1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. MRMK @ MSU
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Merrimack Warriors at Michigan State Spartans

Breslin Center · at Michigan St
#236MRMKMerrimack
@
#10MSUMichigan St AP #6
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MRMKThis seasonMSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MSU 87–53 · win probability MSU 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 139.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MSU has more of the edges

MRMK 1, MSU 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MSUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MRMK 24.8%, MSU 37.8%. Defensive: MRMK 60.1%, MSU 77.6%
MSUBig
MRMK offense vs MSU defense
Offense 316th of 366 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MRMK has played the 286th-hardest schedule, MSU the 16th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MRMKBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MRMK 14.8%, MSU 17.1%. Forced: MRMK 20.4%, MSU 14.9%
MSUBig
MSU offense vs MRMK defense
Offense 21st of 366 against a defense 139th, on the model’s ratings
MSUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: MRMK 49.1 and allows 46.7; MSU 53.8 and allows 48.9
MSUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MRMK 38.2, MSU 35.9. Allowed: MRMK 37.1, MSU 30.2
MSUSmall
Home court
MSU at home. This season: MSU 0-0 at home, MRMK 0-0 away
MSUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MRMK 37%, MSU 63%. Transfers in: MRMK 3, MSU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: MRMK plays 64.4 a game (357th fastest), MSU 67.3 (264th). Faster games mean more points
MSUSmall
Three-pointers
MRMK hits 32.7% and allows 30.3%; MSU hits 36.3% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 46.1% and 36.4% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MSU -34.4—
Total—139.8—
Projected score—MRMK 52.7 · MSU 87.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMSU -20.3—
1H total65.4—
1H projected scoreMRMK 22.6 · MSU 42.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Michigan St has the better starters

Position by position: Merrimack 0, Michigan St 4, even 1
MerrimackBetterMichigan St
G T. Dorset11.7 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 45
MSUBig
G J. Fears15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 9.4 ast Score 99
G D. Anglin TR9.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 19
MSUBig
G K. Teng7.3 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast Score 63
G A. Vladimir Soqui Urbano TR2 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F C. Carr12 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 85
F T. Brogna6.1 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 16
MSUBig
F J. Scott5.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 53
F E. Wilborn TR2.3 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 30
MSUBig
C A. Bonke TR10.4 pts · 8.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 80
MerrimackBetterMichigan St
MRMK offense316th of 366 · -10.3
MSUBig
MSU defense5th of 366 · +9.3
MRMK defense139th of 366 · -2.9
MSUSmall
MSU offense21st of 366 · +7.6
Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players
MSUBig
Backcourt+7.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt-3.0 · 2 players
MSUBig
Frontcourt+4.8 · 3 players
Bench-0.6 · 1 player
MSUSmall
Bench+0.9 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestMRMK betterMSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Merrimack
Guards
T. Dorset36 minD. Anglin28 min · TRA. Vladimir Soqui Urbano10 min · TRA. LesburtNewJ. AndersonNewQ. KwasniakNew
Forwards
T. Brogna29 minE. Wilborn9 min · TRD. Veillette8 minJ. MooreNewD. MunroNewJ. SkoricNew
Michigan St
Guards
J. Fears32 minK. Teng18 minM. WatkinsNewJ. JervisNewC. MedlockNew
Forwards
C. Carr29 minJ. Scott21 minC. Ward15 minJ. McCulloch7 minB. Walton1 minC. Walton1 min
Centers
A. Bonke26 min · TRE. TaylorNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MRMKMSU
Scoring
68.5 #304Points per game78.8 #84
1.06 #221Points per possession1.17 #40
64.4 #357Pace (possessions)67.3 #264
Shooting
49.1 #288Effective FG%53.8 #72
32.7 #2433-point %36.3 #47
46.1 #463-point attempt rate36.4 #241
38.2 #99Free throw rate35.9 #157
Possessions
14.8 #55Turnover rate17.1 #217
24.8 #343Offensive rebound rate37.8 #10
12.4 #257Assists per game18.6 #4
Defense
66.5 #19Points allowed68.3 #37
1.03 #62Points allowed per possession1.02 #40
46.7 #17Opponent effective FG%48.9 #61
30.3 #12Opponent 3-point %33.0 #119
20.4 #16Turnovers forced14.9 #296
60.1 #365Defensive rebound rate77.6 #1
8.2 #32Steals per game5.1 #328
5.2 #13Blocks per game4.1 #59
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Merrimack

23-11 in 2025-26 overall · 19-4 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Siena54–64
  • Wvs Marist58–57
  • Wvs Sacred Heart70–48
  • W@ Niagara73–66
  • L@ Canisius62–67

A week or more of rest.

Michigan St

27-8 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn63–67
  • Wvs Louisville77–69
  • Wvs N Dakota St92–67
  • Lvs UCLA84–88
  • L@ Michigan80–90

A week or more of rest.