1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 15
  3. MSM @ CREI
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 15

Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers at Creighton Bluejays

CHI Health Center Omaha · at Creighton
#278MSMMount St Marys
@
#37CREICreighton
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MSMThis seasonCREI
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CREI 87–61 · win probability CREI 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 147.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CREI has more of the edges

MSM 2, CREI 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CREIBig
MSM offense vs CREI defense
Offense 319th of 366 against a defense 43rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MSM has played the 291st-hardest schedule, CREI the 40th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CREIBig
CREI offense vs MSM defense
Offense 33rd of 366 against a defense 199th, on the model’s ratings
MSMSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MSM 32.3%, CREI 26.9%. Defensive: MSM 70.9%, CREI 70.5%
CREISmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MSM 33.3, CREI 28.3. Allowed: MSM 37.3, CREI 24.8
CREISmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MSM 22.4%, CREI 16.4%. Forced: MSM 15.3%, CREI 13.7%
CREISmall
Home court
CREI at home. This season: CREI 0-0 at home, MSM 0-0 away
MSMSmall
Three-pointers
MSM hits 32.7% and allows 32.3%; CREI hits 34.1% and allows 35.1%. Threes are 42.6% and 48.2% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: MSM plays 68.0 a game (231st fastest), CREI 68.9 (187th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MSM 42%, CREI 53%. Transfers in: MSM 3, CREI 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MSM 50.6 and allows 47.2; CREI 53.0 and allows 51.1
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CREI -26.2—
Total—147.5—
Projected score—MSM 60.6 · CREI 86.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCREI -15.5—
1H total69.0—
1H projected scoreMSM 26.8 · CREI 42.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Creighton has the better starters

Position by position: Mount St Marys 0, Creighton 5, even 0
Mount St MarysBetterCreighton
G A. Khadre Kebe7.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 55
CREISmall
G B. Robinson TR17.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 6.7 ast Score 86
G R. Thompson TR10.4 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 49
CREISmall
G W. Enis TR16.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 72
G A. Arrington5.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 1 ast Score 2
CREIBig
F J. Green10.5 pts · 6.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 92
G M. So3.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.1 ast Score 13
CREIBig
F O. Erhunmwunse TR6.9 pts · 8.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 74
F W. Jr. Exacte TR7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 43
CREIBig
C F. King TR13.1 pts · 8.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 92
Mount St MarysBetterCreighton
MSM offense319th of 366 · -10.5
CREIBig
CREI defense43rd of 366 · +2.7
MSM defense199th of 366 · -4.8
CREIBig
CREI offense33rd of 366 · +5.5
Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players
CREIBig
Backcourt+3.2 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player
CREIBig
Frontcourt+8.6 · 3 players
Bench-2.4 · 4 players
CREIBig
Bench+5.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMSM betterCREI betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Mount St Marys
Guards
A. Khadre Kebe22 minR. Thompson22 min · TRA. Arrington19 minM. So18 minA. Rozakeas14 minC. Orness3 min · TR
Forwards
W. Jr. Exacte19 min · TRY. Diop9 minL. JoyceNewR. BrzezanskiNewN. LimolNewC. GardNew
Creighton
Guards
B. Robinson36 min · TRW. Enis34 min · TRB. Davis23 min · TRA. Swartz22 minH. Greer14 minK. Edwards7 min · TR
Forwards
J. Green28 minO. Erhunmwunse25 min · TRJ. McAndrew21 minI. Traudt19 minT. Carter-GivensNew
Centers
F. King25 min · TRW. RosaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MSMCREI
Scoring
67.9 #315Points per game75.2 #159
1.00 #327Points per possession1.09 #156
68.0 #231Pace (possessions)68.9 #187
Shooting
50.6 #208Effective FG%53.0 #103
32.7 #2443-point %34.1 #167
42.6 #1253-point attempt rate48.2 #23
33.3 #230Free throw rate28.3 #340
Possessions
22.4 #364Turnover rate16.4 #161
32.3 #115Offensive rebound rate26.9 #301
13.2 #196Assists per game15.4 #72
Defense
71.0 #74Points allowed75.2 #196
1.05 #84Points allowed per possession1.09 #197
47.2 #23Opponent effective FG%51.1 #165
32.3 #81Opponent 3-point %35.1 #256
15.3 #262Turnovers forced13.7 #341
70.9 #114Defensive rebound rate70.5 #132
5.8 #261Steals per game5.7 #278
2.9 #248Blocks per game2.8 #255
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mount St Marys

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Siena58–63
  • W@ Fairfield69–47
  • L@ Sacred Heart69–77
  • Wvs Canisius68–47
  • Wvs Niagara76–63

A week or more of rest.

Creighton

16-18 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs West Virginia70–87
  • Wvs Rutgers82–69
  • Lvs Seton Hall61–72
  • W@ Butler76–59
  • Lvs Providence76–79

A week or more of rest.