounds	32 5 off
11	Assists	15
6	Steals	6
1	Blocks	3
9	Turnovers	9
15	Fouls	11
38	Points in paint	36
7	Fast-break points	11

Players

MAN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jaden Winston G	40	16	1	5	6-10	2-3
Devin Dinkins G	39	0	3	5	0-7	0-3
Fraser Roxburgh F	32	16	8	0	7-14	1-3
Marko Ljubicic F	22	6	7	0	3-9	0-2
Erik Oliver-Bush G	19	4	1	0	2-4	0-0
Bench
Terrance Jones G	29	8	4	1	4-10	0-1
Anthony Isaac Jr. F	19	16	8	0	6-12	0-0

Did not play: Quron Elliott, Asier Miguel, Nick Lukmann, Omari Moore, Jameson Borodawka, Jaeden Robley, Will Sydnor, Louis Fairtlough, Jackson Delaney, Michael Lawlor, Aryan Arora, Brett Rumpel

MRMK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kevair Kennedy G	40	20	8	7	8-13	0-0
Tye Dorset G	40	15	2	2	5-9	2-5
Ernest Shelton G	36	16	6	1	4-12	3-10
Andrés Marrero G	32	6	1	1	2-8	2-7
Todd Brogna F	23	6	7	3	2-7	1-4
Bench
KC Ugwuakazi F	23	6	7	1	3-3	0-0
Dylan Veillette F	6	4	1	0	2-2	0-0

Did not play: Aliou Cisse, Jacob Moore, Quinn Kwasniak, David Munro, Brendan Johnson, Malik Edmead, Brandon Legris, Jaylen Stinson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MRMK -6.5	MRMK -6.8	MRMK +0.3	W MRMK covered
Total	148.5	149.0	Over 0.5	L Under
Projected score	—	MAN 71.1 · MRMK 77.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MRMK -4.0	MRMK -9.0
1H total	69.8	65
1H projected score	MAN 32.9 · MRMK 36.9	MAN 28 · MRMK 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MAN LWWWW	6-8	43%	1-6	5-5
MRMK WWLWW	8-7	53%	3-1	3-1

Venue/role: MAN away, as underdog; MRMK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MAN UUOUU	6-8	43%	6-8
MRMK UUUOU	5-10	33%	8-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MAN	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
MRMK	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MAN 1–1 MRMKSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · MAN 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 14, 2024-25	MRMK 75 @ MAN 79	MAN +2.5	MAN W
Jan 12, 2024-25	MAN 62 @ MRMK 69	MRMK -7.5	MAN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Manhattan

14 games played

Straight up

6-8

43% wins

Against the spread

6-8

43% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-8

43% overs · avg +6.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-843%

L W L W L L L W L L L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-843%

L W L L L L L W L L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-843%

O U U U O O O U O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@USC	L 83-114	+28.5	L −2.5	155.5	O 197
Nov 12	vsUTU	W 79-75	+2.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 154
Nov 14	@HAW	L 56-86	+15.5	L −14.5	156.5	U 142
Nov 15	vsMVSU	W 80-73	-20.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 153
Nov 21	@TA&M	L 68-109	+23.5	L −17.5	162.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsWAG	L 101-103	-2.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 204
Nov 29	@ARMY	L 78-81	-1.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 159
Dec 5	vsFAIR	W 70-66	+1.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 136
Dec 7	@MRST	L 68-80	+7.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 148
Dec 13	@FOR	L 53-82	+8.5	L −20.5	147.5	U 135
Dec 18	vsFUR	L 68-75	+10.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 143
Dec 21	vsPRES	W 87-81	+2.5	W +8.5	138.5	O 168
Dec 29	@RID	W 74-71	-2.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 2	vsQUIN	W 80-79	+7.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USC

L 83-114

−2.5

UTU

W 79-75

+6.5

HAW

L 56-86

−14.5

MVSU

W 80-73

−13.5

TA&M

L 68-109

−17.5

WAG

L 101-103

−4.5

ARMY

L 78-81

−4.5

FAIR

W 70-66

+5.5

MRST

L 68-80

−4.5

FOR

L 53-82

−20.5

FUR

L 68-75

+3.5

PRES

W 87-81

+8.5

RID

W 74-71

+0.5

QUIN

W 80-79

+8.5

covered 6didn’t cover 8avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USC

L 83-114

+41.5

UTU

W 79-75

−4.5

HAW

L 56-86

−14.5

MVSU

W 80-73

−1.5

TA&M

L 68-109

+14.5

WAG

L 101-103

+59.5

ARMY

L 78-81

+6.5

FAIR

W 70-66

−19.5

MRST

L 68-80

+7.5

FOR

L 53-82

−12.5

FUR

L 68-75

−11.5

PRES

W 87-81

+29.5

RID

W 74-71

−2.5

QUIN

W 80-79

−0.5

over 6under 8avg +6.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Merrimack

15 games played

Straight up

8-7

53% wins

Against the spread

8-7

53% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-10

33% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-753%

L L L W W L L L W W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

8-753%

L L L W W W L L W L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-1033%

U O U O O U U O U U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSDST	L 66-75	+6.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 6	@AUB	L 57-95	+23.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 152
Nov 11	@TAR	L 62-76	+4.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 15	@BU	W 91-79	+2.5	W +14.5	135.5	O 170
Nov 19	vsME	W 72-65	-6.5	W +0.5	130.5	O 137
Nov 21	@FLA	L 45-80	+36.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 125
Nov 28	@PENN	L 65-77	+2.5	L −9.5	152.5	U 142
Nov 29	vsHOF	L 58-78	+5.5	L −14.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 30	vsLAS	W 66-60	+2.5	W +8.5	132.5	U 126
Dec 4	vsRID	W 68-66	-9.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 134
Dec 7	vsFAIR	W 74-63	-3.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 10	@PRIN	W 59-56	+2.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 115
Dec 14	@UVM	L 59-66	+6.5	L −0.5	136.5	U 125
Dec 29	@SHU	W 80-72	+1.5	W +9.5	144.5	O 152
Jan 2	vsMSM	W 75-65	-3.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

−14.5

TAR

L 62-76

−9.5

W 91-79

+14.5

W 72-65

+0.5

FLA

L 45-80

+1.5

PENN

L 65-77

−9.5

HOF

L 58-78

−14.5

LAS

W 66-60

+8.5

RID

W 68-66

−7.5

FAIR

W 74-63

+7.5

PRIN

W 59-56

+5.5

UVM

L 59-66

−0.5

SHU

W 80-72

+9.5

MSM

W 75-65

+6.5

covered 8didn’t cover 7avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

+3.5

TAR

L 62-76

−4.5

W 91-79

+34.5

W 72-65

+6.5

FLA

L 45-80

−33.5

PENN

L 65-77

−10.5

HOF

L 58-78

+0.5

LAS

W 66-60

−6.5

RID

W 68-66

−4.5

FAIR

W 74-63

−7.5

PRIN

W 59-56

−19.5

UVM

L 59-66

−11.5

SHU

W 80-72

+7.5

MSM

W 75-65

−1.5

over 5under 10avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Manhattan Jaspers at Merrimack Warriors

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Manhattan

Merrimack

Manhattan

Merrimack