Mackey Arena · at Purdue
#7TENNTennessee AP #8
@
#23PURPurdue
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
Season records: Tennessee and Purdue
TENNThis seasonPUR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TENN 78–72 · win probability TENN 69%
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Winner
Line
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no line yet
Total
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model 150.4
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
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No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PUR has more of the edges

TENN 0, PUR 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
PURSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TENN 17.4%, PUR 13.7%. Forced: TENN 16.1%, PUR 15.3%
PURSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TENN 13%, PUR 43%. Transfers in: TENN 9, PUR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: TENN plays 68.1 a game (226th fastest), PUR 65.4 (333rd). Faster games mean more points
PURSmall
Home court
PUR at home. This season: PUR 0-0 at home, TENN 0-0 away
Even
PUR offense vs TENN defense
Offense 38th of 366 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: TENN 51.4 and allows 47.8; PUR 57.6 and allows 52.4
Even
Three-pointers
TENN hits 33.4% and allows 30.5%; PUR hits 38.3% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 32.1% and 40.2% of their shots
Even
TENN offense vs PUR defense
Offense 9th of 366 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: TENN 37.4, PUR 28.6. Allowed: TENN 36.3, PUR 25.5
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TENN 44.7%, PUR 36.4%. Defensive: TENN 72.2%, PUR 72.9%
Context
Schedule so far
TENN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, PUR the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TENN -5.6—
Total—150.4—
Projected score—TENN 78 · PUR 72.4

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadTENN -3.5—
1H total70.3—
1H projected scoreTENN 36.9 · PUR 33.4—

Tennessee has the better starters

Position by position: Tennessee 1, Purdue 0, even 4
TennesseeBetterPurdue
G J. Harris TR21.4 pts · 6.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 99
TENNSmall
G C. Cox8.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 82
G T. Lundblade TR15.8 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 63
Even
G G. Harris4.6 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75
G D. Dai Ames TR17 pts · 2 reb · 2.1 ast Score 83
Even
G J. Benter4.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75
F B. Lue TR10.9 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.3 ast Score 53
Even
G O. Mayer5.5 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 64
C M. Rubin TR11.3 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 83
Even
C D. Jacobsen5.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 88
TennesseeBetterPurdue
TENN offense9th of 366 · +10.4
Even
PUR defense18th of 366 · +6.0
TENN defense9th of 366 · +8.2
Even
PUR offense38th of 366 · +5.0
Backcourt+8.4 · 3 players
TENNBig
Backcourt+2.4 · 4 players
Frontcourt+3.1 · 2 players
TENNSmall
Frontcourt+1.8 · 1 player
Bench+11.2 · 5 players
TENNBig
Bench-0.0 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestTENN betterPUR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Tennessee
Guards
J. Harris35 min · TRT. Lundblade35 min · TRD. Dai Ames32 min · TRJ. Haralson27 min · TRT. Hill25 min · TRT. Henderson7 min
Forwards
B. Lue27 min · TRJ. Washington21 min · TRD. Brown15 minC. Fermin13 min · TRC. WashingtonNewR. ScottNew
Centers
M. Rubin30 min · TR
Purdue
Guards
C. Cox24 minG. Harris16 minJ. Benter15 minO. Mayer14 minJ. Rayl2 minJ. Lusk2 min
Forwards
S. KingNewC. PierceNewE. ShahrvinNewR. BurgessNewR. KnightNew
Centers
D. Jacobsen13 minS. HuanNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TENNPUR
Scoring
78.8 #81Points per game81.6 #35
1.16 #49Points per possession1.25 #2
68.1 #226Pace (possessions)65.4 #333
Shooting
51.4 #174Effective FG%57.6 #10
33.4 #2013-point %38.3 #11
32.1 #3283-point attempt rate40.2 #164
37.4 #115Free throw rate28.6 #336
Possessions
17.4 #227Turnover rate13.7 #16
44.7 #1Offensive rebound rate36.4 #19
17.1 #24Assists per game19.6 #2
Defense
69.6 #58Points allowed70.5 #65
1.02 #43Points allowed per possession1.08 #162
47.8 #37Opponent effective FG%52.4 #232
30.5 #21Opponent 3-point %34.1 #192
16.1 #215Turnovers forced15.3 #263
72.2 #61Defensive rebound rate72.9 #39
7.3 #101Steals per game5.5 #297
3.7 #114Blocks per game2.8 #257

Tennessee

25-12 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan62–95
  • Wvs Iowa State76–62
  • Wvs Virginia79–72
  • Wvs Miami OH78–56
  • Lvs Vanderbilt68–75

A week or more of rest.

Purdue

30-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-7 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona64–79
  • Wvs Texas79–77
  • Wvs Miami79–69
  • Wvs Queens University Royals104–71
  • Wvs Michigan80–72

A week or more of rest.