West Georgia Wolves at Vanderbilt Commodores: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 12, 2:00 PM ETMemorial Gymnasium (TN) · at Vanderbilt

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: West Georgia and Vanderbilt
WGA	This season	VAN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VAN 94–61 · win probability VAN 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 154.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VAN has more of the edges

WGA 1, VAN 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

VANBig

VAN offense vs WGA defense

Offense 22nd of 366 against a defense 312th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

WGA has played the 270th-hardest schedule, VAN the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

VANBig

WGA offense vs VAN defense

Offense 278th of 366 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

VANBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: WGA 49.6 and allows 53.4; VAN 55.3 and allows 49.0

VANBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WGA 15.9%, VAN 13.5%. Forced: WGA 14.7%, VAN 17.7%

VANSmall

Three-pointers

WGA hits 33.1% and allows 33.1%; VAN hits 35.6% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 33.0% and 44.2% of their shots

VANSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: WGA 29.2, VAN 38.1. Allowed: WGA 36.9, VAN 39.5

WGASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WGA 31.5%, VAN 31.2%. Defensive: WGA 71.0%, VAN 68.5%

VANSmall

Home court

VAN at home. This season: VAN 0-0 at home, WGA 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WGA 31%, VAN 26%. Transfers in: WGA 5, VAN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: WGA plays 71.0 a game (75th fastest), VAN 70.9 (80th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	VAN -33.0	—
Total	—	154.0	—
Projected score	—	WGA 60.5 · VAN 93.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VAN -19.5	—
1H total	72.0	—
1H projected score	WGA 26.2 · VAN 45.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WGA WWWWW	20-10	67%	9-6	—
VAN WWLLL	18-18	50%	8-8	—

Venue/role: WGA away; VAN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WGA OOUOU	16-14	53%	13-17
VAN UOUUU	17-19	47%	27-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WGA	5-5 50%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
VAN	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

West Georgia

No more games listed yet.

Vanderbilt

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

West Georgia

30 games played

Straight up

13-17

43% wins

Against the spread

20-10

67% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1743%

L L W W W L W L L L W W W L L L L W L L L W W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1067%

L W W W W W W L L W W W W L L L L W L W L W W L W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1453%

U U O U U O O U O O O O U U O O U U U O U O O U O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NEB	L 53-86	+24.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 139
Nov 10	@UCLA	L 62-83	+30.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 145
Nov 14	vsCIT	W 100-92	-6.5	W +1.5	150.5	O 192
Nov 17	@TNTC	W 61-59	+4.5	W +6.5	152.5	U 120
Nov 21	vsUPST	W 72-64	-2.5	W +5.5	153.5	U 136
Nov 23	@GT	L 66-82	+18.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 148
Dec 1	@TROY	W 93-89	+17.5	W +21.5	150.5	O 182
Dec 6	vsTNTC	L 59-87	-1.5	L −29.5	150.5	U 146
Dec 13	vsGASO	L 85-91	+3.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 176
Dec 22	@UGA	L 74-103	+36.5	W +7.5	173.5	O 177
Jan 1	vsBELL	W 87-85	+1.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 172
Jan 3	vsEKU	W 88-76	+1.5	W +13.5	156.5	O 164
Jan 8	@UNF	W 85-73	-2.5	W +9.5	164.5	U 158
Jan 10	@JAX	L 43-75	+1.5	L −30.5	141.5	U 118
Jan 15	@STET	L 86-95	-1.5	L −10.5	151.5	O 181
Jan 17	@FGCU	L 72-90	+9.5	L −8.5	152.5	O 162
Jan 22	vsCARK	L 65-86	+3.5	L −17.5	154.5	U 151
Jan 24	vsQUC	W 74-66	+7.5	W +15.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 28	@BELL	L 74-77	+2.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 151
Jan 31	vsAPSU	L 78-81	+7.5	W +4.5	150.5	O 159
Feb 5	vsUNF	L 73-81	-5.5	L −13.5	166.5	U 154
Feb 7	vsJAX	W 87-73	+1.5	W +15.5	138.5	O 160
Feb 11	@UNA	W 82-73	+1.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 155
Feb 14	@CARK	L 62-79	+10.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 141
Feb 18	@EKU	L 80-81	+7.5	W +6.5	154.5	O 161
Feb 21	@QUC	L 84-91	+11.5	W +4.5	161.5	O 175
Feb 25	vsLIP	W 84-78	+5.5	W +11.5	153.5	O 162
Feb 28	vsUNA	W 75-63	-4.5	W +7.5	146.5	U 138
Mar 4	vsUNF	W 93-85	-3.5	W +4.5	160.5	O 178
Mar 6	vsQUC	L 63-71	+8.5	W +0.5	164.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NEB

L 53-86

−8.5

UCLA

L 62-83

+9.5

CIT

W 100-92

+1.5

TNTC

W 61-59

+6.5

UPST

W 72-64

+5.5

L 66-82

+2.5

TROY

W 93-89

+21.5

TNTC

L 59-87

−29.5

GASO

L 85-91

−2.5

UGA

L 74-103

+7.5

BELL

W 87-85

+3.5

EKU

W 88-76

+13.5

UNF

W 85-73

+9.5

JAX

L 43-75

−30.5

STET

L 86-95

−10.5

FGCU

L 72-90

−8.5

CARK

L 65-86

−17.5

QUC

W 74-66

+15.5

BELL

L 74-77

−0.5

APSU

L 78-81

+4.5

UNF

L 73-81

−13.5

JAX

W 87-73

+15.5

UNA

W 82-73

+10.5

CARK

L 62-79

−6.5

EKU

L 80-81

+6.5

QUC

L 84-91

+4.5

LIP

W 84-78

+11.5

UNA

W 75-63

+7.5

UNF

W 93-85

+4.5

QUC

L 63-71

+0.5

covered 20didn’t cover 10avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NEB

L 53-86

−14.5

UCLA

L 62-83

−1.5

CIT

W 100-92

+41.5

TNTC

W 61-59

−32.5

UPST

W 72-64

−17.5

L 66-82

+3.5

TROY

W 93-89

+31.5

TNTC

L 59-87

−4.5

GASO

L 85-91

+21.5

UGA

L 74-103

+3.5

BELL

W 87-85

+20.5

EKU

W 88-76

+7.5

UNF

W 85-73

−6.5

JAX

L 43-75

−23.5

STET

L 86-95

+29.5

FGCU

L 72-90

+9.5

CARK

L 65-86

−3.5

QUC

W 74-66

−22.5

BELL

L 74-77

−0.5

APSU

L 78-81

+8.5

UNF

L 73-81

−12.5

JAX

W 87-73

+21.5

UNA

W 82-73

+9.5

CARK

L 62-79

−9.5

EKU

L 80-81

+6.5

QUC

L 84-91

+13.5

LIP

W 84-78

+8.5

UNA

W 75-63

−8.5

UNF

W 93-85

+17.5

QUC

L 63-71

−30.5

over 16under 14avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Vanderbilt

36 games played

Straight up

27-9

75% wins

Against the spread

18-18

50% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-19

47% overs · avg +1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

27-975%

W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L L L W W W L W W L L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1850%

W W W L L L W W W L L W W W W L L L L W W L L W W L L W L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1947%

O O U O O U O O U U U O O U O U U O U U U U O U U O U O O O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsLIP	W 105-61	-26.5	W +17.5	154.5	O 166
Nov 8	@UCF	W 105-93	-10.5	W +1.5	166.5	O 198
Nov 12	vsEKU	W 92-62	-28.5	W +1.5	168.5	U 154
Nov 15	vsUAPB	W 104-75	-41.5	L −12.5	172.5	O 179
Nov 20	vsTXSO	W 109-74	-36.5	L −1.5	164.5	O 183
Nov 26	vsWKU	W 83-78	-18.5	L −13.5	168.5	U 161
Nov 27	vsVCU	W 89-74	-6.5	W +8.5	161.5	O 163
Nov 28	vsSMC	W 96-71	-4.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 167
Dec 3	vsSMU	W 88-69	-10.5	W +8.5	165.5	U 157
Dec 13	vsCARK	W 83-72	-36.5	L −25.5	158.5	U 155
Dec 17	@MEM	W 77-70	-9.5	L −2.5	159.5	U 147
Dec 21	@WAKE	W 98-67	-5.5	W +25.5	164.5	O 165
Dec 29	vsNHVN	W 96-53	-39.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 149
Jan 3	@SC	W 83-71	-9.5	W +2.5	155.5	U 154
Jan 7	vsALA	W 96-90	-3.5	W +2.5	176.5	O 186
Jan 10	vsLSU	W 84-73	-13.5	L −2.5	159.5	U 157
Jan 14	@TEX	L 64-80	-3.5	L −19.5	163.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsFLA	L 94-98	+1.5	L −2.5	164.5	O 192
Jan 20	@ARK	L 68-93	+1.5	L −23.5	173.5	U 161
Jan 24	@MSST	W 88-56	-7.5	W +24.5	159.5	U 144
Jan 27	vsUK	W 80-55	-5.5	W +19.5	155.5	U 135
Jan 31	vsMISS	W 71-68	-10.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 139
Feb 7	vsOU	L 91-92	-11.5	L −12.5	159.5	O 183
Feb 10	@AUB	W 84-76	+3.5	W +11.5	161.5	U 160
Feb 14	vsTA&M	W 82-69	-7.5	W +5.5	165.5	U 151
Feb 18	@MIZ	L 80-81	-3.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 161
Feb 21	vsTENN	L 65-69	-2.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 134
Feb 25	vsUGA	W 88-80	-7.5	W +0.5	163.5	O 168
Feb 28	@UK	L 77-91	+1.5	L −12.5	157.5	O 168
Mar 3	@MISS	W 89-86	-7.5	L −4.5	155.5	O 175
Mar 7	@TENN	W 86-82	+2.5	W +6.5	146.5	O 168
Mar 13	vsTENN	W 75-68	+1.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 143
Mar 14	vsFLA	W 91-74	+7.5	W +24.5	161.5	O 165
Mar 15	vsARK	L 75-86	-2.5	L −13.5	165.5	U 161
Mar 19	vsMCN	W 78-68	-12.5	L −2.5	148.5	U 146
Mar 21	vsNEB	L 72-74	-1.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LIP

W 105-61

+17.5

UCF

W 105-93

+1.5

EKU

W 92-62

+1.5

UAPB

W 104-75

−12.5

TXSO

W 109-74

−1.5

WKU

W 83-78

−13.5

VCU

W 89-74

+8.5

SMC

W 96-71

+20.5

SMU

W 88-69

+8.5

CARK

W 83-72

−25.5

MEM

W 77-70

−2.5

WAKE

W 98-67

+25.5

NHVN

W 96-53

+3.5

W 83-71

+2.5

ALA

W 96-90

+2.5

LSU

W 84-73

−2.5

TEX

L 64-80

−19.5

FLA

L 94-98

−2.5

ARK

L 68-93

−23.5

MSST

W 88-56

+24.5

W 80-55

+19.5

MISS

W 71-68

−7.5

L 91-92

−12.5

AUB

W 84-76

+11.5

TA&M

W 82-69

+5.5

MIZ

L 80-81

−4.5

TENN

L 65-69

−6.5

UGA

W 88-80

+0.5

L 77-91

−12.5

MISS

W 89-86

−4.5

TENN

W 86-82

+6.5

TENN

W 75-68

+8.5

FLA

W 91-74

+24.5

ARK

L 75-86

−13.5

MCN

W 78-68

−2.5

NEB

L 72-74

−3.5

covered 18didn’t cover 18avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LIP

W 105-61

+11.5

UCF

W 105-93

+31.5

EKU

W 92-62

−14.5

UAPB

W 104-75

+6.5

TXSO

W 109-74

+18.5

WKU

W 83-78

−7.5

VCU

W 89-74

+1.5

SMC

W 96-71

+17.5

SMU

W 88-69

−8.5

CARK

W 83-72

−3.5

MEM

W 77-70

−12.5

WAKE

W 98-67

+0.5

NHVN

W 96-53

+3.5

W 83-71

−1.5

ALA

W 96-90

+9.5

LSU

W 84-73

−2.5

TEX

L 64-80

−19.5

FLA

L 94-98

+27.5

ARK

L 68-93

−12.5

MSST

W 88-56

−15.5

W 80-55

−20.5

MISS

W 71-68

−10.5

L 91-92

+23.5

AUB

W 84-76

−1.5

TA&M

W 82-69

−14.5

MIZ

L 80-81

+6.5

TENN

L 65-69

−16.5

UGA

W 88-80

+4.5

L 77-91

+10.5

MISS

W 89-86

+19.5

TENN

W 86-82

+21.5

TENN

W 75-68

−4.5

FLA

W 91-74

+3.5

ARK

L 75-86

−4.5

MCN

W 78-68

−2.5

NEB

L 72-74

−0.5

over 17under 19avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Vanderbilt has the better starters

Position by position: West Georgia 0, Vanderbilt 4, even 1

West GeorgiaBetterVanderbilt

G C. Lewless12.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.6 ast Score 37

VANBig

G T. Tanner19.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.1 ast Score 100

G L. Hutchinson TR3.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 6

VANBig

G A. Glass TR16.1 pts · 3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 86

G J. Redmond TR6 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 26

VANSmall

F S. Williams-Adams TR7 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 55

F K. Chime5 pts · 5.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 34

VANBig

F B. Dak TR11.5 pts · 6.5 reb · 1.4 ast Score 90

F D. Simon TR2.9 pts · 2 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

C B. Buyuktuncel TR6.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 61

West GeorgiaBetterVanderbilt

WGA offense278th of 366 · -8.5

VANBig

VAN defense29th of 366 · +3.7

WGA defense312th of 366 · -8.1

VANBig

VAN offense22nd of 366 · +7.6

Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players

VANBig

Backcourt+10.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players

VANBig

Frontcourt+3.7 · 3 players

Bench-2.1 · 5 players

VANSmall

Bench-0.4 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestWGA betterVAN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

West Georgia

Guards

C. Lewless29 minL. Hutchinson17 min · TRJ. Redmond17 min · TRC. Merritt4 minA. Williams2 min · TRM. Young1 min

Forwards

K. Chime20 minD. Simon10 min · TRX. Shegog8 minM. Destremau7 min · TRM. SmithNewA. SempereNew

Vanderbilt

Guards

T. Tanner34 minA. Glass29 min · TRA. BrownNewM. HawkinsNewB. AllenNewC. ByingtonNew

Forwards

S. Williams-Adams27 min · TRB. Dak26 min · TRT. Barrett23 min · TRC. Bing15 minE. MgbakoNewG. NesmithNew

Centers

B. Buyuktuncel24 min · TRJ. Leverett4 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WGA75.3 #156

VAN85.7 #14

Points per possession

WGA1.06 #224

VAN1.21 #9

Pace (possessions)

WGA71.0 #75

VAN70.9 #80

Shooting

Effective FG%

WGA49.6 #261

VAN55.3 #31

3-point %

WGA33.1 #222

VAN35.6 #86

3-point attempt rate

WGA33.0 #316

VAN44.2 #85

Free throw rate

WGA29.2 #329

VAN38.1 #101

Possessions

Turnover rate

WGA15.9 #130

VAN13.5 #15

Offensive rebound rate

WGA31.5 #142

VAN31.2 #158

Assists per game

WGA12.3 #265

VAN16.3 #40

Defense

Points allowed

WGA80.5 #326

VAN75.0 #187

Points allowed per possession

WGA1.13 #297

VAN1.06 #99

Opponent effective FG%

WGA53.4 #281

VAN49.0 #67

Opponent 3-point %

WGA33.1 #129

VAN32.6 #96

Turnovers forced

WGA14.7 #312

VAN17.7 #112

Defensive rebound rate

WGA71.0 #102

VAN68.5 #231

Steals per game

WGA6.4 #191

VAN7.9 #40

Blocks per game

WGA4.7 #25

VAN4.5 #36

WGA		VAN
Scoring
75.3 #156	Points per game	85.7 #14
1.06 #224	Points per possession	1.21 #9
71.0 #75	Pace (possessions)	70.9 #80
Shooting
49.6 #261	Effective FG%	55.3 #31
33.1 #222	3-point %	35.6 #86
33.0 #316	3-point attempt rate	44.2 #85
29.2 #329	Free throw rate	38.1 #101
Possessions
15.9 #130	Turnover rate	13.5 #15
31.5 #142	Offensive rebound rate	31.2 #158
12.3 #265	Assists per game	16.3 #40
Defense
80.5 #326	Points allowed	75.0 #187
1.13 #297	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #99
53.4 #281	Opponent effective FG%	49.0 #67
33.1 #129	Opponent 3-point %	32.6 #96
14.7 #312	Turnovers forced	17.7 #112
71.0 #102	Defensive rebound rate	68.5 #231
6.4 #191	Steals per game	7.9 #40
4.7 #25	Blocks per game	4.5 #36

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

West Georgia

13-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Queens University Royals63–71
Wvs North Florida93–85
Wvs North Alabama75–63
Wvs Lipscomb84–78
L@ Queens University Royals84–91

A week or more of rest.

Vanderbilt

27-9 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Nebraska72–74
Wvs McNeese78–68
Lvs Arkansas75–86
Wvs Florida91–74
Wvs Tennessee75–68

A week or more of rest.

West Georgia Wolves at Vanderbilt Commodores

What could decide it: VAN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

West Georgia

Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

West Georgia

Vanderbilt