Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers at Coppin State Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 10, 7:00 PM ETPhysical Education Complex · at Coppin St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Mount St Marys and Coppin St
MSM	This season	COPP
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MSM 72–68 · win probability MSM 64%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 139.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MSM has more of the edges

MSM 4, COPP 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

MSMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MSM 50.6 and allows 47.2; COPP 45.9 and allows 55.4

MSMBig

Three-pointers

MSM hits 32.7% and allows 32.3%; COPP hits 30.7% and allows 38.3%. Threes are 42.6% and 35.2% of their shots

MSMBig

COPP offense vs MSM defense

Offense 351st of 366 against a defense 199th, on the model’s ratings

MSMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MSM 32.3%, COPP 30.4%. Defensive: MSM 70.9%, COPP 65.3%

COPPSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MSM 22.4%, COPP 22.3%. Forced: MSM 15.3%, COPP 17.6%

COPPSmall

Home court

COPP at home. This season: COPP 0-0 at home, MSM 0-0 away

COPPSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MSM 42%, COPP 68%. Transfers in: MSM 3, COPP 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: MSM plays 68.0 a game (231st fastest), COPP 69.3 (159th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MSM 33.3, COPP 38.5. Allowed: MSM 37.3, COPP 42.9

Context

Schedule so far

MSM has played the 291st-hardest schedule, COPP the 313th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

MSM offense vs COPP defense

Offense 319th of 366 against a defense 324th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	MSM -4.1	—
Total	—	139.8	—
Projected score	—	MSM 72 · COPP 67.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MSM -2.6	—
1H total	65.5	—
1H projected score	MSM 34 · COPP 31.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSM WWLWL	18-13	58%	11-7	—
COPP WWLLW	13-17	43%	2-6	—

Venue/role: MSM away; COPP home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSM OUUUU	10-21	32%	14-17
COPP UOOOU	19-11	63%	6-24

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSM	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
COPP	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Mount St Marys

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 15	@ CREI	No recent meeting

Coppin St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	@ WVU	L49–91LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MSM 1–1 COPPSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · MSM 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 11, 2023-24	COPP 60 @ MSM 74	MSM -15.5	COPP W
Nov 11, 2022-23	MSM 78 @ COPP 83	COPP -0.5	COPP W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Mount St Marys

31 games played

Straight up

14-17

45% wins

Against the spread

18-13

58% covers · avg −0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-21

32% overs · avg −3.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1745%

L L W L L L L W L L W L W L L W L W W L W L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1358%

W L W W W L L W L W W L W L L W L W W L W L W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

10-2132%

U U U U O U O O O U O O U U U U U O U U U U U O O U O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@WVU	L 54-70	+19.5	W +3.5	136.5	U 124
Nov 7	vsBUCK	L 62-73	-1.5	L −12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@SFPA	W 74-66	-6.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 140
Nov 16	@CIN	L 55-72	+25.5	W +8.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 19	@MD	L 90-95	+17.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 185
Nov 23	@WMU	L 60-83	+1.5	L −21.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 25	@OSU	L 60-113	+30.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 29	vsHOW	W 79-75	-2.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 154
Dec 3	vsSHU	L 80-87	+1.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 167
Dec 5	@MRST	L 56-64	+8.5	W +0.5	136.5	U 120
Dec 13	@L-MD	W 81-73	-2.5	W +5.5	151.5	O 154
Dec 19	@DREX	L 67-75	+4.5	L −3.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 29	vsIONA	W 66-59	+2.5	W +9.5	153.5	U 125
Jan 2	@MRMK	L 65-75	+3.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 140
Jan 4	@QUIN	L 69-80	+7.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 149
Jan 9	vsSPU	W 70-65	+1.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 135
Jan 11	vsSIE	L 50-67	+2.5	L −14.5	139.5	U 117
Jan 17	@CAN	W 78-68	-3.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 146
Jan 19	@NIA	W 68-58	-3.5	W +6.5	131.5	U 126
Jan 22	vsQUIN	L 62-77	+4.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 24	vsRID	W 71-61	-9.5	W +0.5	139.5	U 132
Jan 30	@SPU	L 58-66	+5.5	L −2.5	138.5	U 124
Feb 1	vsMAN	W 72-65	-6.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 5	vsMRMK	L 70-87	+2.5	L −14.5	134.5	O 157
Feb 7	@IONA	W 83-76	+3.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 159
Feb 13	@RID	W 65-55	-5.5	W +4.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 20	vsNIA	W 76-63	-7.5	W +5.5	130.5	O 139
Feb 22	vsCAN	W 68-47	-7.5	W +13.5	137.5	U 115
Feb 27	@SHU	L 69-77	+2.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 146
Mar 1	@FAIR	W 69-47	+4.5	W +26.5	145.5	U 116
Mar 7	vsSIE	L 58-63	+2.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WVU

L 54-70

+3.5

BUCK

L 62-73

−12.5

SFPA

W 74-66

+1.5

CIN

L 55-72

+8.5

L 90-95

+12.5

WMU

L 60-83

−21.5

OSU

L 60-113

−22.5

HOW

W 79-75

+1.5

SHU

L 80-87

−5.5

MRST

L 56-64

+0.5

L-MD

W 81-73

+5.5

DREX

L 67-75

−3.5

IONA

W 66-59

+9.5

MRMK

L 65-75

−6.5

QUIN

L 69-80

−3.5

SPU

W 70-65

+6.5

SIE

L 50-67

−14.5

CAN

W 78-68

+6.5

NIA

W 68-58

+6.5

QUIN

L 62-77

−10.5

RID

W 71-61

+0.5

SPU

L 58-66

−2.5

MAN

W 72-65

+0.5

MRMK

L 70-87

−14.5

IONA

W 83-76

+10.5

RID

W 65-55

+4.5

NIA

W 76-63

+5.5

CAN

W 68-47

+13.5

SHU

L 69-77

−5.5

FAIR

W 69-47

+26.5

SIE

L 58-63

−2.5

covered 18didn’t cover 13avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WVU

L 54-70

−12.5

BUCK

L 62-73

−8.5

SFPA

W 74-66

−9.5

CIN

L 55-72

−18.5

L 90-95

+39.5

WMU

L 60-83

−7.5

OSU

L 60-113

+21.5

HOW

W 79-75

+7.5

SHU

L 80-87

+14.5

MRST

L 56-64

−16.5

L-MD

W 81-73

+2.5

DREX

L 67-75

+4.5

IONA

W 66-59

−28.5

MRMK

L 65-75

−1.5

QUIN

L 69-80

−1.5

SPU

W 70-65

−6.5

SIE

L 50-67

−22.5

CAN

W 78-68

+10.5

NIA

W 68-58

−5.5

QUIN

L 62-77

−9.5

RID

W 71-61

−7.5

SPU

L 58-66

−14.5

MAN

W 72-65

−10.5

MRMK

L 70-87

+22.5

IONA

W 83-76

+17.5

RID

W 65-55

−17.5

NIA

W 76-63

+8.5

CAN

W 68-47

−22.5

SHU

L 69-77

−4.5

FAIR

W 69-47

−29.5

SIE

L 58-63

−14.5

over 10under 21avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Coppin St

30 games played

Straight up

6-24

20% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-11

63% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-2420%

L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L W W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1743%

W L W L L W L W L L L W L L W L W L L W L L L W W W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1163%

O O O U U O O U O O U O O U O O U O O O O O U U U U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMD	L 61-83	+28.5	W +6.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 5	@LAS	L 59-87	+17.5	L −10.5	139.5	O 146
Nov 9	@JMU	L 70-84	+18.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 154
Nov 12	@USF	L 50-100	+34.5	L −15.5	167.5	U 150
Nov 14	vsCMU	L 59-82	+10.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 141
Nov 15	vsUSA	L 62-72	+18.5	W +8.5	133.5	O 134
Nov 22	@VCU	L 58-101	+32.5	L −10.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 25	@RID	W 68-65	+8.5	W +11.5	139.5	U 133
Nov 30	@L-MD	L 84-95	+9.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 179
Dec 3	@WVU	L 49-91	+31.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 140
Dec 6	@LIB	L 50-92	+30.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 9	@JOES	L 65-87	+22.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 152
Dec 14	@RAD	L 77-107	+20.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 184
Dec 19	@NAVY	L 55-88	+20.5	L −12.5	145.5	U 143
Dec 22	@GTWN	L 67-97	+33.5	W +3.5	150.5	O 164
Dec 29	vsUMBC	L 59-93	+10.5	L −23.5	148.5	O 152
Jan 3	@DSU	W 53-51	+8.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 104
Jan 10	vsNCCU	L 77-88	+6.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 165
Jan 12	vsSCST	L 72-74	-1.5	L −3.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	@UMES	L 67-70	+10.5	W +7.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 24	@NORF	L 76-103	+13.5	L −13.5	143.5	O 179
Jan 31	vsMORG	L 80-89	+3.5	L −5.5	155.5	O 169
Feb 2	vsHOW	L 53-72	+14.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 125
Feb 7	vsDSU	W 65-47	+1.5	W +19.5	132.5	U 112
Feb 14	@NCCU	W 58-56	+10.5	W +12.5	143.5	U 114
Feb 16	@SCST	W 59-57	+4.5	W +6.5	138.5	U 116
Feb 21	vsUMES	W 71-65	+3.5	W +9.5	128.5	O 136
Feb 28	vsNORF	L 69-75	+5.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 2	@HOW	L 70-90	+19.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 160
Mar 5	@MORG	L 66-70	+5.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 61-83

+6.5

LAS

L 59-87

−10.5

JMU

L 70-84

+4.5

USF

L 50-100

−15.5

CMU

L 59-82

−12.5

USA

L 62-72

+8.5

VCU

L 58-101

−10.5

RID

W 68-65

+11.5

L-MD

L 84-95

−1.5

WVU

L 49-91

−10.5

LIB

L 50-92

−11.5

JOES

L 65-87

+0.5

RAD

L 77-107

−9.5

NAVY

L 55-88

−12.5

GTWN

L 67-97

+3.5

UMBC

L 59-93

−23.5

DSU

W 53-51

+10.5

NCCU

L 77-88

−4.5

SCST

L 72-74

−3.5

UMES

L 67-70

+7.5

NORF

L 76-103

−13.5

MORG

L 80-89

−5.5

HOW

L 53-72

−4.5

DSU

W 65-47

+19.5

NCCU

W 58-56

+12.5

SCST

W 59-57

+6.5

UMES

W 71-65

+9.5

NORF

L 69-75

−0.5

HOW

L 70-90

−0.5

MORG

L 66-70

+1.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 61-83

+4.5

LAS

L 59-87

+6.5

JMU

L 70-84

+12.5

USF

L 50-100

−17.5

CMU

L 59-82

−1.5

USA

L 62-72

+0.5

VCU

L 58-101

+7.5

RID

W 68-65

−6.5

L-MD

L 84-95

+35.5

WVU

L 49-91

+5.5

LIB

L 50-92

−1.5

JOES

L 65-87

+5.5

RAD

L 77-107

+29.5

NAVY

L 55-88

−2.5

GTWN

L 67-97

+13.5

UMBC

L 59-93

+3.5

DSU

W 53-51

−35.5

NCCU

L 77-88

+21.5

SCST

L 72-74

+5.5

UMES

L 67-70

+3.5

NORF

L 76-103

+35.5

MORG

L 80-89

+13.5

HOW

L 53-72

−21.5

DSU

W 65-47

−20.5

NCCU

W 58-56

−29.5

SCST

W 59-57

−22.5

UMES

W 71-65

+7.5

NORF

L 69-75

+3.5

HOW

L 70-90

+19.5

MORG

L 66-70

−13.5

over 19under 11avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mount St Marys has the better starters

Position by position: Mount St Marys 2, Coppin St 1, even 2

Mount St MarysBetterCoppin St

G A. Khadre Kebe7.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 55

MSMSmall

G H. Williams7.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 27

G R. Thompson TR10.4 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 49

Even

G C. Sparrow5.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 40

G A. Arrington5.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 1 ast Score 2

COPPSmall

G J. Piercy6.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 23

G M. So3.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 13

Even

F N. Lamizana6.6 pts · 3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 18

F W. Jr. Exacte TR7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 43

MSMSmall

F T. Koenig5.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.4 ast Score 28

Mount St MarysBetterCoppin St

MSM offense319th of 366 · -10.5

Even

COPP defense324th of 366 · -8.4

MSM defense199th of 366 · -4.8

MSMBig

COPP offense351st of 366 · -12.8

Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players

COPPSmall

Backcourt-3.8 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player

MSMSmall

Frontcourt-2.6 · 2 players

Bench-2.4 · 4 players

MSMBig

Bench-6.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMSM betterCOPP betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Mount St Marys

Guards

A. Khadre Kebe22 minR. Thompson22 min · TRA. Arrington19 minM. So18 minA. Rozakeas14 minC. Orness3 min · TR

Forwards

W. Jr. Exacte19 min · TRY. Diop9 minL. JoyceNewR. BrzezanskiNewN. LimolNewC. GardNew

Coppin St

Guards

H. Williams20 minC. Sparrow19 minJ. Piercy18 minB. Saunders16 minD. Lydner12 minJ. Brown5 min

Forwards

N. Lamizana19 minT. Koenig17 minT. Gapare16 min · TRE. TaylorNewL. LawalNewA. MyersNew

Centers

F. Aire9 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MSM67.9 #315

COPP64.3 #352

Points per possession

MSM1.00 #327

COPP0.93 #362

Pace (possessions)

MSM68.0 #231

COPP69.3 #159

Shooting

Effective FG%

MSM50.6 #208

COPP45.9 #350

3-point %

MSM32.7 #244

COPP30.7 #326

3-point attempt rate

MSM42.6 #125

COPP35.2 #273

Free throw rate

MSM33.3 #230

COPP38.5 #90

Possessions

Turnover rate

MSM22.4 #364

COPP22.3 #363

Offensive rebound rate

MSM32.3 #115

COPP30.4 #183

Assists per game

MSM13.2 #196

COPP11.4 #317

Defense

Points allowed

MSM71.0 #74

COPP81.0 #334

Points allowed per possession

MSM1.05 #84

COPP1.17 #342

Opponent effective FG%

MSM47.2 #23

COPP55.4 #339

Opponent 3-point %

MSM32.3 #81

COPP38.3 #360

Turnovers forced

MSM15.3 #262

COPP17.6 #118

Defensive rebound rate

MSM70.9 #114

COPP65.3 #333

Steals per game

MSM5.8 #261

COPP6.0 #233

Blocks per game

MSM2.9 #248

COPP3.5 #143

MSM		COPP
Scoring
67.9 #315	Points per game	64.3 #352
1.00 #327	Points per possession	0.93 #362
68.0 #231	Pace (possessions)	69.3 #159
Shooting
50.6 #208	Effective FG%	45.9 #350
32.7 #244	3-point %	30.7 #326
42.6 #125	3-point attempt rate	35.2 #273
33.3 #230	Free throw rate	38.5 #90
Possessions
22.4 #364	Turnover rate	22.3 #363
32.3 #115	Offensive rebound rate	30.4 #183
13.2 #196	Assists per game	11.4 #317
Defense
71.0 #74	Points allowed	81.0 #334
1.05 #84	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #342
47.2 #23	Opponent effective FG%	55.4 #339
32.3 #81	Opponent 3-point %	38.3 #360
15.3 #262	Turnovers forced	17.6 #118
70.9 #114	Defensive rebound rate	65.3 #333
5.8 #261	Steals per game	6.0 #233
2.9 #248	Blocks per game	3.5 #143

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mount St Marys

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Siena58–63
W@ Fairfield69–47
L@ Sacred Heart69–77
Wvs Canisius68–47
Wvs Niagara76–63

A week or more of rest.

Coppin St

6-24 in 2025-26 overall · 5-9 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Morgan St66–70
L@ Howard70–90
Lvs Norfolk St69–75
Wvs MD Eastern71–65
W@ SC State59–57

A week or more of rest.

Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers at Coppin State Eagles

What could decide it: MSM has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Mount St Marys

Coppin St

Mount St Marys has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Mount St Marys

Coppin St