Vermont Catamounts at Merrimack Warriors: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 10, 12:00 AM ETLawler Arena · at Merrimack

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Vermont and Merrimack
UVM	This season	MRMK
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MRMK 70–67 · win probability MRMK 60%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 136.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MRMK has more of the edges

UVM 3, MRMK 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UVMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UVM 26.2%, MRMK 24.8%. Defensive: UVM 77.0%, MRMK 60.1%

UVMBig

MRMK offense vs UVM defense

Offense 316th of 366 against a defense 134th, on the model’s ratings

MRMKBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UVM 14.3%, MRMK 14.8%. Forced: UVM 14.8%, MRMK 20.4%

MRMKBig

UVM offense vs MRMK defense

Offense 264th of 366 against a defense 139th, on the model’s ratings

MRMKBig

Three-pointers

UVM hits 33.3% and allows 35.3%; MRMK hits 32.7% and allows 30.3%. Threes are 44.6% and 46.1% of their shots

MRMKSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UVM 31.1, MRMK 38.2. Allowed: UVM 36.4, MRMK 37.1

MRMKSmall

Home court

MRMK at home. This season: MRMK 0-0 at home, UVM 0-0 away

UVMSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UVM 53.1 and allows 50.4; MRMK 49.1 and allows 46.7

Context

Schedule so far

UVM has played the 325th-hardest schedule, MRMK the 286th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UVM 31%, MRMK 37%. Transfers in: UVM 4, MRMK 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: UVM plays 65.2 a game (342nd fastest), MRMK 64.4 (357th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MRMK -2.9	—
Total	—	136.5	—
Projected score	—	UVM 66.8 · MRMK 69.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MRMK -1.6	—
1H total	63.9	—
1H projected score	UVM 31.2 · MRMK 32.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVM LWWLL	14-18	44%	5-10	—
MRMK LLWLL	20-14	59%	9-2	—

Venue/role: UVM away; MRMK home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVM UUOUU	17-15	53%	20-12
MRMK UOUUU	12-22	35%	23-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVM	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
MRMK	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Vermont

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	vs NE	W85–74WO

Merrimack

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ MSU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UVM 3–1 MRMKUVM leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · UVM 2-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 14, 2025-26	MRMK 59 @ UVM 66	UVM -6.5	UVM W
Nov 9, 2024-25	UVM 51 @ MRMK 65	MRMK +7.5	MRMK W
Nov 6, 2023-24	MRMK 55 @ UVM 67	UVM -15.5	MRMK W
Dec 4, 2022-23	UVM 66 @ MRMK 43	MRMK +6.5	UVM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Vermont

32 games played

Straight up

20-12

63% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1263%

W W L L L W L L W W W L L W W W L W W W L L W W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L W L W L L W L W W W L L W L L L W W W L L W L W L L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1553%

O O O O O O O U U U O O O O U U O U U U O O U O O U U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@BRWN	W 89-84	-5.5	L −0.5	131.5	O 173
Nov 15	@NE	W 85-74	+1.5	W +12.5	134.5	O 159
Nov 18	@BUF	L 90-94	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 184
Nov 24	vsLIB	L 73-79	+8.5	W +2.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsURI	L 65-80	+4.5	L −10.5	144.5	O 145
Nov 26	vsPRIN	W 79-74	-5.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 153
Nov 30	vsYALE	L 74-77	+6.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 151
Dec 3	@ORST	L 58-80	+3.5	L −18.5	143.5	U 138
Dec 6	@PEPP	W 65-56	-1.5	W +7.5	142.5	U 121
Dec 14	vsMRMK	W 66-59	-6.5	W +0.5	136.5	U 125
Dec 17	vsSIE	W 83-69	-2.5	W +11.5	134.5	O 152
Dec 20	vsIONA	L 78-83	-6.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 161
Dec 30	@PRIN	L 69-75	-3.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 144
Jan 3	@UNH	W 80-61	-7.5	W +11.5	139.5	O 141
Jan 8	vsBING	W 60-59	-20.5	L −19.5	140.5	U 119
Jan 15	vsME	W 67-62	-14.5	L −9.5	130.5	U 129
Jan 19	@UALB	L 68-75	-5.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 22	@UML	W 77-68	-4.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 145
Jan 24	@BRY	W 62-52	-8.5	W +1.5	133.5	U 114
Jan 29	vsUMBC	W 64-55	-8.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 119
Jan 31	vsNJIT	L 77-79	-13.5	L −15.5	139.5	O 156
Feb 5	@ME	L 70-76	-8.5	L −14.5	130.5	O 146
Feb 7	vsUNH	W 80-57	-9.5	W +13.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 12	@BING	W 73-65	-11.5	L −3.5	136.5	O 138
Feb 14	vsBRY	W 90-63	-13.5	W +13.5	133.5	O 153
Feb 19	@UMBC	L 62-75	-1.5	L −14.5	142.5	U 137
Feb 21	@NJIT	W 70-64	-6.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 134
Feb 26	vsUML	W 66-64	-9.5	L −7.5	146.5	U 130
Mar 3	vsUALB	W 69-56	-9.5	W +3.5	136.5	U 125
Mar 7	vsBRY	W 77-57	-11.5	W +8.5	130.5	O 134
Mar 10	vsNJIT	W 63-54	-10.5	L −1.5	134.5	U 117
Mar 14	@UMBC	L 59-74	+1.5	L −13.5	134.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRWN

W 89-84

−0.5

W 85-74

+12.5

BUF

L 90-94

−5.5

LIB

L 73-79

+2.5

URI

L 65-80

−10.5

PRIN

W 79-74

−0.5

YALE

L 74-77

+3.5

ORST

L 58-80

−18.5

PEPP

W 65-56

+7.5

MRMK

W 66-59

+0.5

SIE

W 83-69

+11.5

IONA

L 78-83

−11.5

PRIN

L 69-75

−9.5

UNH

W 80-61

+11.5

BING

W 60-59

−19.5

W 67-62

−9.5

UALB

L 68-75

−12.5

UML

W 77-68

+4.5

BRY

W 62-52

+1.5

UMBC

W 64-55

+0.5

NJIT

L 77-79

−15.5

L 70-76

−14.5

UNH

W 80-57

+13.5

BING

W 73-65

−3.5

BRY

W 90-63

+13.5

UMBC

L 62-75

−14.5

NJIT

W 70-64

−0.5

UML

W 66-64

−7.5

UALB

W 69-56

+3.5

BRY

W 77-57

+8.5

NJIT

W 63-54

−1.5

UMBC

L 59-74

−13.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRWN

W 89-84

+41.5

W 85-74

+24.5

BUF

L 90-94

+42.5

LIB

L 73-79

+10.5

URI

L 65-80

+0.5

PRIN

W 79-74

+12.5

YALE

L 74-77

+3.5

ORST

L 58-80

−5.5

PEPP

W 65-56

−21.5

MRMK

W 66-59

−11.5

SIE

W 83-69

+17.5

IONA

L 78-83

+8.5

PRIN

L 69-75

+7.5

UNH

W 80-61

+1.5

BING

W 60-59

−21.5

W 67-62

−1.5

UALB

L 68-75

+3.5

UML

W 77-68

−0.5

BRY

W 62-52

−19.5

UMBC

W 64-55

−22.5

NJIT

L 77-79

+16.5

L 70-76

+15.5

UNH

W 80-57

−1.5

BING

W 73-65

+1.5

BRY

W 90-63

+19.5

UMBC

L 62-75

−5.5

NJIT

W 70-64

−8.5

UML

W 66-64

−16.5

UALB

W 69-56

−11.5

BRY

W 77-57

+3.5

NJIT

W 63-54

−17.5

UMBC

L 59-74

−1.5

over 17under 15avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Merrimack

34 games played

Straight up

23-11

68% wins

Against the spread

20-14

59% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-22

35% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

23-1168%

L L L W W L L L W W W W L W W W W L W W L W W W W W W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1459%

L L L W W W L L W L W W L W W W W L W W L W W W W W W W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-2235%

U O U O O U U O U U U U U O U U U O O U U U U O U O U O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSDST	L 66-75	+6.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 6	@AUB	L 57-95	+23.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 152
Nov 11	@TAR	L 62-76	+4.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 15	@BU	W 91-79	+2.5	W +14.5	135.5	O 170
Nov 19	vsME	W 72-65	-6.5	W +0.5	130.5	O 137
Nov 21	@FLA	L 45-80	+36.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 125
Nov 28	@PENN	L 65-77	+2.5	L −9.5	152.5	U 142
Nov 29	vsHOF	L 58-78	+5.5	L −14.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 30	vsLAS	W 66-60	+2.5	W +8.5	132.5	U 126
Dec 4	vsRID	W 68-66	-9.5	L −7.5	138.5	U 134
Dec 7	vsFAIR	W 74-63	-3.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 10	@PRIN	W 59-56	+2.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 115
Dec 14	@UVM	L 59-66	+6.5	L −0.5	136.5	U 125
Dec 29	@SHU	W 80-72	+1.5	W +9.5	144.5	O 152
Jan 2	vsMSM	W 75-65	-3.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 140
Jan 4	vsMAN	W 73-66	-6.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 9	@SIE	W 63-59	+5.5	W +9.5	132.5	U 122
Jan 11	@SPU	L 63-76	+1.5	L −11.5	133.5	O 139
Jan 17	vsQUIN	W 83-71	+1.5	W +13.5	141.5	O 154
Jan 19	@MRST	W 68-55	+6.5	W +19.5	133.5	U 123
Jan 22	@IONA	L 60-61	-1.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 121
Jan 24	vsSPU	W 67-59	-2.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 126
Feb 1	vsSHU	W 75-58	-5.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 133
Feb 5	@MSM	W 87-70	-2.5	W +14.5	134.5	O 157
Feb 7	@RID	W 73-47	-8.5	W +17.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 12	vsMRST	W 81-56	-2.5	W +22.5	128.5	O 137
Feb 15	@QUIN	W 56-49	+3.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 105
Feb 20	vsSIE	W 79-72	-2.5	W +4.5	133.5	O 151
Feb 22	vsIONA	W 88-86	-6.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 174
Feb 27	@CAN	L 62-67	-8.5	L −13.5	129.5	U 129
Mar 1	@NIA	W 73-66	-7.5	L −0.5	126.5	O 139
Mar 6	vsSHU	W 70-48	-6.5	W +15.5	143.5	U 118
Mar 8	vsMRST	W 58-57	-2.5	L −1.5	128.5	U 115
Mar 10	vsSIE	L 54-64	-2.5	L −12.5	128.5	U 118

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

−14.5

TAR

L 62-76

−9.5

W 91-79

+14.5

W 72-65

+0.5

FLA

L 45-80

+1.5

PENN

L 65-77

−9.5

HOF

L 58-78

−14.5

LAS

W 66-60

+8.5

RID

W 68-66

−7.5

FAIR

W 74-63

+7.5

PRIN

W 59-56

+5.5

UVM

L 59-66

−0.5

SHU

W 80-72

+9.5

MSM

W 75-65

+6.5

MAN

W 73-66

+0.5

SIE

W 63-59

+9.5

SPU

L 63-76

−11.5

QUIN

W 83-71

+13.5

MRST

W 68-55

+19.5

IONA

L 60-61

−2.5

SPU

W 67-59

+5.5

SHU

W 75-58

+11.5

MSM

W 87-70

+14.5

RID

W 73-47

+17.5

MRST

W 81-56

+22.5

QUIN

W 56-49

+10.5

SIE

W 79-72

+4.5

IONA

W 88-86

−4.5

CAN

L 62-67

−13.5

NIA

W 73-66

−0.5

SHU

W 70-48

+15.5

MRST

W 58-57

−1.5

SIE

L 54-64

−12.5

covered 20didn’t cover 14avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDST

L 66-75

−2.5

AUB

L 57-95

+3.5

TAR

L 62-76

−4.5

W 91-79

+34.5

W 72-65

+6.5

FLA

L 45-80

−33.5

PENN

L 65-77

−10.5

HOF

L 58-78

+0.5

LAS

W 66-60

−6.5

RID

W 68-66

−4.5

FAIR

W 74-63

−7.5

PRIN

W 59-56

−19.5

UVM

L 59-66

−11.5

SHU

W 80-72

+7.5

MSM

W 75-65

−1.5

MAN

W 73-66

−9.5

SIE

W 63-59

−10.5

SPU

L 63-76

+5.5

QUIN

W 83-71

+12.5

MRST

W 68-55

−10.5

IONA

L 60-61

−22.5

SPU

W 67-59

−8.5

SHU

W 75-58

−14.5

MSM

W 87-70

+22.5

RID

W 73-47

−17.5

MRST

W 81-56

+8.5

QUIN

W 56-49

−36.5

SIE

W 79-72

+17.5

IONA

W 88-86

+37.5

CAN

L 62-67

−0.5

NIA

W 73-66

+12.5

SHU

W 70-48

−25.5

MRST

W 58-57

−13.5

SIE

L 54-64

−10.5

over 12under 22avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Vermont 1, Merrimack 1, even 3

VermontBetterMerrimack

G D. Yepdo TR10.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 24

MRMKSmall

G T. Dorset11.7 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 45

G J. Broom TR2 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 14

Even

G D. Anglin TR9.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 19

G M. Nkugwa2.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 31

No call

G A. Vladimir Soqui Urbano TR2 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

F G. Yalden16.1 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.1 ast Score 96

UVMBig

F T. Brogna6.1 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 16

F N. Barnett5.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 41

Even

F E. Wilborn TR2.3 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 30

VermontBetterMerrimack

UVM offense264th of 366 · -8.1

MRMKSmall

MRMK defense139th of 366 · -2.9

UVM defense134th of 366 · -2.5

UVMBig

MRMK offense316th of 366 · -10.3

Backcourt-5.2 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players

Frontcourt+3.3 · 2 players

UVMBig

Frontcourt-3.0 · 2 players

Bench-1.4 · 3 players

Even

Bench-0.6 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestUVM betterMRMK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Vermont

Guards

D. Yepdo32 min · TRJ. Broom15 min · TRM. Nkugwa13 minD. Glazkov13 min · TRK. Badru10 min · TRS. Clemons2 min

Forwards

G. Yalden26 minN. Barnett22 minM. BrunettoNewM. MasicNewS. GbiegbaNew

Merrimack

Guards

T. Dorset36 minD. Anglin28 min · TRA. Vladimir Soqui Urbano10 min · TRA. LesburtNewJ. AndersonNewQ. KwasniakNew

Forwards

T. Brogna29 minE. Wilborn9 min · TRD. Veillette8 minJ. MooreNewD. MunroNewJ. SkoricNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

UVM72.1 #237

MRMK68.5 #304

Points per possession

UVM1.11 #124

MRMK1.06 #221

Pace (possessions)

UVM65.2 #342

MRMK64.4 #357

Shooting

Effective FG%

UVM53.1 #95

MRMK49.1 #288

3-point %

UVM33.3 #208

MRMK32.7 #243

3-point attempt rate

UVM44.6 #77

MRMK46.1 #46

Free throw rate

UVM31.1 #279

MRMK38.2 #99

Possessions

Turnover rate

UVM14.3 #34

MRMK14.8 #55

Offensive rebound rate

UVM26.2 #318

MRMK24.8 #343

Assists per game

UVM12.3 #266

MRMK12.4 #257

Defense

Points allowed

UVM68.8 #44

MRMK66.5 #19

Points allowed per possession

UVM1.05 #96

MRMK1.03 #62

Opponent effective FG%

UVM50.4 #121

MRMK46.7 #17

Opponent 3-point %

UVM35.3 #267

MRMK30.3 #12

Turnovers forced

UVM14.8 #307

MRMK20.4 #16

Defensive rebound rate

UVM77.0 #2

MRMK60.1 #365

Steals per game

UVM4.5 #354

MRMK8.2 #32

Blocks per game

UVM2.7 #279

MRMK5.2 #13

UVM		MRMK
Scoring
72.1 #237	Points per game	68.5 #304
1.11 #124	Points per possession	1.06 #221
65.2 #342	Pace (possessions)	64.4 #357
Shooting
53.1 #95	Effective FG%	49.1 #288
33.3 #208	3-point %	32.7 #243
44.6 #77	3-point attempt rate	46.1 #46
31.1 #279	Free throw rate	38.2 #99
Possessions
14.3 #34	Turnover rate	14.8 #55
26.2 #318	Offensive rebound rate	24.8 #343
12.3 #266	Assists per game	12.4 #257
Defense
68.8 #44	Points allowed	66.5 #19
1.05 #96	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #62
50.4 #121	Opponent effective FG%	46.7 #17
35.3 #267	Opponent 3-point %	30.3 #12
14.8 #307	Turnovers forced	20.4 #16
77.0 #2	Defensive rebound rate	60.1 #365
4.5 #354	Steals per game	8.2 #32
2.7 #279	Blocks per game	5.2 #13

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Vermont

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-5 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ UMBC59–74
Wvs NJIT63–54
Wvs Bryant77–57
Wvs UAlbany69–56
Wvs UMass Lowell66–64

A week or more of rest.

Merrimack

23-11 in 2025-26 overall · 19-4 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Siena54–64
Wvs Marist58–57
Wvs Sacred Heart70–48
W@ Niagara73–66
L@ Canisius62–67

A week or more of rest.

Vermont Catamounts at Merrimack Warriors

What could decide it: MRMK has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Vermont

Merrimack

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Vermont

Merrimack