Loyola Maryland Greyhounds at Bucknell Bison: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 10, 5:00 PM ETSojka Pavilion · at Bucknell · Conference game

#314L-MDLoyola MD67final

Final

#299BUCKBucknell70▲ winner

Closing lineBUCK -6.5✓ L-MD covered by 3.5

Closing total143.5Under by 6.5

Season records: Loyola MD and Bucknell
L-MD	This season	BUCK
3-11	Record	4-12
6-8	ATS	7-9
8-6	O/U	3-13

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: L-MD 70–75 BUCK · ✓ BUCK (68%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
L-MD	28	39	67
BUCK	28	42	70

1st half: L-MD 28, BUCK 28 (tied). The model had BUCK by 3.1 and a total of 67.8 (actual 56).

Team stats

L-MD		BUCK
23-60 38%	Field goals	26-59 44%
14-37 38%	3-pointers	6-22 27%
7-9 78%	Free throws	12-16 75%
35 11 off	Rebounds	36 12 off
17	Assists	15
10	Steals	9
2	Blocks	2
15	Turnovers	14
15	Fouls	15
16	Points in paint	36
5	Fast-break points	4

Players

L-MD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Braeden Speed G	33	11	5	4	3-9	1-4
Jacob Theodosiou G	32	20	4	4	8-17	4-9
Tyson Commander G	24	4	4	1	1-5	1-2
Sam Springer F	18	6	2	1	2-7	2-5
Jonas Sirtautas F	15	4	2	2	1-2	0-1
Bench
Emmett Adair F	25	7	7	1	3-4	1-2
Troy Cicero Jr. G	22	9	4	1	3-11	3-9
Jordan Stiemke G	15	3	1	0	1-2	1-2
Sebastien Emenalo F	11	3	1	0	1-3	1-3
Carter Berg-McLean G	5	0	1	3	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Peter Sposito, Goap Kodi, Ben Menker, Garrett Brennan, Everett Barnes

BUCK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Amon Dorries C	38	19	6	4	8-13	1-1
Achile Spadone G	36	3	8	2	1-6	0-2
Jayden Williams G	29	8	0	3	2-8	1-5
Pat Curtin G	28	25	5	1	10-17	2-7
Ruot Bijiek F	16	7	5	1	2-6	1-2
Bench
Aleksander Pachucki G	25	4	6	1	1-3	1-3
Jacob Meachem G	11	2	1	1	1-3	0-0
Quin Berger G	10	0	1	2	0-2	0-2
Patrick O'Brien F	7	2	1	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Matt Lange, Grgur Brcic, Kellen Welch, Brandon McCreesh, Josh Fulton, Brady Muller

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BUCK -6.5	BUCK -5.4	L-MD +1.1	W L-MD covered
Total	143.5	144.8	Over 1.3	L Under
Projected score	—	L-MD 69.7 · BUCK 75.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BUCK -3.1	PK
1H total	67.8	56
1H projected score	L-MD 32.4 · BUCK 35.5	L-MD 28 · BUCK 28

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
L-MD LWLLW	6-8	43%	4-4	4-6
BUCK WLLWL	7-9	44%	2-3	3-2

Venue/role: L-MD away, as underdog; BUCK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
L-MD OOUUO	8-6	57%	3-11
BUCK UUUUU	3-13	19%	4-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
L-MD	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
BUCK	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

L-MD 3–6 BUCKBUCK leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · BUCK has won the last 5 meetings · L-MD 3-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 6, 2024-25	L-MD 72 @ BUCK 76	BUCK -9.5	L-MD W
Feb 26, 2024-25	BUCK 70 @ L-MD 67	L-MD +2.5	BUCK W
Jan 29, 2024-25	L-MD 67 @ BUCK 79	BUCK -5.5	BUCK W
Feb 28, 2023-24	BUCK 68 @ L-MD 46	L-MD +4.5	BUCK W
Jan 31, 2023-24	L-MD 52 @ BUCK 67	BUCK -8.5	BUCK W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Loyola MD

14 games played

Straight up

3-11

21% wins

Against the spread

6-8

43% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-6

57% overs · avg +5.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-1121%

L L W L L L W L L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-843%

L L W W W L W L L L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-657%

U U U O O U O O O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTOW	L 56-67	+8.5	L −2.5	141.5	U 123
Nov 11	vsNJIT	L 64-66	-10.5	L −12.5	139.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsSTO	W 74-63	-6.5	W +4.5	138.5	U 137
Nov 16	@FAIR	L 82-85	+5.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 167
Nov 19	@DUQ	L 78-92	+14.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 170
Nov 21	@UK	L 46-88	+35.5	L −6.5	159.5	U 134
Nov 30	vsCOPP	W 95-84	-9.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 179
Dec 3	@HAMP	L 71-93	+6.5	L −15.5	142.5	O 164
Dec 9	@VMI	L 70-86	-2.5	L −18.5	151.5	O 156
Dec 13	vsMSM	L 73-81	+2.5	L −5.5	151.5	O 154
Dec 21	@GMU	L 79-86	+23.5	W +16.5	146.5	O 165
Dec 31	@AMER	L 69-84	+8.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 153
Jan 3	vsLAF	L 64-79	+1.5	L −13.5	152.5	U 143
Jan 7	@ARMY	W 84-76	+4.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOW

L 56-67

−2.5

NJIT

L 64-66

−12.5

STO

W 74-63

+4.5

FAIR

L 82-85

+2.5

DUQ

L 78-92

+0.5

L 46-88

−6.5

COPP

W 95-84

+1.5

HAMP

L 71-93

−15.5

VMI

L 70-86

−18.5

MSM

L 73-81

−5.5

GMU

L 79-86

+16.5

AMER

L 69-84

−6.5

LAF

L 64-79

−13.5

ARMY

W 84-76

+12.5

covered 6didn’t cover 8avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOW

L 56-67

−18.5

NJIT

L 64-66

−9.5

STO

W 74-63

−1.5

FAIR

L 82-85

+31.5

DUQ

L 78-92

+19.5

L 46-88

−25.5

COPP

W 95-84

+35.5

HAMP

L 71-93

+21.5

VMI

L 70-86

+4.5

MSM

L 73-81

+2.5

GMU

L 79-86

+18.5

AMER

L 69-84

−1.5

LAF

L 64-79

−9.5

ARMY

W 84-76

+13.5

over 8under 6avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bucknell

16 games played

Straight up

4-12

25% wins

Against the spread

7-9

44% covers · avg −5.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-13

19% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-1225%

W W L L L L L L L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-944%

W W L L L L W W L W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-1319%

U U U O U U U U O O U U U U U U

6 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDEL	W 78-70	-2.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 148
Nov 7	@MSM	W 73-62	+1.5	W +12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@PRIN	L 63-73	+4.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 14	vsHOF	L 77-83	+4.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 160
Nov 17	@PITT	L 50-84	+16.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 134
Nov 20	@SJU	L 49-97	+28.5	L −19.5	158.5	U 146
Nov 24	vsBGSU	L 66-71	+10.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsBUF	L 71-73	+4.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 30	vsCOR	L 72-101	+5.5	L −23.5	159.5	O 173
Dec 3	@AKR	L 77-97	+23.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 174
Dec 6	vsUMBC	L 66-73	-1.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 9	@RID	W 51-38	-2.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 89
Dec 20	@IOWA	L 39-94	+25.5	L −29.5	133.5	U 133
Dec 31	@HC	L 58-65	-1.5	L −8.5	133.5	U 123
Jan 3	vsLEH	W 72-65	-4.5	W +2.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 7	@NAVY	L 55-76	+8.5	L −12.5	137.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

+5.5

MSM

W 73-62

+12.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−5.5

HOF

L 77-83

−1.5

PITT

L 50-84

−17.5

SJU

L 49-97

−19.5

BGSU

L 66-71

+5.5

BUF

L 71-73

+2.5

COR

L 72-101

−23.5

AKR

L 77-97

+3.5

UMBC

L 66-73

−8.5

RID

W 51-38

+10.5

IOWA

L 39-94

−29.5

L 58-65

−8.5

LEH

W 72-65

+2.5

NAVY

L 55-76

−12.5

covered 7didn’t cover 9avg −5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

−1.5

MSM

W 73-62

−8.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−10.5

HOF

L 77-83

+20.5

PITT

L 50-84

−7.5

SJU

L 49-97

−12.5

BGSU

L 66-71

−7.5

BUF

L 71-73

−2.5

COR

L 72-101

+13.5

AKR

L 77-97

+16.5

UMBC

L 66-73

−4.5

RID

W 51-38

−46.5

IOWA

L 39-94

−0.5

L 58-65

−10.5

LEH

W 72-65

−0.5

NAVY

L 55-76

−6.5

over 3under 13avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Loyola Maryland Greyhounds at Bucknell Bison

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Loyola MD

Bucknell

Loyola MD

Bucknell