UAlbany Great Danes vs Yale Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 10, 4:30 PM ETMassMutual Center · Neutral site

#301UALBUAlbany82final

Final

#126YALEYale93▲ winner

Closing lineYALE -17.5✓ UALB covered by 6.5

Closing total145.5Over by 29.5

Season records: UAlbany and Yale
UALB	This season	YALE
0-7	Record	8-1
2-5	ATS	5-4
2-5	O/U	6-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UALB 67–85 YALE · ✓ YALE (94%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UALB	37	45	82
YALE	47	46	93

1st half: UALB 37, YALE 47 (YALE by 10). The model had YALE by 10.6 and a total of 71.2 (actual 84).

Team stats

UALB		YALE
32-62 52%	Field goals	30-62 48%
11-23 48%	3-pointers	7-19 37%
7-19 37%	Free throws	26-34 76%
28 5 off	Rebounds	48 15 off
17	Assists	20
7	Steals	3
1	Blocks	2
7	Turnovers	10
27	Fouls	18
34	Points in paint	44
19	Fast-break points	7

Players

UALB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jaden Kempson G	37	18	5	3	7-10	2-3
Amir Lindsey G	33	17	2	8	7-17	2-4
Nasir Muhammad PG	32	18	3	5	5-12	5-8
Okechukwu Okeke F	29	7	8	0	3-4	0-0
Isaac Abidde F	15	5	3	1	2-6	1-3
Bench
Miles Rose G	19	4	1	0	2-3	0-0
Ife West-Ingram F	17	6	4	0	3-4	0-1
Ma'Kye Taylor F	12	4	0	0	2-3	0-1
Tarique Foster G	6	3	0	0	1-3	1-3

Did not play: Bautista Giralt, Abdoulaye Fall, Wilkin Paulino, Sully Adewale, Zacharie Matulu, Will Richardson, Yaya Keita

YALE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nick Townsend F	37	12	9	4	6-12	0-1
Trevor Mullin G	31	11	5	8	2-8	1-3
Isaac Celiscar F	30	12	8	3	2-5	0-0
Casey Simmons G	26	16	2	1	7-12	0-2
Samson Aletan C	25	13	10	1	4-6	0-0
Bench
Jordan Brathwaite G	23	16	7	1	5-8	4-6
Riley Fox F	15	6	1	0	2-8	2-7
Devon Arlington G	12	7	3	2	2-3	0-0
Jack Sullivan F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Alvin Loving, Jacob Tsai, Courtney Wallace, Daniel Ogunyemi, Jeannot Basima

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	YALE -17.5	YALE -17.9	YALE +0.4	L UALB covered
Total	145.5	152.2	Over 6.7	W Over
Projected score	—	UALB 67.2 · YALE 85

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	YALE -10.6	YALE -10.0
1H total	71.2	84
1H projected score	UALB 30.3 · YALE 40.9	UALB 37 · YALE 47

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UALB LWWLL	2-5	29%	1-1	2-5
YALE LWWLW	5-4	56%	2-1	4-4

Venue/role: UALB neutral site, as underdog; YALE neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UALB UUUOO	2-5	29%	0-7
YALE UUOOU	6-3	67%	8-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UALBlast 7	0-7 0%	2-5 29%	2-5 29%
YALElast 9	8-1 89%	5-4 56%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UALB 0–1 YALEYALE leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UALB 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 7, 2021-22	UALB 52 @ YALE 71	YALE -13	YALE W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UAlbany

7 games played

Straight up

0-7

0% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-70%

L L L L L L L

7 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-529%

L L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MARQ	L 53-80	+24.5	L −2.5	149.5	U 133
Nov 8	@MASS	L 62-83	+9.5	L −11.5	155.5	U 145
Nov 14	@URI	L 61-80	+15.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 21	@SIE	L 63-73	+10.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 136
Nov 28	vsCOLG	L 67-69	+7.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 136
Nov 29	vsFOR	L 68-88	+10.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 156
Dec 6	@COLU	L 65-93	+13.5	L −14.5	144.5	O 158

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MARQ

L 53-80

−2.5

MASS

L 62-83

−11.5

URI

L 61-80

−3.5

SIE

L 63-73

+0.5

COLG

L 67-69

+5.5

FOR

L 68-88

−9.5

COLU

L 65-93

−14.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MARQ

L 53-80

−16.5

MASS

L 62-83

−10.5

URI

L 61-80

−9.5

SIE

L 63-73

−4.5

COLG

L 67-69

−5.5

FOR

L 68-88

+12.5

COLU

L 65-93

+13.5

over 2under 5avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Yale

9 games played

Straight up

8-1

89% wins

Against the spread

5-4

56% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-3

67% overs · avg +6.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-189%

W W W L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-456%

W W L L L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-367%

O O O O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@NAVY	W 97-68	-5.5	W +23.5	147.5	O 165
Nov 11	@QUIN	W 97-60	-6.5	W +30.5	156.5	O 157
Nov 15	vsSTBK	W 86-79	-20.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 165
Nov 18	vsURI	L 77-86	-8.5	L −17.5	153.5	O 163
Nov 21	vsGB	W 73-67	-17.5	L −11.5	148.5	U 140
Nov 23	vsCOFC	W 74-63	-6.5	W +4.5	148.5	U 137
Nov 24	vsAKR	W 97-94	+1.5	W +4.5	156.5	O 191
Nov 30	@UVM	W 77-74	-6.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 151
Dec 7	vsUIC	W 80-66	-12.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NAVY

W 97-68

+23.5

QUIN

W 97-60

+30.5

STBK

W 86-79

−13.5

URI

L 77-86

−17.5

W 73-67

−11.5

COFC

W 74-63

+4.5

AKR

W 97-94

+4.5

UVM

W 77-74

−3.5

UIC

W 80-66

+1.5

covered 5didn’t cover 4avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NAVY

W 97-68

+17.5

QUIN

W 97-60

+0.5

STBK

W 86-79

+14.5

URI

L 77-86

+9.5

W 73-67

−8.5

COFC

W 74-63

−11.5

AKR

W 97-94

+34.5

UVM

W 77-74

+3.5

UIC

W 80-66

−2.5

over 6under 3avg +6.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UAlbany Great Danes vs Yale Bulldogs

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UAlbany

Yale

UAlbany

Yale