Manhattan Jaspers at Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Feb 1, 2:00 PM ETKnott Arena · at Mount St Marys · Conference game

#330MANManhattan65final

Final

Closing lineMSM -6.5✓ MSM covered by 0.5

Closing total147.5Under by 10.5

Season records: Manhattan and Mount St Marys
MAN	This season	MSM
8-14	Record	8-14
8-14	ATS	12-10
10-12	O/U	7-15

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MAN 74–79 MSM · ✓ MSM (67%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MAN	27	38	65
MSM	32	40	72

1st half: MAN 27, MSM 32 (MSM by 5). The model had MSM by 2.9 and a total of 71.3 (actual 59).

Team stats

MAN		MSM
23-60 38%	Field goals	25-61 41%
8-32 25%	3-pointers	9-24 38%
11-13 85%	Free throws	13-14 93%
32 10 off	Rebounds	42 14 off
11	Assists	17
10	Steals	6
1	Blocks	2
8	Turnovers	13
15	Fouls	12
20	Points in paint	30
6	Fast-break points	2

Players

MAN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Devin Dinkins G	33	8	1	2	2-8	0-5
Jaden Winston G	32	13	3	4	4-11	3-8
Terrance Jones G	30	5	6	1	2-4	1-3
Fraser Roxburgh F	29	9	4	2	4-12	1-5
Marko Ljubicic F	28	14	4	0	5-12	3-9
Bench
Quron Elliott G	18	6	2	2	3-7	0-1
Anthony Isaac Jr. F	17	10	9	0	3-5	0-0
Jackson Delaney G	9	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Erik Oliver-Bush G	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Louis Fairtlough, Asier Miguel, Nick Lukmann, Omari Moore, Jameson Borodawka, Brett Rumpel, Jaeden Robley, Aryan Arora, Michael Lawlor, Will Sydnor

MSM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Arlandus Keyes G	34	13	5	4	4-9	3-8
Xavier Lipscomb G	31	7	6	9	1-4	1-3
Trey Deveaux F	31	9	6	1	3-11	1-4
Luke McEldon F	23	14	2	0	7-11	0-0
Abdou Khadre Kebe G	21	10	7	0	3-7	2-4
Bench
Anthony Arrington Jr. G	19	9	5	2	4-10	1-4
Justin Amadi F	17	2	2	0	0-4	0-0
Yakhya Diop F	9	3	6	0	1-2	0-0
Mason So G	9	5	0	1	2-3	1-1
Anastasios Rozakeas G	6	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Noah Rogers, Justin May, John Miller IV, Patrick Haigh, Elijah Espinosa, Jaxon Hartman

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MSM -6.5	MSM -5.0	MAN +1.5	L MSM covered
Total	147.5	152.3	Over 4.8	L Under
Projected score	—	MAN 73.6 · MSM 78.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MSM -2.9	MSM -5.0
1H total	71.3	59
1H projected score	MAN 34.2 · MSM 37.1	MAN 27 · MSM 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MAN LLWLL	8-14	36%	2-9	6-9
MSM WWLWL	12-10	55%	4-4	6-1

Venue/role: MAN away, as underdog; MSM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MAN OUOUO	10-12	45%	8-14
MSM OUUUU	7-15	32%	8-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MAN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
MSM	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

MAN 3–3 MSMSeries tied · 6 games since 2021-22 · MAN 4-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 25, 2024-25	MAN 74 @ MSM 64	MSM -3.5	MAN W
Jan 10, 2024-25	MSM 75 @ MAN 66	MAN -1.5	MSM W
Feb 8, 2023-24	MAN 78 @ MSM 82	MSM -8.5	MAN W
Dec 1, 2023-24	MSM 74 @ MAN 75	MAN +3.5	MAN W
Mar 4, 2022-23	MSM 74 @ MAN 69	MAN -2.5	MSM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Manhattan

22 games played

Straight up

8-14

36% wins

Against the spread

8-14

36% covers · avg −4.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-12

45% overs · avg +5.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-1436%

L W L W L L L W L L L W W W L L W L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

8-1436%

L W L L L L L W L L W W W W L L W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

10-1245%

O U U U O O O U O U U O U U U U O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@USC	L 83-114	+28.5	L −2.5	155.5	O 197
Nov 12	vsUTU	W 79-75	+2.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 154
Nov 14	@HAW	L 56-86	+15.5	L −14.5	156.5	U 142
Nov 15	vsMVSU	W 80-73	-20.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 153
Nov 21	@TA&M	L 68-109	+23.5	L −17.5	162.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsWAG	L 101-103	-2.5	L −4.5	144.5	O 204
Nov 29	@ARMY	L 78-81	-1.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 159
Dec 5	vsFAIR	W 70-66	+1.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 136
Dec 7	@MRST	L 68-80	+7.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 148
Dec 13	@FOR	L 53-82	+8.5	L −20.5	147.5	U 135
Dec 18	vsFUR	L 68-75	+10.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 143
Dec 21	vsPRES	W 87-81	+2.5	W +8.5	138.5	O 168
Dec 29	@RID	W 74-71	-2.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 2	vsQUIN	W 80-79	+7.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 159
Jan 4	@MRMK	L 66-73	+6.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 9	vsCAN	L 64-70	-7.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 134
Jan 11	vsNIA	W 79-70	-5.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 149
Jan 14	@FAIR	L 62-98	+6.5	L −29.5	158.5	O 160
Jan 17	vsSIE	L 59-74	+6.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 133
Jan 19	@QUIN	L 92-98	+13.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 190
Jan 24	@IONA	L 57-66	+7.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 123
Jan 30	vsRID	W 95-90	-5.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 185

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USC

L 83-114

−2.5

UTU

W 79-75

+6.5

HAW

L 56-86

−14.5

MVSU

W 80-73

−13.5

TA&M

L 68-109

−17.5

WAG

L 101-103

−4.5

ARMY

L 78-81

−4.5

FAIR

W 70-66

+5.5

MRST

L 68-80

−4.5

FOR

L 53-82

−20.5

FUR

L 68-75

+3.5

PRES

W 87-81

+8.5

RID

W 74-71

+0.5

QUIN

W 80-79

+8.5

MRMK

L 66-73

−0.5

CAN

L 64-70

−13.5

NIA

W 79-70

+3.5

FAIR

L 62-98

−29.5

SIE

L 59-74

−8.5

QUIN

L 92-98

+7.5

IONA

L 57-66

−1.5

RID

W 95-90

−0.5

covered 8didn’t cover 14avg −4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USC

L 83-114

+41.5

UTU

W 79-75

−4.5

HAW

L 56-86

−14.5

MVSU

W 80-73

−1.5

TA&M

L 68-109

+14.5

WAG

L 101-103

+59.5

ARMY

L 78-81

+6.5

FAIR

W 70-66

−19.5

MRST

L 68-80

+7.5

FOR

L 53-82

−12.5

FUR

L 68-75

−11.5

PRES

W 87-81

+29.5

RID

W 74-71

−2.5

QUIN

W 80-79

−0.5

MRMK

L 66-73

−9.5

CAN

L 64-70

−11.5

NIA

W 79-70

+8.5

FAIR

L 62-98

+1.5

SIE

L 59-74

−11.5

QUIN

L 92-98

+36.5

IONA

L 57-66

−30.5

RID

W 95-90

+39.5

over 10under 12avg +5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Mount St Marys

22 games played

Straight up

8-14

36% wins

Against the spread

12-10

55% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-15

32% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-1436%

L L W L L L L W L L W L W L L W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-1055%

W L W W W L L W L W W L W L L W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-1532%

U U U U O U O O O U O O U U U U U O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@WVU	L 54-70	+19.5	W +3.5	136.5	U 124
Nov 7	vsBUCK	L 62-73	-1.5	L −12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@SFPA	W 74-66	-6.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 140
Nov 16	@CIN	L 55-72	+25.5	W +8.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 19	@MD	L 90-95	+17.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 185
Nov 23	@WMU	L 60-83	+1.5	L −21.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 25	@OSU	L 60-113	+30.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 29	vsHOW	W 79-75	-2.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 154
Dec 3	vsSHU	L 80-87	+1.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 167
Dec 5	@MRST	L 56-64	+8.5	W +0.5	136.5	U 120
Dec 13	@L-MD	W 81-73	-2.5	W +5.5	151.5	O 154
Dec 19	@DREX	L 67-75	+4.5	L −3.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 29	vsIONA	W 66-59	+2.5	W +9.5	153.5	U 125
Jan 2	@MRMK	L 65-75	+3.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 140
Jan 4	@QUIN	L 69-80	+7.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 149
Jan 9	vsSPU	W 70-65	+1.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 135
Jan 11	vsSIE	L 50-67	+2.5	L −14.5	139.5	U 117
Jan 17	@CAN	W 78-68	-3.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 146
Jan 19	@NIA	W 68-58	-3.5	W +6.5	131.5	U 126
Jan 22	vsQUIN	L 62-77	+4.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 139
Jan 24	vsRID	W 71-61	-9.5	W +0.5	139.5	U 132
Jan 30	@SPU	L 58-66	+5.5	L −2.5	138.5	U 124

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WVU

L 54-70

+3.5

BUCK

L 62-73

−12.5

SFPA

W 74-66

+1.5

CIN

L 55-72

+8.5

L 90-95

+12.5

WMU

L 60-83

−21.5

OSU

L 60-113

−22.5

HOW

W 79-75

+1.5

SHU

L 80-87

−5.5

MRST

L 56-64

+0.5

L-MD

W 81-73

+5.5

DREX

L 67-75

−3.5

IONA

W 66-59

+9.5

MRMK

L 65-75

−6.5

QUIN

L 69-80

−3.5

SPU

W 70-65

+6.5

SIE

L 50-67

−14.5

CAN

W 78-68

+6.5

NIA

W 68-58

+6.5

QUIN

L 62-77

−10.5

RID

W 71-61

+0.5

SPU

L 58-66

−2.5

covered 12didn’t cover 10avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WVU

L 54-70

−12.5

BUCK

L 62-73

−8.5

SFPA

W 74-66

−9.5

CIN

L 55-72

−18.5

L 90-95

+39.5

WMU

L 60-83

−7.5

OSU

L 60-113

+21.5

HOW

W 79-75

+7.5

SHU

L 80-87

+14.5

MRST

L 56-64

−16.5

L-MD

W 81-73

+2.5

DREX

L 67-75

+4.5

IONA

W 66-59

−28.5

MRMK

L 65-75

−1.5

QUIN

L 69-80

−1.5

SPU

W 70-65

−6.5

SIE

L 50-67

−22.5

CAN

W 78-68

+10.5

NIA

W 68-58

−5.5

QUIN

L 62-77

−9.5

RID

W 71-61

−7.5

SPU

L 58-66

−14.5

over 7under 15avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Manhattan Jaspers at Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Manhattan

Mount St Marys

Manhattan

Mount St Marys