1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Dec 11
  3. GCU @ MEM
NCAAB · Fri, Dec 11

Grand Canyon Lopes at Memphis Tigers

FedExForum · at Memphis
#80GCUGrand Canyon
@
#76MEMMemphis
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GCUThis seasonMEM
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MEM 78–76 · win probability MEM 55%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.4
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GCU has more of the edges

GCU 4, MEM 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
GCUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GCU 31.3%, MEM 35.3%. Defensive: GCU 74.7%, MEM 64.3%
GCUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: GCU 39.5, MEM 34.7. Allowed: GCU 39.0, MEM 42.4
GCUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: GCU 51.7 and allows 47.4; MEM 48.7 and allows 48.7
GCUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GCU 51%, MEM 15%. Transfers in: GCU 9, MEM 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: GCU plays 69.3 a game (166th fastest), MEM 71.9 (37th). Faster games mean more points
MEMSmall
Home court
MEM at home. This season: MEM 0-0 at home, GCU 0-0 away
Even
GCU offense vs MEM defense
Offense 83rd of 366 against a defense 116th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
GCU has played the 107th-hardest schedule, MEM the 81st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
MEM offense vs GCU defense
Offense 62nd of 366 against a defense 78th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
GCU hits 31.8% and allows 31.9%; MEM hits 31.6% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 38.9% and 33.7% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GCU 17.6%, MEM 18.9%. Forced: GCU 17.4%, MEM 18.6%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MEM -1.6—
Total—153.4—
Projected score—GCU 75.9 · MEM 77.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMEM -0.8—
1H total71.7—
1H projected scoreGCU 35.5 · MEM 36.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Memphis has the better starters

Position by position: Grand Canyon 1, Memphis 2, even 2
Grand CanyonBetterMemphis
G J. Zimmerman TR15.2 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 32
MEMBig
G L. Almodovar TR14.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 80
G M. Tucker TR13 pts · 2.1 reb · 3 ast Score 56
MEMSmall
G B. Cummings TR12.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 84
G J. Henley17.7 pts · 5.7 reb · 2.9 ast Score 97
Even
G J. Reid TR10.1 pts · 1.4 reb · 5 ast Score 83
G M. Williams14 pts · 2.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 89
Even
F T. Weeks TR20.1 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.3 ast Score 88
F B. Barkley TR14.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 89
GCUSmall
F C. Williams TR11.7 pts · 9.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 68
Grand CanyonBetterMemphis
GCU offense83rd of 366 · +0.4
Even
MEM defense116th of 366 · -1.5
GCU defense78th of 366 · +0.5
Even
MEM offense62nd of 366 · +2.6
Backcourt+4.6 · 4 players
Even
Backcourt+4.5 · 3 players
Frontcourt+3.0 · 1 player
MEMSmall
Frontcourt+4.1 · 2 players
Bench+2.6 · 5 players
MEMSmall
Bench+4.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGCU betterMEM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Grand Canyon
Guards
J. Zimmerman33 min · TRM. Tucker32 min · TRJ. Henley32 minM. Williams27 minT. Holloman26 min · TRD. Skillings25 min · TR
Forwards
B. Barkley29 min · TRT. Behrend22 min · TRA. Dickerson22 min · TRO. Biliew20 min · TRJ. SawyerNewJ. WhortonNew
Centers
E. Demirel23 min
Memphis
Guards
L. Almodovar28 min · TRB. Cummings26 min · TRJ. Reid26 min · TRJ. Thedford20 minJ. Holloway13 min · TRP. PoundsNew
Forwards
T. Weeks34 min · TRC. Williams33 min · TRR. Vavers25 min · TRJ. Deng13 min · TRM. Logue11 min · TRW. Whorton9 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GCUMEM
Scoring
75.6 #153Points per game75.2 #158
1.09 #158Points per possession1.04 #264
69.3 #166Pace (possessions)71.9 #37
Shooting
51.7 #162Effective FG%48.7 #298
31.8 #2863-point %31.6 #303
38.9 #1923-point attempt rate33.7 #305
39.5 #67Free throw rate34.7 #190
Possessions
17.6 #245Turnover rate18.9 #316
31.3 #150Offensive rebound rate35.3 #41
12.8 #230Assists per game13.3 #193
Defense
68.7 #42Points allowed76.6 #234
0.99 #22Points allowed per possession1.07 #124
47.4 #28Opponent effective FG%48.7 #55
31.9 #60Opponent 3-point %30.6 #22
17.4 #129Turnovers forced18.6 #69
74.7 #12Defensive rebound rate64.3 #350
6.6 #165Steals per game8.4 #19
3.6 #123Blocks per game4.3 #49
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Grand Canyon

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nevada80–84
  • Wvs Fresno St85–60
  • W@ Air Force86–60
  • L@ Utah State69–74
  • Wvs UNLV80–67

A week or more of rest.

Memphis

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tulane69–81
  • W@ Tulane96–95
  • Lvs South Florida89–96
  • L@ East Carolina68–84
  • Lvs Wichita St82–88

A week or more of rest.