Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers at Marist Red Foxes: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 5, 7:00 PM ETMcCann Arena · at Marist · Conference game

Final

#236MRSTMarist64▲ winner

Closing lineMRST -8.5✓ MSM covered by 0.5

Closing total136.5Under by 16.5

Season records: Mount St Marys and Marist
MSM	This season	MRST
2-7	Record	3-2
5-4	ATS	3-2
4-5	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MSM 62–74 MRST · ✓ MRST (85%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MSM	20	36	56
MRST	30	34	64

1st half: MSM 20, MRST 30 (MRST by 10). The model had MRST by 7.0 and a total of 63.5 (actual 50).

Team stats

MSM		MRST
19-55 35%	Field goals	23-53 43%
6-22 27%	3-pointers	7-19 37%
12-21 57%	Free throws	11-13 85%
38 14 off	Rebounds	34 7 off
12	Assists	11
11	Steals	15
5	Blocks	2
21	Turnovers	19
17	Fouls	18
24	Points in paint	20
4	Fast-break points	10

Players

MSM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Xavier Lipscomb G	34	12	5	4	3-7	3-6
Arlandus Keyes G	32	13	4	2	4-11	2-8
Mason So G	32	6	2	6	2-3	0-1
Luke McEldon F	23	7	6	0	3-7	0-1
Anastasios Rozakeas G	15	0	3	0	0-4	0-0
Bench
Justin Amadi F	27	8	6	0	3-9	1-3
Trey Deveaux F	18	7	6	0	3-7	0-1
Abdou Khadre Kebe G	9	2	3	0	1-4	0-2
Yakhya Diop F	8	1	1	0	0-3	0-0
Patrick Haigh G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Noah Rogers, Justin May, John Miller IV, Elijah Espinosa, Jaxon Hartman, Anthony Arrington Jr.

MRST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Elijah Lewis G	30	6	1	1	2-3	0-0
Justin Menard G	29	11	1	1	4-15	2-7
Jadin Collins-Roberts G	25	11	3	3	3-6	0-0
Jaden Daughtry F	24	7	5	1	3-4	0-0
Parby Kabamba F	14	3	5	0	1-3	1-3
Bench
Rhyjon Blackwell G	33	16	4	3	6-12	2-4
Jason Schofield C	20	4	5	1	2-5	0-0
Myles Parker F	9	6	2	0	2-3	2-3
Tarik Watson C	7	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Martin Kawa G	6	0	1	1	0-2	0-2
Trace Salton F	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jordan Gabriel, Antoni Vlogianitis, Ricky McKenzie

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MRST -8.5	MRST -11.8	MRST +3.3	L MSM covered
Total	136.5	135.6	Under 0.9	W Under
Projected score	—	MSM 61.9 · MRST 73.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MRST -7.0	MRST -10.0
1H total	63.5	50
1H projected score	MSM 28.3 · MRST 35.3	MSM 20 · MRST 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSM WLLWL	5-4	56%	4-2	3-3
MRST WWLLW	3-2	60%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: MSM away, as underdog; MRST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSM OUOOO	4-5	44%	2-7
MRST UUUOO	2-3	40%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSMlast 9	2-7 22%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%
MRSTlast 5	3-2 60%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22

MSM 5–2 MRSTMSM leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · MSM has won the last 2 meetings · MSM 6-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 13, 2024-25	MSM 62 vs MRST 58	MRST -4.5	MSM W
Mar 8, 2024-25	MRST 52 @ MSM 62	MSM -2.5	MSM W
Dec 6, 2024-25	MSM 50 @ MRST 53	MRST -5.5	MSM W
Feb 2, 2023-24	MSM 76 @ MRST 58	MRST -2	MSM W
Jan 19, 2023-24	MRST 48 @ MSM 65	MSM -2.5	MSM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Mount St Marys

9 games played

Straight up

2-7

22% wins

Against the spread

5-4

56% covers · avg −3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-5

44% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-722%

L L W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-456%

W L W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-544%

U U U U O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@WVU	L 54-70	+19.5	W +3.5	136.5	U 124
Nov 7	vsBUCK	L 62-73	-1.5	L −12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@SFPA	W 74-66	-6.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 140
Nov 16	@CIN	L 55-72	+25.5	W +8.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 19	@MD	L 90-95	+17.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 185
Nov 23	@WMU	L 60-83	+1.5	L −21.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 25	@OSU	L 60-113	+30.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 29	vsHOW	W 79-75	-2.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 154
Dec 3	vsSHU	L 80-87	+1.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WVU

L 54-70

+3.5

BUCK

L 62-73

−12.5

SFPA

W 74-66

+1.5

CIN

L 55-72

+8.5

L 90-95

+12.5

WMU

L 60-83

−21.5

OSU

L 60-113

−22.5

HOW

W 79-75

+1.5

SHU

L 80-87

−5.5

covered 5didn’t cover 4avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WVU

L 54-70

−12.5

BUCK

L 62-73

−8.5

SFPA

W 74-66

−9.5

CIN

L 55-72

−18.5

L 90-95

+39.5

WMU

L 60-83

−7.5

OSU

L 60-113

+21.5

HOW

W 79-75

+7.5

SHU

L 80-87

+14.5

over 4under 5avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Marist

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +6.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −6.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@XAV	L 62-66	+12.5	W +8.5	139.5	U 128
Nov 9	@DART	W 75-56	+1.5	W +20.5	138.5	U 131
Nov 16	vsHARV	L 54-56	-6.5	L −8.5	130.5	U 110
Nov 21	vsARMY	W 76-65	-12.5	L −1.5	132.5	O 141
Nov 25	vsLEH	W 78-55	-7.5	W +15.5	132.5	O 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

XAV

L 62-66

+8.5

DART

W 75-56

+20.5

HARV

L 54-56

−8.5

ARMY

W 76-65

−1.5

LEH

W 78-55

+15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

XAV

L 62-66

−11.5

DART

W 75-56

−7.5

HARV

L 54-56

−20.5

ARMY

W 76-65

+8.5

LEH

W 78-55

+0.5

over 2under 3avg −6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers at Marist Red Foxes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Mount St Marys

Marist

Mount St Marys

Marist