Wyoming Cowboys at Colorado State Rams: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 11, 8:00 PM ETMoby Arena · at Colorado St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wyoming and Colorado St
WYO	This season	CSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CSU 77–69 · win probability CSU 75%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CSU has more of the edges

WYO 2, CSU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CSUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: WYO 35.5, CSU 39.4. Allowed: WYO 47.9, CSU 34.2

WYOBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WYO 16.3%, CSU 18.5%. Forced: WYO 16.8%, CSU 15.4%

WYOSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WYO 34.0%, CSU 30.0%. Defensive: WYO 72.0%, CSU 70.8%

CSUSmall

Three-pointers

WYO hits 33.0% and allows 32.8%; CSU hits 38.6% and allows 34.2%. Threes are 43.0% and 49.1% of their shots

CSUSmall

WYO offense vs CSU defense

Offense 124th of 366 against a defense 61st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: WYO plays 67.6 a game (252nd fastest), CSU 64.4 (355th). Faster games mean more points

CSUSmall

Home court

CSU at home. This season: CSU 0-0 at home, WYO 0-0 away

CSUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: WYO 51.8 and allows 52.0; CSU 57.5 and allows 52.9

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WYO 45%, CSU 67%. Transfers in: WYO 4, CSU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

CSU offense vs WYO defense

Offense 103rd of 366 against a defense 130th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

WYO has played the 105th-hardest schedule, CSU the 96th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	CSU -7.7	—
Total	—	145.9	—
Projected score	—	WYO 69.1 · CSU 76.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CSU -4.5	—
1H total	68.3	—
1H projected score	WYO 31.9 · CSU 36.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WYO LWWLW	15-17	47%	5-8	—
CSU WLLLL	18-15	55%	9-8	—

Venue/role: WYO away; CSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WYO UOOUU	16-16	50%	17-15
CSU OOUUU	17-16	52%	20-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WYO	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
CSU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wyoming

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 14	vs WIN	No recent meeting

Colorado St

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

WYO 4–6 CSUCSU leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · WYO 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 14, 2025-26	WYO 68 @ CSU 79	CSU -3.5	CSU W
Jan 31, 2025-26	CSU 57 @ WYO 68	WYO -1.5	WYO W
Feb 15, 2024-25	WYO 53 @ CSU 88	CSU -10.5	CSU W
Jan 18, 2024-25	CSU 79 @ WYO 63	WYO +4.5	CSU W
Mar 2, 2023-24	WYO 62 @ CSU 70	CSU -15.5	WYO W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wyoming

32 games played

Straight up

17-15

53% wins

Against the spread

15-17

47% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-16

50% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1553%

W W W L W W L W W W L W L W L L L L W L W L L L W W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1747%

L W W L L W W L W W L L L W L L L L L L W W W L W W L L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1650%

O U U U O O U O O O O U U O O U U O U O U U O O O U U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsCSUF	W 92-82	-15.5	L −5.5	154.5	O 174
Nov 11	vsAPSU	W 79-65	-5.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 144
Nov 15	vsPORT	W 93-56	-11.5	W +25.5	160.5	U 149
Nov 19	@SHSU	L 70-78	+1.5	L −6.5	156.5	U 148
Nov 23	vsNORF	W 75-67	-15.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 26	vsDEN	W 101-59	-9.5	W +32.5	153.5	O 160
Nov 30	@TTU	L 72-76	+19.5	W +15.5	152.5	U 148
Dec 6	vsDART	W 93-80	-14.5	L −1.5	156.5	O 173
Dec 9	vsSDAK	W 106-79	-14.5	W +12.5	161.5	O 185
Dec 15	vsSDST	W 87-72	-3.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 159
Dec 20	vsGCU	L 70-82	-2.5	L −14.5	147.5	O 152
Dec 30	@AF	W 68-56	-14.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 124
Jan 3	@UNM	L 58-78	+7.5	L −12.5	151.5	U 136
Jan 6	vsUNLV	W 98-66	-4.5	W +27.5	154.5	O 164
Jan 10	@NEV	L 83-92	+3.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 175
Jan 14	vsSDSU	L 57-74	+1.5	L −15.5	148.5	U 131
Jan 17	@FRES	L 60-63	-3.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 123
Jan 20	vsBOIS	L 65-81	+1.5	L −14.5	145.5	O 146
Jan 24	vsSJSU	W 66-62	-13.5	L −9.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 28	@USU	L 62-94	+13.5	L −18.5	148.5	O 156
Jan 31	vsCSU	W 68-57	-1.5	W +9.5	142.5	U 125
Feb 3	@SDSU	L 63-72	+12.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 135
Feb 7	vsUSU	L 83-85	+9.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 168
Feb 14	@CSU	L 68-79	+3.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 17	vsFRES	W 92-82	-9.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 174
Feb 21	@GCU	W 70-65	+7.5	W +12.5	144.5	U 135
Feb 24	@BOIS	L 62-72	+8.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 134
Feb 28	vsAF	W 66-62	-20.5	L −16.5	145.5	U 128
Mar 3	vsNEV	W 83-73	+1.5	W +11.5	143.5	O 156
Mar 7	@SJSU	W 88-78	-6.5	W +3.5	148.5	O 166
Mar 11	vsUNLV	L 70-73	+2.5	L −0.5	153.5	U 143
Mar 17	@WICH	L 70-74	+5.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CSUF

W 92-82

−5.5

APSU

W 79-65

+8.5

PORT

W 93-56

+25.5

SHSU

L 70-78

−6.5

NORF

W 75-67

−7.5

DEN

W 101-59

+32.5

TTU

L 72-76

+15.5

DART

W 93-80

−1.5

SDAK

W 106-79

+12.5

SDST

W 87-72

+11.5

GCU

L 70-82

−14.5

W 68-56

−2.5

UNM

L 58-78

−12.5

UNLV

W 98-66

+27.5

NEV

L 83-92

−5.5

SDSU

L 57-74

−15.5

FRES

L 60-63

−6.5

BOIS

L 65-81

−14.5

SJSU

W 66-62

−9.5

USU

L 62-94

−18.5

CSU

W 68-57

+9.5

SDSU

L 63-72

+3.5

USU

L 83-85

+7.5

CSU

L 68-79

−7.5

FRES

W 92-82

+0.5

GCU

W 70-65

+12.5

BOIS

L 62-72

−1.5

W 66-62

−16.5

NEV

W 83-73

+11.5

SJSU

W 88-78

+3.5

UNLV

L 70-73

−0.5

WICH

L 70-74

+1.5

covered 15didn’t cover 17avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CSUF

W 92-82

+19.5

APSU

W 79-65

−9.5

PORT

W 93-56

−11.5

SHSU

L 70-78

−8.5

NORF

W 75-67

+0.5

DEN

W 101-59

+6.5

TTU

L 72-76

−4.5

DART

W 93-80

+16.5

SDAK

W 106-79

+23.5

SDST

W 87-72

+9.5

GCU

L 70-82

+4.5

W 68-56

−22.5

UNM

L 58-78

−15.5

UNLV

W 98-66

+9.5

NEV

L 83-92

+31.5

SDSU

L 57-74

−17.5

FRES

L 60-63

−22.5

BOIS

L 65-81

+0.5

SJSU

W 66-62

−13.5

USU

L 62-94

+7.5

CSU

W 68-57

−17.5

SDSU

L 63-72

−6.5

USU

L 83-85

+18.5

CSU

L 68-79

+6.5

FRES

W 92-82

+25.5

GCU

W 70-65

−9.5

BOIS

L 62-72

−12.5

W 66-62

−17.5

NEV

W 83-73

+12.5

SJSU

W 88-78

+17.5

UNLV

L 70-73

−10.5

WICH

L 70-74

−4.5

over 16under 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Colorado St

33 games played

Straight up

20-13

61% wins

Against the spread

18-15

55% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-16

52% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1361%

W W W W L L W W W W L L W L W L L W L L L W W W W W W W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

18-1555%

W W L W L W W W W W L L W L W L L W W L L L W W W W L W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1652%

O O O U O U O U O U O U U O U O O U U U U U O O O O U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUIW	W 98-64	-10.5	W +23.5	147.5	O 162
Nov 9	vsOMA	W 97-74	-14.5	W +8.5	153.5	O 171
Nov 12	vsCP	W 93-79	-18.5	L −4.5	165.5	O 172
Nov 16	@LUC	W 80-67	-3.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 147
Nov 21	vsDEN	L 81-83	-18.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsVT	L 64-66	+4.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 130
Nov 27	vsWICH	W 76-70	-1.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 146
Nov 28	vsUSF	W 83-68	+2.5	W +17.5	155.5	U 151
Dec 6	vsCOLO	W 91-86	-1.5	W +3.5	149.5	O 177
Dec 9	vsDART	W 76-55	-20.5	W +0.5	153.5	U 131
Dec 20	@USU	L 58-100	+10.5	L −31.5	147.5	O 158
Dec 30	vsNEV	L 62-75	-1.5	L −14.5	139.5	U 137
Jan 3	@GCU	W 70-60	+6.5	W +16.5	143.5	U 130
Jan 6	vsUNM	L 70-80	+1.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 9	vsUNLV	W 70-62	-6.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 132
Jan 13	@FRES	L 69-79	-3.5	L −13.5	139.5	O 148
Jan 16	@BOIS	L 73-79	+5.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 152
Jan 20	vsAF	W 81-52	-19.5	W +9.5	133.5	U 133
Jan 23	vsUSU	L 61-65	+5.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 126
Jan 28	@SDSU	L 50-73	+9.5	L −13.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 31	@WYO	L 57-68	+1.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 125
Feb 7	vsSJSU	W 65-57	-15.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 122
Feb 10	@AF	W 91-74	-16.5	W +0.5	137.5	O 165
Feb 14	vsWYO	W 79-68	-3.5	W +7.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 18	@UNLV	W 91-86	+2.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 177
Feb 21	vsSDSU	W 83-74	+3.5	W +12.5	139.5	O 157
Feb 24	vsFRES	W 74-70	-8.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 144
Feb 28	@SJSU	W 85-73	-4.5	W +7.5	151.5	O 158
Mar 4	@UNM	W 82-74	+8.5	W +16.5	150.5	O 156
Mar 7	vsBOIS	L 67-78	-1.5	L −12.5	143.5	O 145
Mar 11	vsFRES	W 67-63	-7.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 130
Mar 12	vsSDSU	L 62-71	+6.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 133
Mar 18	vsJOES	L 64-69	-5.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UIW

W 98-64

+23.5

OMA

W 97-74

+8.5

W 93-79

−4.5

LUC

W 80-67

+9.5

DEN

L 81-83

−20.5

L 64-66

+2.5

WICH

W 76-70

+4.5

USF

W 83-68

+17.5

COLO

W 91-86

+3.5

DART

W 76-55

+0.5

USU

L 58-100

−31.5

NEV

L 62-75

−14.5

GCU

W 70-60

+16.5

UNM

L 70-80

−8.5

UNLV

W 70-62

+1.5

FRES

L 69-79

−13.5

BOIS

L 73-79

−0.5

W 81-52

+9.5

USU

L 61-65

+1.5

SDSU

L 50-73

−13.5

WYO

L 57-68

−9.5

SJSU

W 65-57

−7.5

W 91-74

+0.5

WYO

W 79-68

+7.5

UNLV

W 91-86

+7.5

SDSU

W 83-74

+12.5

FRES

W 74-70

−4.5

SJSU

W 85-73

+7.5

UNM

W 82-74

+16.5

BOIS

L 67-78

−12.5

FRES

W 67-63

−3.5

SDSU

L 62-71

−2.5

JOES

L 64-69

−10.5

covered 18didn’t cover 15avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UIW

W 98-64

+14.5

OMA

W 97-74

+17.5

W 93-79

+6.5

LUC

W 80-67

−4.5

DEN

L 81-83

+14.5

L 64-66

−23.5

WICH

W 76-70

+3.5

USF

W 83-68

−4.5

COLO

W 91-86

+27.5

DART

W 76-55

−22.5

USU

L 58-100

+10.5

NEV

L 62-75

−2.5

GCU

W 70-60

−13.5

UNM

L 70-80

+6.5

UNLV

W 70-62

−19.5

FRES

L 69-79

+8.5

BOIS

L 73-79

+11.5

W 81-52

−0.5

USU

L 61-65

−23.5

SDSU

L 50-73

−16.5

WYO

L 57-68

−17.5

SJSU

W 65-57

−16.5

W 91-74

+27.5

WYO

W 79-68

+6.5

UNLV

W 91-86

+29.5

SDSU

W 83-74

+17.5

FRES

W 74-70

−5.5

SJSU

W 85-73

+6.5

UNM

W 82-74

+5.5

BOIS

L 67-78

+1.5

FRES

W 67-63

−16.5

SDSU

L 62-71

−9.5

JOES

L 64-69

−11.5

over 17under 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Colorado St has the better starters

Position by position: Wyoming 1, Colorado St 3, even 1

WyomingBetterColorado St

G C. Jefferson TR12.7 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 48

CSUSmall

G J. Menard TR12.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 3.8 ast Score 79

G K. Bennett10.1 pts · 4.8 reb · 2.8 ast Score 76

Even

G J. Pascarelli10.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 64

G N. Meyer12.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 83

WYOSmall

G J. Butler9.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 67

F R. Sondors TR10.4 pts · 4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 15

CSUBig

F K. Jorgensen11.5 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 87

F G. Gores7.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.4 ast Score 65

CSUSmall

F C. Booth10.7 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 90

WyomingBetterColorado St

WYO offense124th of 366 · -3.3

CSUSmall

CSU defense61st of 366 · +1.2

WYO defense130th of 366 · -2.4

Even

CSU offense103rd of 366 · -1.2

Backcourt+1.8 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt+1.8 · 3 players

Frontcourt-2.2 · 2 players

CSUBig

Frontcourt+5.0 · 2 players

Bench-1.4 · 3 players

Even

Bench-0.7 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestWYO betterCSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wyoming

Guards

C. Jefferson31 min · TRK. Bennett28 minN. Meyer28 minU. Rojas17 minP. Gerrits10 min · TRM. De MartinNew

Forwards

R. Sondors29 min · TRG. Gores18 minM. Curtis9 min · TRM. MoraNewN. SummersNewC. PohlNew

Centers

L. RufNew

Colorado St

Guards

J. Menard29 min · TRJ. Pascarelli27 minJ. Butler26 minJ. McIver12 minR. SawyerNewP. DunsonNew

Forwards

K. Jorgensen26 minC. Booth25 minR. Mbemba18 minC. Dortch2 minA. MillerNewD. TedeschiNew

Centers

J. ClarkNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WYO76.2 #137

CSU74.8 #169

Points per possession

WYO1.13 #92

CSU1.16 #44

Pace (possessions)

WYO67.6 #252

CSU64.4 #355

Shooting

Effective FG%

WYO51.8 #154

CSU57.5 #12

3-point %

WYO33.0 #234

CSU38.6 #9

3-point attempt rate

WYO43.0 #116

CSU49.1 #19

Free throw rate

WYO35.5 #166

CSU39.4 #69

Possessions

Turnover rate

WYO16.3 #155

CSU18.5 #298

Offensive rebound rate

WYO34.0 #66

CSU30.0 #198

Assists per game

WYO14.1 #141

CSU15.6 #62

Defense

Points allowed

WYO72.9 #131

CSU71.6 #95

Points allowed per possession

WYO1.08 #169

CSU1.11 #241

Opponent effective FG%

WYO52.0 #211

CSU52.9 #263

Opponent 3-point %

WYO32.8 #108

CSU34.2 #196

Turnovers forced

WYO16.8 #164

CSU15.4 #255

Defensive rebound rate

WYO72.0 #66

CSU70.8 #123

Steals per game

WYO6.6 #169

CSU5.2 #320

Blocks per game

WYO2.4 #318

CSU2.1 #338

WYO		CSU
Scoring
76.2 #137	Points per game	74.8 #169
1.13 #92	Points per possession	1.16 #44
67.6 #252	Pace (possessions)	64.4 #355
Shooting
51.8 #154	Effective FG%	57.5 #12
33.0 #234	3-point %	38.6 #9
43.0 #116	3-point attempt rate	49.1 #19
35.5 #166	Free throw rate	39.4 #69
Possessions
16.3 #155	Turnover rate	18.5 #298
34.0 #66	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #198
14.1 #141	Assists per game	15.6 #62
Defense
72.9 #131	Points allowed	71.6 #95
1.08 #169	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #241
52.0 #211	Opponent effective FG%	52.9 #263
32.8 #108	Opponent 3-point %	34.2 #196
16.8 #164	Turnovers forced	15.4 #255
72.0 #66	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #123
6.6 #169	Steals per game	5.2 #320
2.4 #318	Blocks per game	2.1 #338

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wyoming

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Wichita St70–74
Lvs UNLV70–73
W@ San José St88–78
Wvs Nevada83–73
Wvs Air Force66–62

A week or more of rest.

Colorado St

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Saint Joseph's64–69
Lvs San Diego St62–71
Wvs Fresno St67–63
Lvs Boise St67–78
W@ New Mexico82–74

A week or more of rest.

Wyoming Cowboys at Colorado State Rams

What could decide it: CSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Wyoming

Colorado St

Colorado St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wyoming

Colorado St