Eastern Washington Eagles at North Texas Mean Green: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 8:00 PM ETThe Super Pit · at North Texas

Final

#112UNTNorth Texas79▲ winner

Closing lineUNT -12.5✓ EWU covered by 4.5

Closing total141.5Over by 8.5

Season records: E Washington and North Texas
EWU	This season	UNT
0-5	Record	3-2
3-2	ATS	4-1
4-1	O/U	1-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: EWU 65–77 UNT · ✓ UNT (86%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
EWU	30	35	6	71
UNT	33	32	14	79

1st half: EWU 30, UNT 33 (UNT by 3). The model had UNT by 7.3 and a total of 66.5 (actual 63).

Team stats

EWU		UNT
25-63 40%	Field goals	26-60 43%
6-21 29%	3-pointers	7-25 28%
15-19 79%	Free throws	20-30 67%
42 14 off	Rebounds	38 13 off
9	Assists	13
8	Steals	10
3	Blocks	4
15	Turnovers	12
22	Fouls	15
32	Points in paint	34
6	Fast-break points	13

Players

EWU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Isaiah Moses G	40	14	3	4	5-15	0-3
Straton Rogers G	36	6	8	1	3-5	0-0
Kiree Huie F	26	10	7	0	4-8	0-0
Johnny Radford G	25	6	4	1	2-7	2-5
Emmett Marquardt F	24	5	4	1	2-7	1-4
Bench
Alton Hamilton IV F	25	16	4	1	5-8	2-2
Jojo Anderson G	24	7	6	1	2-7	0-2
Elijah Thomas G	12	0	1	0	0-3	0-3
Tyler Powell G	12	7	1	0	2-3	1-2
Cole Scherer G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Angelo Winkel, Shaumba Ngoyi, Maddox Monson, Andrew Cook, Alan Gballou

UNT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
David Terrell Jr. G	42	9	2	6	2-10	0-4
Je'Shawn Stevenson G	39	26	6	1	8-16	3-8
Dylan Arnett F	37	11	11	3	5-9	0-0
Reece Robinson F	31	13	4	0	5-8	1-3
Demarion Watson G	22	6	5	1	2-5	2-4
Bench
Cole Franklin G	24	6	5	0	1-2	1-2
Josiah Shackleford F	10	6	0	0	3-6	0-0
Buddy Hammer Jr. F	7	2	0	1	0-0	0-0
Cahmai Crosby G	5	0	1	0	0-2	0-2
EJ Horton G	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Curtis Stinson Jr. G	4	0	0	1	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Will McClendon

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UNT -12.5	UNT -12.3	EWU +0.2	W EWU covered
Total	141.5	141.9	Over 0.4	W Over
Projected score	—	EWU 64.8 · UNT 77.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNT -7.3	UNT -3.0
1H total	66.5	63
1H projected score	EWU 29.6 · UNT 36.9	EWU 30 · UNT 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EWU WWWLL	3-2	60%	3-2	3-1
UNT WWWLW	4-1	80%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: EWU away, as underdog; UNT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
EWU OUOOO	4-1	80%	0-5
UNT UUUOU	1-4	20%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EWUlast 5	0-5 0%	3-2 60%	4-1 80%
UNTlast 5	3-2 60%	4-1 80%	1-4 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

E Washington

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg −2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +8.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-180%

O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UCLA	L 74-80	+29.5	W +23.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 5	@LMU	L 62-70	+9.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 132
Nov 8	@COLO	L 97-102	+16.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 199
Nov 12	@SEA	L 67-94	+8.5	L −18.5	148.5	O 161
Nov 23	@CARK	L 65-92	-4.5	L −31.5	154.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCLA

L 74-80

+23.5

LMU

L 62-70

+1.5

COLO

L 97-102

+11.5

SEA

L 67-94

−18.5

CARK

L 65-92

−31.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCLA

L 74-80

+4.5

LMU

L 62-70

−21.5

COLO

L 97-102

+46.5

SEA

L 67-94

+12.5

CARK

L 65-92

+2.5

over 4under 1avg +8.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

North Texas

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-180%

W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsNWST	W 80-53	-11.5	W +15.5	137.5	U 133
Nov 9	vsLUC	W 64-62	+1.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 12	@ORST	L 64-66	+3.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 14	@SMC	L 49-80	+14.5	L −16.5	128.5	O 129
Nov 20	vsCARK	W 74-56	-16.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NWST

W 80-53

+15.5

LUC

W 64-62

+3.5

ORST

L 64-66

+1.5

SMC

L 49-80

−16.5

CARK

W 74-56

+1.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NWST

W 80-53

−4.5

LUC

W 64-62

−12.5

ORST

L 64-66

−4.5

SMC

L 49-80

+0.5

CARK

W 74-56

−4.5

over 1under 4avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Eastern Washington Eagles at North Texas Mean Green

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

E Washington

North Texas

E Washington

North Texas