Long Beach State Beach at Illinois State Redbirds: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 10, 7:00 PM ETCEFCU Arena · at Illinois St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Long Beach St and Illinois St
LBSU	This season	ILST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ILST 80–65 · win probability ILST 91%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ILST has more of the edges

LBSU 0, ILST 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

ILSTBig

LBSU offense vs ILST defense

Offense 285th of 366 against a defense 102nd, on the model’s ratings

ILSTBig

ILST offense vs LBSU defense

Offense 133rd of 366 against a defense 300th, on the model’s ratings

ILSTBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: LBSU 50.6 and allows 53.7; ILST 53.6 and allows 49.8

ILSTBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: LBSU 30.7, ILST 31.6. Allowed: LBSU 42.3, ILST 32.3

ILSTSmall

Three-pointers

LBSU hits 32.7% and allows 34.4%; ILST hits 34.9% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 34.8% and 43.3% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: LBSU plays 71.7 a game (46th fastest), ILST 67.7 (241st). Faster games mean more points

ILSTSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LBSU 8%, ILST 37%. Transfers in: LBSU 5, ILST 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

ILSTSmall

Home court

ILST at home. This season: ILST 0-0 at home, LBSU 0-0 away

ILSTSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LBSU 26.2%, ILST 28.0%. Defensive: LBSU 72.2%, ILST 74.6%

Context

Schedule so far

LBSU has played the 152nd-hardest schedule, ILST the 135th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LBSU 18.0%, ILST 16.8%. Forced: LBSU 17.5%, ILST 16.0%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ILST -15.2	—
Total	—	145.6	—
Projected score	—	LBSU 65.2 · ILST 80.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ILST -8.9	—
1H total	68.1	—
1H projected score	LBSU 29.6 · ILST 38.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LBSU WLLLW	16-14	53%	8-8	—
ILST LWWWL	19-16	54%	10-5	—

Venue/role: LBSU away; ILST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LBSU UOOUO	20-10	67%	8-22
ILST UUOUO	15-20	43%	22-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LBSU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
ILST	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Long Beach St

No more games listed yet.

Illinois St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	vs NDSU	W77–68WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LBSU 0–2 ILSTILST leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · ILST has won the last 2 meetings · LBSU 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 16, 2025-26	ILST 82 @ LBSU 80	LBSU +8.5	LBSU W
Nov 20, 2023-24	ILST 61 vs LBSU 52	LBSU -6.5	ILST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Long Beach St

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-10

67% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L W L L L W L W L W W W L L L L L L L L L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1453%

L L W W L L W W W W L W W W L W W L W L W W L L L W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

20-1067%

U O U O O O O O O O O O U U O O O U O U O O O U U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@SDSU	L 45-77	+25.5	L −6.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 8	@FRES	L 62-82	+6.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 144
Nov 12	@PAC	L 66-69	+12.5	W +9.5	141.5	U 135
Nov 16	vsILST	L 80-82	+8.5	W +6.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 21	vsMTST	L 72-78	+3.5	L −2.5	140.5	O 150
Nov 26	@PORT	L 73-93	+5.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 166
Nov 30	vsUSD	W 76-72	+2.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 148
Dec 4	@UCSB	L 77-84	+13.5	W +6.5	141.5	O 161
Dec 6	vsUCSD	L 74-80	+8.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 154
Dec 9	@SJSU	L 83-89	+7.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 172
Dec 18	vsPEPP	W 81-78	-4.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 159
Dec 21	@ISU	L 60-91	+37.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 151
Jan 3	vsCP	W 74-66	-2.5	W +5.5	162.5	U 140
Jan 8	@UCI	L 64-74	+10.5	W +0.5	142.5	U 138
Jan 10	vsCSUB	W 81-75	-6.5	L −0.5	142.5	O 156
Jan 15	vsUCR	W 88-73	-5.5	W +9.5	141.5	O 161
Jan 17	@CSUN	W 87-80	+7.5	W +14.5	158.5	O 167
Jan 22	@CSUF	L 61-71	+3.5	L −6.5	160.5	U 132
Jan 24	vsUCSB	L 71-74	+4.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 145
Jan 29	@UCR	L 61-71	-1.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 132
Jan 31	vsHAW	L 82-89	+8.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 171
Feb 5	@UCSD	L 74-77	+10.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 151
Feb 12	vsCSUF	L 82-86	-2.5	L −6.5	156.5	O 168
Feb 14	@UCD	L 54-71	+4.5	L −12.5	149.5	U 125
Feb 19	vsUCI	L 58-69	+5.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 127
Feb 21	vsCSUN	L 76-78	+2.5	W +0.5	157.5	U 154
Feb 26	@CP	L 92-102	+5.5	L −4.5	162.5	O 194
Feb 28	@CSUB	W 88-87	-3.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 175
Mar 5	vsUCD	L 70-76	+1.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 146
Mar 7	@HAW	W 84-75	+14.5	W +23.5	150.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SDSU

L 45-77

−6.5

FRES

L 62-82

−13.5

PAC

L 66-69

+9.5

ILST

L 80-82

+6.5

MTST

L 72-78

−2.5

PORT

L 73-93

−14.5

USD

W 76-72

+6.5

UCSB

L 77-84

+6.5

UCSD

L 74-80

+2.5

SJSU

L 83-89

+1.5

PEPP

W 81-78

−1.5

ISU

L 60-91

+6.5

W 74-66

+5.5

UCI

L 64-74

+0.5

CSUB

W 81-75

−0.5

UCR

W 88-73

+9.5

CSUN

W 87-80

+14.5

CSUF

L 61-71

−6.5

UCSB

L 71-74

+1.5

UCR

L 61-71

−11.5

HAW

L 82-89

+1.5

UCSD

L 74-77

+7.5

CSUF

L 82-86

−6.5

UCD

L 54-71

−12.5

UCI

L 58-69

−5.5

CSUN

L 76-78

+0.5

L 92-102

−4.5

CSUB

W 88-87

−2.5

UCD

L 70-76

−4.5

HAW

W 84-75

+23.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SDSU

L 45-77

−13.5

FRES

L 62-82

+1.5

PAC

L 66-69

−6.5

ILST

L 80-82

+20.5

MTST

L 72-78

+9.5

PORT

L 73-93

+17.5

USD

W 76-72

+0.5

UCSB

L 77-84

+19.5

UCSD

L 74-80

+8.5

SJSU

L 83-89

+30.5

PEPP

W 81-78

+17.5

ISU

L 60-91

+1.5

W 74-66

−22.5

UCI

L 64-74

−4.5

CSUB

W 81-75

+13.5

UCR

W 88-73

+19.5

CSUN

W 87-80

+8.5

CSUF

L 61-71

−28.5

UCSB

L 71-74

+0.5

UCR

L 61-71

−12.5

HAW

L 82-89

+26.5

UCSD

L 74-77

+6.5

CSUF

L 82-86

+11.5

UCD

L 54-71

−24.5

UCI

L 58-69

−17.5

CSUN

L 76-78

−3.5

L 92-102

+31.5

CSUB

W 88-87

+22.5

UCD

L 70-76

−3.5

HAW

W 84-75

+8.5

over 20under 10avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Illinois St

35 games played

Straight up

22-13

63% wins

Against the spread

19-16

54% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-20

43% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1363%

L W L W W W W W W L W W W W L L L W W L W L W L W L W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1654%

L W L L W W W L W W W W W W L L L W L L W L L L W L W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2043%

U U U O U O U O O O U U U U O U O O U U U U O O O U U U O O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@OHIO	L 68-72	+1.5	L −2.5	161.5	U 140
Nov 9	vsCOR	W 76-65	-6.5	W +4.5	164.5	U 141
Nov 14	vsUSC	L 67-87	+15.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 154
Nov 16	@LBSU	W 82-80	-8.5	L −6.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 23	vsCCU	W 94-42	-12.5	W +39.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 27	vsCLT	W 79-69	-5.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 148
Nov 28	vsFUR	W 72-65	-3.5	W +3.5	145.5	U 137
Dec 3	vsEKU	W 89-78	-12.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 167
Dec 6	vsCHST	W 95-53	-20.5	W +21.5	144.5	O 148
Dec 13	vsUSU	L 78-83	+8.5	W +3.5	148.5	O 161
Dec 18	@SIU	W 75-68	+1.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 143
Dec 21	vsINST	W 85-65	-13.5	W +6.5	152.5	U 150
Dec 29	@DRKE	W 73-56	-4.5	W +12.5	145.5	U 129
Jan 1	vsEVAN	W 73-47	-12.5	W +13.5	144.5	U 120
Jan 7	@VAL	L 71-77	-6.5	L −12.5	138.5	O 148
Jan 10	vsUIC	L 59-63	-10.5	L −14.5	141.5	U 122
Jan 14	@INST	L 89-94	-6.5	L −11.5	148.5	O 183
Jan 17	vsBRAD	W 88-62	-5.5	W +20.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 21	vsUNI	W 59-54	-6.5	L −1.5	132.5	U 113
Jan 24	@BEL	L 69-80	+5.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 149
Jan 28	@MUR	W 70-65	+3.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 135
Feb 3	vsSIU	L 50-54	-8.5	L −12.5	140.5	U 104
Feb 6	vsDRKE	W 86-76	-10.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 162
Feb 9	@EVAN	L 80-88	-10.5	L −18.5	137.5	O 168
Feb 12	vsVAL	W 86-64	-8.5	W +13.5	138.5	O 150
Feb 15	@UIC	L 56-83	-1.5	L −28.5	140.5	U 139
Feb 18	vsMUR	W 78-61	-2.5	W +14.5	158.5	U 139
Feb 21	@BRAD	L 60-74	+3.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 134
Feb 25	@UNI	W 71-69	+4.5	W +6.5	132.5	O 140
Mar 1	vsBEL	W 81-74	+1.5	W +8.5	150.5	O 155
Mar 6	vsUNI	L 52-74	+1.5	L −20.5	130.5	U 126
Mar 18	vsKENT	W 79-58	-4.5	W +16.5	154.5	U 137
Mar 22	@WAKE	W 78-75	+8.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 153
Mar 25	@DAY	W 61-55	+7.5	W +13.5	140.5	U 116
Apr 2	vsAUB	L 66-88	+7.5	L −14.5	149.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OHIO

L 68-72

−2.5

COR

W 76-65

+4.5

USC

L 67-87

−4.5

LBSU

W 82-80

−6.5

CCU

W 94-42

+39.5

CLT

W 79-69

+4.5

FUR

W 72-65

+3.5

EKU

W 89-78

−1.5

CHST

W 95-53

+21.5

USU

L 78-83

+3.5

SIU

W 75-68

+8.5

INST

W 85-65

+6.5

DRKE

W 73-56

+12.5

EVAN

W 73-47

+13.5

VAL

L 71-77

−12.5

UIC

L 59-63

−14.5

INST

L 89-94

−11.5

BRAD

W 88-62

+20.5

UNI

W 59-54

−1.5

BEL

L 69-80

−5.5

MUR

W 70-65

+8.5

SIU

L 50-54

−12.5

DRKE

W 86-76

−0.5

EVAN

L 80-88

−18.5

VAL

W 86-64

+13.5

UIC

L 56-83

−28.5

MUR

W 78-61

+14.5

BRAD

L 60-74

−10.5

UNI

W 71-69

+6.5

BEL

W 81-74

+8.5

UNI

L 52-74

−20.5

KENT

W 79-58

+16.5

WAKE

W 78-75

+11.5

DAY

W 61-55

+13.5

AUB

L 66-88

−14.5

covered 19didn’t cover 16avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OHIO

L 68-72

−21.5

COR

W 76-65

−23.5

USC

L 67-87

−1.5

LBSU

W 82-80

+20.5

CCU

W 94-42

−10.5

CLT

W 79-69

+8.5

FUR

W 72-65

−8.5

EKU

W 89-78

+12.5

CHST

W 95-53

+3.5

USU

L 78-83

+12.5

SIU

W 75-68

−10.5

INST

W 85-65

−2.5

DRKE

W 73-56

−16.5

EVAN

W 73-47

−24.5

VAL

L 71-77

+9.5

UIC

L 59-63

−19.5

INST

L 89-94

+34.5

BRAD

W 88-62

+2.5

UNI

W 59-54

−19.5

BEL

L 69-80

−1.5

MUR

W 70-65

−24.5

SIU

L 50-54

−36.5

DRKE

W 86-76

+17.5

EVAN

L 80-88

+30.5

VAL

W 86-64

+11.5

UIC

L 56-83

−1.5

MUR

W 78-61

−19.5

BRAD

L 60-74

−11.5

UNI

W 71-69

+7.5

BEL

W 81-74

+4.5

UNI

L 52-74

−4.5

KENT

W 79-58

−17.5

WAKE

W 78-75

+0.5

DAY

W 61-55

−24.5

AUB

L 66-88

+4.5

over 15under 20avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Long Beach St 2, Illinois St 2, even 1

Long Beach StBetterIllinois St

G J. Payne TR6.9 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 40

ILSTSmall

G M. Messina-Moore TR10.9 pts · 3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 57

G Y. Sissoko TR2.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Score 32

ILSTSmall

G J. Kinziger11.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 51

G C. Jones3.1 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

G D. Garang TR10.6 pts · 5.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 30

F G. Brcic TR4.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 39

LBSUSmall

G Z. King TR7.1 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 24

C N. Amenhauser TR5.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 57

LBSUSmall

G D. Burch TR9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32

Long Beach StBetterIllinois St

LBSU offense285th of 366 · -8.8

ILSTBig

ILST defense102nd of 366 · -0.9

LBSU defense300th of 366 · -7.7

ILSTBig

ILST offense133rd of 366 · -3.9

Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players

LBSUBig

Backcourt-6.6 · 5 players

Frontcourt-0.3 · 2 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-1.9 · 2 players

ILSTBig

Bench+3.4 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestLBSU betterILST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Long Beach St

Guards

J. Payne22 min · TRY. Sissoko11 min · TRC. Jones10 minJ. TenganNewJ. GrayNewM. AdamsNew

Forwards

G. Brcic17 min · TRK. Smith8 min · TRJ. Chaikovsky6 minB. WrightNewH. LauNewM. VanlaninghamNew

Centers

N. Amenhauser12 min · TR

Illinois St

Guards

M. Messina-Moore33 min · TRJ. Kinziger33 minD. Garang30 min · TRZ. King27 min · TRD. Burch23 min · TRM. Klabo16 min

Forwards

C. Walker23 minL. Semona6 min · TRN. ClevelandNewN. AllenNewL. WolfNewM. SzafoniNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LBSU73.2 #219

ILST74.1 #191

Points per possession

LBSU1.02 #303

ILST1.09 #151

Pace (possessions)

LBSU71.7 #46

ILST67.7 #241

Shooting

Effective FG%

LBSU50.6 #207

ILST53.6 #77

3-point %

LBSU32.7 #245

ILST34.9 #126

3-point attempt rate

LBSU34.8 #280

ILST43.3 #106

Free throw rate

LBSU30.7 #287

ILST31.6 #266

Possessions

Turnover rate

LBSU18.0 #271

ILST16.8 #193

Offensive rebound rate

LBSU26.2 #315

ILST28.0 #268

Assists per game

LBSU12.3 #264

ILST13.5 #179

Defense

Points allowed

LBSU79.0 #297

ILST69.1 #49

Points allowed per possession

LBSU1.10 #220

ILST1.02 #48

Opponent effective FG%

LBSU53.7 #290

ILST49.8 #90

Opponent 3-point %

LBSU34.4 #212

ILST33.0 #122

Turnovers forced

LBSU17.5 #119

ILST16.0 #221

Defensive rebound rate

LBSU72.2 #60

ILST74.6 #13

Steals per game

LBSU6.5 #173

ILST5.5 #294

Blocks per game

LBSU2.9 #250

ILST2.3 #326

LBSU		ILST
Scoring
73.2 #219	Points per game	74.1 #191
1.02 #303	Points per possession	1.09 #151
71.7 #46	Pace (possessions)	67.7 #241
Shooting
50.6 #207	Effective FG%	53.6 #77
32.7 #245	3-point %	34.9 #126
34.8 #280	3-point attempt rate	43.3 #106
30.7 #287	Free throw rate	31.6 #266
Possessions
18.0 #271	Turnover rate	16.8 #193
26.2 #315	Offensive rebound rate	28.0 #268
12.3 #264	Assists per game	13.5 #179
Defense
79.0 #297	Points allowed	69.1 #49
1.10 #220	Points allowed per possession	1.02 #48
53.7 #290	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #90
34.4 #212	Opponent 3-point %	33.0 #122
17.5 #119	Turnovers forced	16.0 #221
72.2 #60	Defensive rebound rate	74.6 #13
6.5 #173	Steals per game	5.5 #294
2.9 #250	Blocks per game	2.3 #326

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Long Beach St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

W@ Hawai'i84–75
Lvs UC Davis70–76
W@ Bakersfield88–87
L@ Cal Poly92–102
Lvs CSU Northridge76–78

A week or more of rest.

Illinois St

22-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Auburn66–88
W@ Dayton61–55
W@ Wake Forest78–75
Wvs Kent State79–58
Lvs Northern Iowa52–74

A week or more of rest.

Long Beach State Beach at Illinois State Redbirds

What could decide it: ILST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Long Beach St

Illinois St

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Long Beach St

Illinois St