North Dakota State Bison at Illinois State Redbirds: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 13, 5:00 PM ETCEFCU Arena · at Illinois St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: N Dakota St and Illinois St
NDSU	This season	ILST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ILST 77–68 · win probability ILST 80%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ILST has more of the edges

NDSU 2, ILST 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

NDSU has played the 315th-hardest schedule, ILST the 135th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NDSUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NDSU 15.6%, ILST 16.8%. Forced: NDSU 18.7%, ILST 16.0%

ILSTBig

NDSU offense vs ILST defense

Offense 212th of 366 against a defense 102nd, on the model’s ratings

NDSUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NDSU 32.9%, ILST 28.0%. Defensive: NDSU 74.5%, ILST 74.6%

ILSTSmall

ILST offense vs NDSU defense

Offense 133rd of 366 against a defense 209th, on the model’s ratings

ILSTSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NDSU 53.2 and allows 52.0; ILST 53.6 and allows 49.8

ILSTSmall

Home court

ILST at home. This season: ILST 0-0 at home, NDSU 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: NDSU plays 69.2 a game (169th fastest), ILST 67.7 (241st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NDSU 30.6, ILST 31.6. Allowed: NDSU 29.2, ILST 32.3

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NDSU 25%, ILST 37%. Transfers in: NDSU 4, ILST 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Three-pointers

NDSU hits 35.4% and allows 33.9%; ILST hits 34.9% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 42.8% and 43.3% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ILST -9.5	—
Total	—	144.9	—
Projected score	—	NDSU 67.7 · ILST 77.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ILST -5.5	—
1H total	67.8	—
1H projected score	NDSU 31.1 · ILST 36.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NDSU WLWLL	18-14	56%	9-6	—
ILST LWWWL	19-16	54%	10-5	—

Venue/role: NDSU away; ILST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NDSU OUUUO	15-17	47%	24-8
ILST UUOUO	15-20	43%	22-13

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NDSU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
ILST	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

N Dakota St

No more games listed yet.

Illinois St

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NDSU 0–2 ILSTILST leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · ILST has won the last 2 meetings · NDSU 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 7, 2024-25	ILST 77 @ NDSU 68	NDSU -3.5	ILST W
Dec 17, 2023-24	NDSU 65 @ ILST 75	ILST -3.5	ILST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Dakota St

32 games played

Straight up

24-8

75% wins

Against the spread

18-14

56% covers · avg +2.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-875%

L L W W W L W W W W L L W W W W W W W W W L W W W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1456%

W L W W W L W L W W L L W L W L W W W W L L L W W W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1747%

U O O O U O U U U O O O U O O O U U U U O U O U U O U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ORST	L 65-67	+9.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 132
Nov 5	@UCD	L 68-80	+1.5	L −10.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 11	vsCSUN	W 90-68	-4.5	W +17.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 17	vsSIU	W 92-85	-1.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsJXST	W 56-43	-3.5	W +9.5	142.5	U 99
Nov 28	@ARST	L 80-85	+3.5	L −1.5	160.5	O 165
Dec 3	@MONT	W 81-72	+3.5	W +12.5	153.5	U 153
Dec 6	vsNAU	W 69-68	-12.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 137
Dec 11	@CSUB	W 80-69	-7.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 149
Dec 13	@DRKE	W 99-94	+5.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 193
Dec 21	vsUCI	L 73-74	-1.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 22	@UTEP	L 66-76	-2.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 142
Dec 31	vsSDAK	W 84-61	-11.5	W +11.5	164.5	U 145
Jan 3	vsORU	W 79-77	-13.5	L −11.5	146.5	O 156
Jan 8	@KC	W 97-73	-9.5	W +14.5	144.5	O 170
Jan 10	@OMA	W 78-76	-5.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 154
Jan 14	vsSDST	W 76-65	-5.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 141
Jan 17	vsSTMN	W 68-65	-2.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 133
Jan 22	@DEN	W 82-77	-4.5	W +0.5	160.5	U 159
Jan 24	@ORU	W 86-58	-10.5	W +17.5	151.5	U 144
Jan 31	@SDAK	W 89-84	-8.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 173
Feb 5	vsDEN	L 71-78	-12.5	L −19.5	156.5	U 149
Feb 7	vsOMA	W 92-84	-9.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 176
Feb 14	@UND	W 83-66	-5.5	W +11.5	149.5	U 149
Feb 18	@SDST	W 74-66	-1.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 140
Feb 21	vsKC	W 95-59	-19.5	W +16.5	148.5	O 154
Feb 26	@STMN	L 62-84	+3.5	L −18.5	155.5	U 146
Feb 28	vsUND	W 96-63	-11.5	W +21.5	152.5	O 159
Mar 5	vsORU	W 76-65	-12.5	L −1.5	147.5	U 141
Mar 7	vsOMA	W 74-50	-8.5	W +15.5	146.5	U 124
Mar 8	vsUND	W 70-62	-11.5	L −3.5	147.5	U 132
Mar 19	vsMSU	L 67-92	+16.5	L −8.5	144.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORST

L 65-67

+7.5

UCD

L 68-80

−10.5

CSUN

W 90-68

+17.5

SIU

W 92-85

+5.5

JXST

W 56-43

+9.5

ARST

L 80-85

−1.5

MONT

W 81-72

+12.5

NAU

W 69-68

−11.5

CSUB

W 80-69

+3.5

DRKE

W 99-94

+10.5

UCI

L 73-74

−2.5

UTEP

L 66-76

−12.5

SDAK

W 84-61

+11.5

ORU

W 79-77

−11.5

W 97-73

+14.5

OMA

W 78-76

−3.5

SDST

W 76-65

+5.5

STMN

W 68-65

+0.5

DEN

W 82-77

+0.5

ORU

W 86-58

+17.5

SDAK

W 89-84

−3.5

DEN

L 71-78

−19.5

OMA

W 92-84

−1.5

UND

W 83-66

+11.5

SDST

W 74-66

+6.5

W 95-59

+16.5

STMN

L 62-84

−18.5

UND

W 96-63

+21.5

ORU

W 76-65

−1.5

OMA

W 74-50

+15.5

UND

W 70-62

−3.5

MSU

L 67-92

−8.5

covered 18didn’t cover 14avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORST

L 65-67

−12.5

UCD

L 68-80

+5.5

CSUN

W 90-68

+1.5

SIU

W 92-85

+23.5

JXST

W 56-43

−43.5

ARST

L 80-85

+4.5

MONT

W 81-72

−0.5

NAU

W 69-68

−10.5

CSUB

W 80-69

−0.5

DRKE

W 99-94

+47.5

UCI

L 73-74

+0.5

UTEP

L 66-76

+2.5

SDAK

W 84-61

−19.5

ORU

W 79-77

+9.5

W 97-73

+25.5

OMA

W 78-76

+6.5

SDST

W 76-65

−10.5

STMN

W 68-65

−18.5

DEN

W 82-77

−1.5

ORU

W 86-58

−7.5

SDAK

W 89-84

+18.5

DEN

L 71-78

−7.5

OMA

W 92-84

+29.5

UND

W 83-66

−0.5

SDST

W 74-66

−6.5

W 95-59

+5.5

STMN

L 62-84

−9.5

UND

W 96-63

+6.5

ORU

W 76-65

−6.5

OMA

W 74-50

−22.5

UND

W 70-62

−15.5

MSU

L 67-92

+14.5

over 15under 17avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Illinois St

35 games played

Straight up

22-13

63% wins

Against the spread

19-16

54% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-20

43% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

22-1363%

L W L W W W W W W L W W W W L L L W W L W L W L W L W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1654%

L W L L W W W L W W W W W W L L L W L L W L L L W L W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2043%

U U U O U O U O O O U U U U O U O O U U U U O O O U U U O O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@OHIO	L 68-72	+1.5	L −2.5	161.5	U 140
Nov 9	vsCOR	W 76-65	-6.5	W +4.5	164.5	U 141
Nov 14	vsUSC	L 67-87	+15.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 154
Nov 16	@LBSU	W 82-80	-8.5	L −6.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 23	vsCCU	W 94-42	-12.5	W +39.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 27	vsCLT	W 79-69	-5.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 148
Nov 28	vsFUR	W 72-65	-3.5	W +3.5	145.5	U 137
Dec 3	vsEKU	W 89-78	-12.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 167
Dec 6	vsCHST	W 95-53	-20.5	W +21.5	144.5	O 148
Dec 13	vsUSU	L 78-83	+8.5	W +3.5	148.5	O 161
Dec 18	@SIU	W 75-68	+1.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 143
Dec 21	vsINST	W 85-65	-13.5	W +6.5	152.5	U 150
Dec 29	@DRKE	W 73-56	-4.5	W +12.5	145.5	U 129
Jan 1	vsEVAN	W 73-47	-12.5	W +13.5	144.5	U 120
Jan 7	@VAL	L 71-77	-6.5	L −12.5	138.5	O 148
Jan 10	vsUIC	L 59-63	-10.5	L −14.5	141.5	U 122
Jan 14	@INST	L 89-94	-6.5	L −11.5	148.5	O 183
Jan 17	vsBRAD	W 88-62	-5.5	W +20.5	147.5	O 150
Jan 21	vsUNI	W 59-54	-6.5	L −1.5	132.5	U 113
Jan 24	@BEL	L 69-80	+5.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 149
Jan 28	@MUR	W 70-65	+3.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 135
Feb 3	vsSIU	L 50-54	-8.5	L −12.5	140.5	U 104
Feb 6	vsDRKE	W 86-76	-10.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 162
Feb 9	@EVAN	L 80-88	-10.5	L −18.5	137.5	O 168
Feb 12	vsVAL	W 86-64	-8.5	W +13.5	138.5	O 150
Feb 15	@UIC	L 56-83	-1.5	L −28.5	140.5	U 139
Feb 18	vsMUR	W 78-61	-2.5	W +14.5	158.5	U 139
Feb 21	@BRAD	L 60-74	+3.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 134
Feb 25	@UNI	W 71-69	+4.5	W +6.5	132.5	O 140
Mar 1	vsBEL	W 81-74	+1.5	W +8.5	150.5	O 155
Mar 6	vsUNI	L 52-74	+1.5	L −20.5	130.5	U 126
Mar 18	vsKENT	W 79-58	-4.5	W +16.5	154.5	U 137
Mar 22	@WAKE	W 78-75	+8.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 153
Mar 25	@DAY	W 61-55	+7.5	W +13.5	140.5	U 116
Apr 2	vsAUB	L 66-88	+7.5	L −14.5	149.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OHIO

L 68-72

−2.5

COR

W 76-65

+4.5

USC

L 67-87

−4.5

LBSU

W 82-80

−6.5

CCU

W 94-42

+39.5

CLT

W 79-69

+4.5

FUR

W 72-65

+3.5

EKU

W 89-78

−1.5

CHST

W 95-53

+21.5

USU

L 78-83

+3.5

SIU

W 75-68

+8.5

INST

W 85-65

+6.5

DRKE

W 73-56

+12.5

EVAN

W 73-47

+13.5

VAL

L 71-77

−12.5

UIC

L 59-63

−14.5

INST

L 89-94

−11.5

BRAD

W 88-62

+20.5

UNI

W 59-54

−1.5

BEL

L 69-80

−5.5

MUR

W 70-65

+8.5

SIU

L 50-54

−12.5

DRKE

W 86-76

−0.5

EVAN

L 80-88

−18.5

VAL

W 86-64

+13.5

UIC

L 56-83

−28.5

MUR

W 78-61

+14.5

BRAD

L 60-74

−10.5

UNI

W 71-69

+6.5

BEL

W 81-74

+8.5

UNI

L 52-74

−20.5

KENT

W 79-58

+16.5

WAKE

W 78-75

+11.5

DAY

W 61-55

+13.5

AUB

L 66-88

−14.5

covered 19didn’t cover 16avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OHIO

L 68-72

−21.5

COR

W 76-65

−23.5

USC

L 67-87

−1.5

LBSU

W 82-80

+20.5

CCU

W 94-42

−10.5

CLT

W 79-69

+8.5

FUR

W 72-65

−8.5

EKU

W 89-78

+12.5

CHST

W 95-53

+3.5

USU

L 78-83

+12.5

SIU

W 75-68

−10.5

INST

W 85-65

−2.5

DRKE

W 73-56

−16.5

EVAN

W 73-47

−24.5

VAL

L 71-77

+9.5

UIC

L 59-63

−19.5

INST

L 89-94

+34.5

BRAD

W 88-62

+2.5

UNI

W 59-54

−19.5

BEL

L 69-80

−1.5

MUR

W 70-65

−24.5

SIU

L 50-54

−36.5

DRKE

W 86-76

+17.5

EVAN

L 80-88

+30.5

VAL

W 86-64

+11.5

UIC

L 56-83

−1.5

MUR

W 78-61

−19.5

BRAD

L 60-74

−11.5

UNI

W 71-69

+7.5

BEL

W 81-74

+4.5

UNI

L 52-74

−4.5

KENT

W 79-58

−17.5

WAKE

W 78-75

+0.5

DAY

W 61-55

−24.5

AUB

L 66-88

+4.5

over 15under 20avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: N Dakota St 1, Illinois St 1, even 3

N Dakota StBetterIllinois St

G M. Bell TR8.8 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 19

ILSTBig

G M. Messina-Moore TR10.9 pts · 3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 57

G A. Stefonowicz9.3 pts · 3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 42

Even

G J. Kinziger11.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 51

G R. Diaz TR8.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 79

NDSUBig

G D. Garang TR10.6 pts · 5.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 30

G C. Smith2.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

G Z. King TR7.1 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 24

F K. Poom TR8.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 31

Even

G D. Burch TR9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32

N Dakota StBetterIllinois St

NDSU offense212th of 366 · -6.5

ILSTSmall

ILST defense102nd of 366 · -0.9

NDSU defense209th of 366 · -5.3

ILSTSmall

ILST offense133rd of 366 · -3.9

Backcourt-4.6 · 4 players

NDSUSmall

Backcourt-6.6 · 5 players

Frontcourt-1.0 · 1 player

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-1.0 · 2 players

ILSTBig

Bench+3.4 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestNDSU betterILST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

N Dakota St

Guards

M. Bell34 min · TRA. Stefonowicz33 minR. Diaz22 min · TRC. Smith9 minR. Massey8 minJ. Robison2 min · TR

Forwards

K. Poom20 min · TRA. NagyNewK. TateNewC. SchoenfeldNewO. JunkerNewC. StackNew

Illinois St

Guards

M. Messina-Moore33 min · TRJ. Kinziger33 minD. Garang30 min · TRZ. King27 min · TRD. Burch23 min · TRM. Klabo16 min

Forwards

C. Walker23 minL. Semona6 min · TRN. ClevelandNewN. AllenNewL. WolfNewM. SzafoniNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NDSU78.7 #87

ILST74.1 #191

Points per possession

NDSU1.14 #76

ILST1.09 #151

Pace (possessions)

NDSU69.2 #169

ILST67.7 #241

Shooting

Effective FG%

NDSU53.2 #92

ILST53.6 #77

3-point %

NDSU35.4 #93

ILST34.9 #126

3-point attempt rate

NDSU42.8 #122

ILST43.3 #106

Free throw rate

NDSU30.6 #289

ILST31.6 #266

Possessions

Turnover rate

NDSU15.6 #108

ILST16.8 #193

Offensive rebound rate

NDSU32.9 #89

ILST28.0 #268

Assists per game

NDSU14.8 #97

ILST13.5 #179

Defense

Points allowed

NDSU71.4 #90

ILST69.1 #49

Points allowed per possession

NDSU1.03 #63

ILST1.02 #48

Opponent effective FG%

NDSU52.0 #215

ILST49.8 #90

Opponent 3-point %

NDSU33.9 #173

ILST33.0 #122

Turnovers forced

NDSU18.7 #62

ILST16.0 #221

Defensive rebound rate

NDSU74.5 #15

ILST74.6 #13

Steals per game

NDSU7.7 #64

ILST5.5 #294

Blocks per game

NDSU2.8 #265

ILST2.3 #326

NDSU		ILST
Scoring
78.7 #87	Points per game	74.1 #191
1.14 #76	Points per possession	1.09 #151
69.2 #169	Pace (possessions)	67.7 #241
Shooting
53.2 #92	Effective FG%	53.6 #77
35.4 #93	3-point %	34.9 #126
42.8 #122	3-point attempt rate	43.3 #106
30.6 #289	Free throw rate	31.6 #266
Possessions
15.6 #108	Turnover rate	16.8 #193
32.9 #89	Offensive rebound rate	28.0 #268
14.8 #97	Assists per game	13.5 #179
Defense
71.4 #90	Points allowed	69.1 #49
1.03 #63	Points allowed per possession	1.02 #48
52.0 #215	Opponent effective FG%	49.8 #90
33.9 #173	Opponent 3-point %	33.0 #122
18.7 #62	Turnovers forced	16.0 #221
74.5 #15	Defensive rebound rate	74.6 #13
7.7 #64	Steals per game	5.5 #294
2.8 #265	Blocks per game	2.3 #326

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Dakota St

24-8 in 2025-26 overall · 17-2 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Michigan St67–92
Wvs North Dakota70–62
Wvs Omaha74–50
Wvs Oral Roberts76–65
Wvs North Dakota96–63

A week or more of rest.

Illinois St

22-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Auburn66–88
W@ Dayton61–55
W@ Wake Forest78–75
Wvs Kent State79–58
Lvs Northern Iowa52–74

A week or more of rest.

North Dakota State Bison at Illinois State Redbirds

What could decide it: ILST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

N Dakota St

Illinois St

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

N Dakota St

Illinois St