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  2. Sun, Dec 13
  3. CCSU @ L-MD
NCAAB · Sun, Dec 13

Central Connecticut Blue Devils at Loyola Maryland Greyhounds

Reitz Arena · at Loyola MD
#337CCSUC Connecticut
@
#314L-MDLoyola MD
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CCSUThis seasonL-MD
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects L-MD 74–70 · win probability L-MD 63%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 144.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CCSU has more of the edges

CCSU 4, L-MD 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CCSUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: CCSU 51.6 and allows 50.2; L-MD 50.4 and allows 54.7
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: CCSU plays 65.5 a game (329th fastest), L-MD 69.3 (165th). Faster games mean more points
CCSUSmall
Three-pointers
CCSU hits 35.8% and allows 33.4%; L-MD hits 32.5% and allows 32.8%. Threes are 34.9% and 47.2% of their shots
CCSUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: CCSU 31.2, L-MD 29.9. Allowed: CCSU 26.9, L-MD 32.7
L-MDSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CCSU 16.3%, L-MD 15.4%. Forced: CCSU 14.0%, L-MD 15.4%
CCSUSmall
L-MD offense vs CCSU defense
Offense 307th of 366 against a defense 247th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
CCSU has played the 358th-hardest schedule, L-MD the 299th. A record against a soft schedule means less
L-MDSmall
Home court
L-MD at home. This season: L-MD 0-0 at home, CCSU 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CCSU 55%, L-MD 33%. Transfers in: CCSU 0, L-MD 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
CCSU offense vs L-MD defense
Offense 353rd of 366 against a defense 313th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CCSU 27.5%, L-MD 27.6%. Defensive: CCSU 69.6%, L-MD 71.0%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—L-MD -3.8—
Total—144.0—
Projected score—CCSU 70.1 · L-MD 73.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadL-MD -2.1—
1H total67.4—
1H projected scoreCCSU 32.6 · L-MD 34.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Loyola MD has the better starters

Position by position: C Connecticut 0, Loyola MD 1, even 4
C ConnecticutBetterLoyola MD
G J. Jones4.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 4
L-MDBig
G T. Cicero5.4 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 53
G V. Payne6.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1 ast Score 16
Even
G C. Berg-McLean3.5 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.4 ast Score 21
G E. Parker2 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 0
Even
F S. Springer4.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 4
G R. Jones3.8 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 20
Even
F S. Emenalo3.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 11
F D. James3.2 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 13
No call
F D. Harrison TR2.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
C ConnecticutBetterLoyola MD
CCSU offense353rd of 366 · -13.2
Even
L-MD defense313th of 366 · -8.1
CCSU defense247th of 366 · -6.5
CCSUSmall
L-MD offense307th of 366 · -9.5
Backcourt-10.6 · 4 players
L-MDBig
Backcourt-1.4 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.2 · 1 player
CCSUBig
Frontcourt-4.7 · 3 players
Bench-2.0 · 2 players
CCSUSmall
Bench-3.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCCSU betterL-MD betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
C Connecticut
Guards
J. Jones30 minV. Payne24 minE. Parker14 minR. Jones10 minA. Reynolds10 minR. LaurentNew
Forwards
D. James13 minJ. Mott8 minB. JacksonNewJ. ErvinNewR. TibbyNewC. LangdonNew
Loyola MD
Guards
T. Cicero14 minC. Berg-McLean14 minM. Ortega8 min · TRL. RickettsNewR. LongNewS. BiegNew
Forwards
S. Springer17 minS. Emenalo15 minD. Harrison12 min · TRE. Barnes8 minM. Hagedorn7 min · TRA. Huguet7 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CCSUL-MD
Scoring
70.6 #272Points per game73.7 #212
1.08 #192Points per possession1.06 #227
65.5 #329Pace (possessions)69.3 #165
Shooting
51.6 #165Effective FG%50.4 #219
35.8 #693-point %32.5 #251
34.9 #2783-point attempt rate47.2 #30
31.2 #276Free throw rate29.9 #312
Possessions
16.3 #154Turnover rate15.4 #101
27.5 #281Offensive rebound rate27.6 #279
12.8 #229Assists per game12.6 #246
Defense
72.0 #105Points allowed78.5 #280
1.10 #218Points allowed per possession1.14 #304
50.2 #113Opponent effective FG%54.7 #321
33.4 #146Opponent 3-point %32.8 #106
14.0 #338Turnovers forced15.4 #261
69.6 #179Defensive rebound rate71.0 #103
5.4 #311Steals per game6.1 #221
3.9 #83Blocks per game3.4 #156
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

C Connecticut

16-12 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wagner60–70
  • Wvs Saint Francis Red Wolves69–64
  • Wvs Mercyhurst80–78
  • L@ Chicago St51–70
  • Wvs Le Moyne78–77

A week or more of rest.

Loyola MD

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Colgate77–90
  • W@ Holy Cross76–62
  • Lvs Navy51–78
  • L@ Colgate98–101
  • Lvs Army77–87

A week or more of rest.