Athletics-Recreation Center · at Valparaiso · Conference game
Closing line
ILST -6.5✓ VAL covered by 12.5
ILST -6.5✓ VAL covered by 12.5Closing total138.5Over by 9.5
| ILST | This season | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11-3 | Record | 6-8 |
| 10-4 | ATS | 8-6 |
| 5-9 | O/U | 6-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ILST 74–66 VAL · ✗ ILST (74%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILST | 23 | 48 | 71 |
| VAL | 35 | 42 | 77 |
1st half: ILST 23, VAL 35 (VAL by 12). The model had ILST by 4.5 and a total of 65.6 (actual 58).
Team stats
| ILST | VAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-62 42% | Field goals | 21-41 51% |
| 5-16 31% | 3-pointers | 9-12 75% |
| 14-23 61% | Free throws | 26-35 74% |
| 36 17 off | Rebounds | 28 4 off |
| 8 | Assists | 12 |
| 5 | Steals | 6 |
| 2 | Blocks | 3 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 26 | Fouls | 23 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 20 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 3 |
Players
| ILST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Kinziger G | 34 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 5-10 | 2-4 |
| Chase Walker F | 30 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 8-19 | 0-0 |
| Ty'Reek Coleman G | 28 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 4-10 | 1-2 |
| Boden Skunberg G | 24 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Ty Pence G | 19 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Landon Wolf G | 28 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 2-9 | 1-4 |
| Landon Moore G | 17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Brandon Lieb F | 10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jack Daugherty F | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Nick Allen, Mason Klabo, Isaac Ericksen, Ty Blake, Cameron Barnes
| VAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Dease F | 35 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 8-14 | 3-3 |
| JT Pettigrew F | 29 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 5-9 | 2-4 |
| Brody Whitaker G | 28 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Shon Tupuola F | 26 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Rakim Chaney G | 23 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3-5 | 2-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Carter Hopoi F | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Mark Brown Jr. G | 17 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Justus McNair G | 12 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Tucker Tornatta F | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Isaiah Barnes G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Kyonte Thomas G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Kobe Walker, Camden Webster, Sader Servilus, Nick Lombardi, Jayden Watson, Joe Vick
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenILST -6.5
no move
CloseILST -6.5
No change since the open
Total
Open137.5
▲ 1
Close138.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
ILST -310 · VAL +250
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ILST -6.5 · unchangedmodel ILST -7.5
model ILST -7.5
Opened 137.5 · closed 138.5 · moved 1 upmodel 140
model 140
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | ILST -6.5 | ILST -7.3 | ILST +0.8 | L VAL covered |
| Total | 138.5 | 140.0 | Over 1.5 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | ILST 73.7 · VAL 66.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | ILST -4.5 | VAL -12.0 |
| 1H total | 65.6 | 58 |
| 1H projected score | ILST 35 · VAL 30.6 | ILST 23 · VAL 35 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILST | 9-1 90% | 9-1 90% | 4-6 40% |
| VAL | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
ILST 2–5 VALVAL leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · ILST 2-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | VAL 78 @ ILST 86 | ILST -7.5 | ILST W |
| Mar 3, 2023-24 | ILST 72 @ VAL 75 | VAL +5.5 | VAL W |
| Jan 14, 2023-24 | VAL 59 @ ILST 50 | ILST -9.5 | VAL W |
| Feb 11, 2022-23 | ILST 76 @ VAL 81 | VAL -3.5 | VAL W |
| Jan 21, 2022-23 | VAL 71 @ ILST 51 | ILST -6.5 | VAL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Illinois St
14 games played
Straight up
11-3
79% wins
Against the spread
10-4
71% covers · avg +7.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-9
36% overs · avg −4.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | @ OHIO | L 68-72 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 161.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 9 | vs COR | W 76-65 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 164.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 14 | vs USC | L 67-87 | +15.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 16 | @ LBSU | W 82-80 | -8.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 23 | vs CCU | W 94-42 | -12.5 | W +39.5 | 146.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 27 | vs CLT | W 79-69 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 139.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs FUR | W 72-65 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 3 | vs EKU | W 89-78 | -12.5 | L −1.5 | 154.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 6 | vs CHST | W 95-53 | -20.5 | W +21.5 | 144.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 13 | vs USU | L 78-83 | +8.5 | W +3.5 | 148.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 18 | @ SIU | W 75-68 | +1.5 | W +8.5 | 153.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 21 | vs INST | W 85-65 | -13.5 | W +6.5 | 152.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 29 | @ DRKE | W 73-56 | -4.5 | W +12.5 | 145.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 1 | vs EVAN | W 73-47 | -12.5 | W +13.5 | 144.5 | U 120 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
6
@OHIO
OHIOL 68-72
−2.5
9
vsCOR
CORW 76-65
+4.5
14
vsUSC
USCL 67-87
−4.5
16
@LBSU
LBSUW 82-80
−6.5
23
vsCCU
CCUW 94-42
+39.5
27
vsCLT
CLTW 79-69
+4.5
28
vsFUR
FURW 72-65
+3.5
3
vsEKU
EKUW 89-78
−1.5
6
vsCHST
CHSTW 95-53
+21.5
13
vsUSU
USUL 78-83
+3.5
18
@SIU
SIUW 75-68
+8.5
21
vsINST
INSTW 85-65
+6.5
29
@DRKE
DRKEW 73-56
+12.5
1
vsEVAN
EVANW 73-47
+13.5
covered 10didn’t cover 4avg +7.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
6
@OHIO
OHIOL 68-72
−21.5
9
vsCOR
CORW 76-65
−23.5
14
vsUSC
USCL 67-87
−1.5
16
@LBSU
LBSUW 82-80
+20.5
23
vsCCU
CCUW 94-42
−10.5
27
vsCLT
CLTW 79-69
+8.5
28
vsFUR
FURW 72-65
−8.5
3
vsEKU
EKUW 89-78
+12.5
6
vsCHST
CHSTW 95-53
+3.5
13
vsUSU
USUL 78-83
+12.5
18
@SIU
SIUW 75-68
−10.5
21
vsINST
INSTW 85-65
−2.5
29
@DRKE
DRKEW 73-56
−16.5
1
vsEVAN
EVANW 73-47
−24.5
over 5under 9avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Valparaiso
14 games played
Straight up
6-8
43% wins
Against the spread
8-6
57% covers · avg +2.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-8
43% overs · avg −6.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs EIU | W 66-63 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 7 | @ UK | L 59-107 | +32.5 | L −15.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 12 | vs NICH | W 68-63 | -2.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 16 | vs BRY | W 68-50 | -6.5 | W +11.5 | 143.5 | U 118 |
| Nov 19 | @ CLE | W 90-75 | +2.5 | W +17.5 | 158.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 26 | vs USI | L 56-64 | -9.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 29 | vs WMU | W 84-55 | -4.5 | W +24.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 2 | @ MARQ | L 72-75 | +17.5 | W +14.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 13 | vs UNCW | L 70-73 | +4.5 | W +1.5 | 136.5 | O 143 |
| Dec 16 | @ NU | L 70-86 | +14.5 | L −1.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 21 | vs MUR | L 79-85 | +5.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 29 | @ UNI | L 48-58 | +8.5 | L −1.5 | 131.5 | U 106 |
| Jan 1 | @SIU | L 70-75 | +7.5 | W +2.5 | 145.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 4 | vs UIC | W 66-59 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 144.5 | U 125 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsEIU
EIUW 66-63
−2.5
7
@UK
UKL 59-107
−15.5
12
vsNICH
NICHW 68-63
+2.5
16
vsBRY
BRYW 68-50
+11.5
19
@CLE
CLEW 90-75
+17.5
26
vsUSI
USIL 56-64
−17.5
29
vsWMU
WMUW 84-55
+24.5
2
@MARQ
MARQL 72-75
+14.5
13
vsUNCW
UNCWL 70-73
+1.5
16
@NU
NUL 70-86
−1.5
21
vsMUR
MURL 79-85
−0.5
29
@UNI
UNIL 48-58
−1.5
1
@SIU
SIUL 70-75
+2.5
4
vsUIC
UICW 66-59
+4.5
covered 8didn’t cover 6avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsEIU
EIUW 66-63
−15.5
7
@UK
UKL 59-107
+8.5
12
vsNICH
NICHW 68-63
−13.5
16
vsBRY
BRYW 68-50
−25.5
19
@CLE
CLEW 90-75
+6.5
26
vsUSI
USIL 56-64
−30.5
29
vsWMU
WMUW 84-55
−7.5
2
@MARQ
MARQL 72-75
+0.5
13
vsUNCW
UNCWL 70-73
+6.5
16
@NU
NUL 70-86
+10.5
21
vsMUR
MURL 79-85
+8.5
29
@UNI
UNIL 48-58
−25.5
1
@SIU
SIUL 70-75
−0.5
4
vsUIC
UICW 66-59
−19.5
over 6under 8avg −6.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Illinois St
11-3 overall · 4-0 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Evansville73–47
- W@ Drake73–56
- Wvs Indiana St85–65
- W@ S Illinois75–68
- Lvs Utah State78–83
6 days since their last game.
Valparaiso
6-8 overall · 1-3 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UIC66–59
- L@ S Illinois70–75
- L@ Northern Iowa48–58
- Lvs Murray St79–85
- L@ Northwestern70–86
3 days since their last game.