Vermont Catamounts at UAlbany Great Danes: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Jan 19, 1:00 PM ETBroadview Center · at UAlbany · Conference game

#186UVMVermont68final

Final

#301UALBUAlbany75▲ winner

Closing lineUVM -5.5✓ UALB covered by 12.5

Closing total139.5Over by 3.5

Season records: Vermont and UAlbany
UVM	This season	UALB
9-7	Record	3-12
7-9	ATS	6-9
11-5	O/U	6-9

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UVM 75–71 UALB · ✗ UVM (63%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UVM	29	39	68
UALB	37	38	75

1st half: UVM 29, UALB 37 (UALB by 8). The model had UVM by 2.4 and a total of 68.3 (actual 66).

Team stats

UVM		UALB
24-55 44%	Field goals	24-54 44%
9-24 38%	3-pointers	9-25 36%
11-15 73%	Free throws	18-24 75%
33 7 off	Rebounds	32 6 off
10	Assists	17
2	Steals	12
3	Blocks	4
13	Turnovers	9
17	Fouls	11
28	Points in paint	30
2	Fast-break points	11

Players

UVM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Benjamin Michaels F	36	2	6	1	1-2	0-0
Sean Blake G	33	11	6	4	5-12	1-2
TJ Hurley G	32	15	5	2	4-13	3-7
Gus Yalden F	31	21	8	2	8-13	1-4
Ben Johnson G	31	12	2	1	3-9	3-8
Bench
Lucas Mari G	15	5	0	0	2-5	1-3
David Simon F	12	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Momo Nkugwa G	7	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jackson Skipper F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ben Wesson, Noah Barnett, Sincere Clemons, Drew Bessette, TJ Long, Trey Woodyard, Chris Kuzemka

UALB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Amir Lindsey G	40	24	4	4	6-18	3-6
Zacharie Matulu G	40	7	13	6	2-6	0-4
Abdoulaye Fall G	34	16	4	3	4-8	3-5
Isaac Abidde F	31	16	4	0	7-10	1-4
Okechukwu Okeke F	23	4	1	0	2-3	0-0
Bench
Tarique Foster G	25	6	2	1	2-7	2-6
Miles Rose G	6	2	0	3	1-2	0-0
Ma'Kye Taylor F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Yaya Keita, Jaden Kempson, Wilkin Paulino, Ife West-Ingram, Sully Adewale, Nasir Muhammad, Will Richardson, Bautista Giralt

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UVM -5.5	UVM -3.9	UALB +1.6	W UALB covered
Total	139.5	145.9	Over 6.4	W Over
Projected score	—	UVM 74.9 · UALB 71

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UVM -2.4	UALB -8.0
1H total	68.3	66
1H projected score	UVM 35.4 · UALB 33	UVM 29 · UALB 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVM LLWLL	7-9	44%	3-4	4-7
UALB LLLWW	6-9	40%	2-1	4-9

Venue/role: UVM away, as favorite; UALB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVM OOOUU	11-5	69%	9-7
UALB UOOUU	6-9	40%	3-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVM	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
UALB	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

UVM 9–0 UALBUVM leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · UVM has won the last 9 meetings · UVM 7-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 4, 2024-25	UALB 71 @ UVM 79	UVM -4.5	UVM W
Feb 8, 2024-25	UVM 68 @ UALB 62	UALB -1.5	UVM W
Mar 9, 2023-24	UALB 72 @ UVM 75	UVM -16.5	UALB W
Feb 22, 2023-24	UVM 94 @ UALB 80	UALB +11.5	UVM W
Feb 1, 2023-24	UALB 59 @ UVM 81	UVM -12.5	UVM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Vermont

16 games played

Straight up

9-7

56% wins

Against the spread

7-9

44% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-5

69% overs · avg +6.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-756%

W W L L L W L L W W W L L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-944%

L W L W L L W L W W W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

11-569%

O O O O O O O U U U O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@BRWN	W 89-84	-5.5	L −0.5	131.5	O 173
Nov 15	@NE	W 85-74	+1.5	W +12.5	134.5	O 159
Nov 18	@BUF	L 90-94	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 184
Nov 24	vsLIB	L 73-79	+8.5	W +2.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsURI	L 65-80	+4.5	L −10.5	144.5	O 145
Nov 26	vsPRIN	W 79-74	-5.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 153
Nov 30	vsYALE	L 74-77	+6.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 151
Dec 3	@ORST	L 58-80	+3.5	L −18.5	143.5	U 138
Dec 6	@PEPP	W 65-56	-1.5	W +7.5	142.5	U 121
Dec 14	vsMRMK	W 66-59	-6.5	W +0.5	136.5	U 125
Dec 17	vsSIE	W 83-69	-2.5	W +11.5	134.5	O 152
Dec 20	vsIONA	L 78-83	-6.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 161
Dec 30	@PRIN	L 69-75	-3.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 144
Jan 3	@UNH	W 80-61	-7.5	W +11.5	139.5	O 141
Jan 8	vsBING	W 60-59	-20.5	L −19.5	140.5	U 119
Jan 15	vsME	W 67-62	-14.5	L −9.5	130.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRWN

W 89-84

−0.5

W 85-74

+12.5

BUF

L 90-94

−5.5

LIB

L 73-79

+2.5

URI

L 65-80

−10.5

PRIN

W 79-74

−0.5

YALE

L 74-77

+3.5

ORST

L 58-80

−18.5

PEPP

W 65-56

+7.5

MRMK

W 66-59

+0.5

SIE

W 83-69

+11.5

IONA

L 78-83

−11.5

PRIN

L 69-75

−9.5

UNH

W 80-61

+11.5

BING

W 60-59

−19.5

W 67-62

−9.5

covered 7didn’t cover 9avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRWN

W 89-84

+41.5

W 85-74

+24.5

BUF

L 90-94

+42.5

LIB

L 73-79

+10.5

URI

L 65-80

+0.5

PRIN

W 79-74

+12.5

YALE

L 74-77

+3.5

ORST

L 58-80

−5.5

PEPP

W 65-56

−21.5

MRMK

W 66-59

−11.5

SIE

W 83-69

+17.5

IONA

L 78-83

+8.5

PRIN

L 69-75

+7.5

UNH

W 80-61

+1.5

BING

W 60-59

−21.5

W 67-62

−1.5

over 11under 5avg +6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

UAlbany

15 games played

Straight up

3-12

20% wins

Against the spread

6-9

40% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-9

40% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-1220%

L L L L L L L L L W L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-940%

L L L W W L L W L W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-940%

U U U U U O O O O U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MARQ	L 53-80	+24.5	L −2.5	149.5	U 133
Nov 8	@MASS	L 62-83	+9.5	L −11.5	155.5	U 145
Nov 14	@URI	L 61-80	+15.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 21	@SIE	L 63-73	+10.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 136
Nov 28	vsCOLG	L 67-69	+7.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 136
Nov 29	vsFOR	L 68-88	+10.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 156
Dec 6	@COLU	L 65-93	+13.5	L −14.5	144.5	O 158
Dec 10	vsYALE	L 82-93	+17.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 175
Dec 13	@FAU	L 79-105	+18.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 184
Dec 17	@STBK	W 71-55	+10.5	W +26.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 21	vsCOR	L 75-83	+6.5	L −1.5	167.5	U 158
Dec 30	@SC	L 67-96	+19.5	L −9.5	148.5	O 163
Jan 3	@UML	L 71-83	+2.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 154
Jan 10	vsBRY	W 71-46	-3.5	W +21.5	136.5	U 117
Jan 15	vsBING	W 69-53	-8.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 122

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MARQ

L 53-80

−2.5

MASS

L 62-83

−11.5

URI

L 61-80

−3.5

SIE

L 63-73

+0.5

COLG

L 67-69

+5.5

FOR

L 68-88

−9.5

COLU

L 65-93

−14.5

YALE

L 82-93

+6.5

FAU

L 79-105

−7.5

STBK

W 71-55

+26.5

COR

L 75-83

−1.5

L 67-96

−9.5

UML

L 71-83

−9.5

BRY

W 71-46

+21.5

BING

W 69-53

+7.5

covered 6didn’t cover 9avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MARQ

L 53-80

−16.5

MASS

L 62-83

−10.5

URI

L 61-80

−9.5

SIE

L 63-73

−4.5

COLG

L 67-69

−5.5

FOR

L 68-88

+12.5

COLU

L 65-93

+13.5

YALE

L 82-93

+29.5

FAU

L 79-105

+36.5

STBK

W 71-55

−20.5

COR

L 75-83

−9.5

L 67-96

+14.5

UML

L 71-83

+3.5

BRY

W 71-46

−19.5

BING

W 69-53

−16.5

over 6under 9avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Vermont Catamounts at UAlbany Great Danes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Vermont

UAlbany

Vermont

UAlbany