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  2. Sun, Dec 13
  3. PEPP @ SAC
NCAAB · Sun, Dec 13

Pepperdine Waves at Sacramento State Hornets

Hornet Pavilion · at Sacramento St
#172PEPPPepperdine
@
#196SACSacramento St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PEPPThis seasonSAC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SAC 79–78 · win probability SAC 56%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 156.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SAC has more of the edges

PEPP 2, SAC 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SACBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: PEPP 18.3%, SAC 14.1%. Forced: PEPP 16.5%, SAC 17.1%
PEPPBig
PEPP offense vs SAC defense
Offense 139th of 366 against a defense 262nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
PEPP has played the 128th-hardest schedule, SAC the 248th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SACSmall
SAC offense vs PEPP defense
Offense 146th of 366 against a defense 216th, on the model’s ratings
SACSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: PEPP 5%, SAC 42%. Transfers in: PEPP 7, SAC 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
SACSmall
Home court
SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-0 at home, PEPP 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: PEPP plays 70.0 a game (117th fastest), SAC 72.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points
PEPPSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: PEPP 29.1%, SAC 25.2%. Defensive: PEPP 66.0%, SAC 66.6%
Even
Three-pointers
PEPP hits 31.4% and allows 35.5%; SAC hits 31.9% and allows 35.1%. Threes are 39.2% and 35.6% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: PEPP 47.6 and allows 54.2; SAC 47.0 and allows 55.0
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: PEPP 33.9, SAC 41.2. Allowed: PEPP 28.5, SAC 36.2
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SAC -1.6—
Total—156.9—
Projected score—PEPP 77.6 · SAC 79.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSAC -0.8—
1H total73.3—
1H projected scorePEPP 36.2 · SAC 37.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Pepperdine has the better starters

Position by position: Pepperdine 1, Sacramento St 0, even 4
PepperdineBetterSacramento St
G J. Williamson TR10.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 58
Even
G M. Williams18.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 4.1 ast Score 56
G W. McClendon TR13.7 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G L. Hughes TR17.9 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 77
F P. Majstorovic TR14.4 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.8 ast Score 78
Even
G M. Wilson TR12.5 pts · 3.1 reb · 3.9 ast Score 76
F Y. Fritz TR9.8 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 58
Even
G A. Madi7.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 44
F E. Meuser TR6.1 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 39
PEPPSmall
F O. Grady TR9.7 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 21
PepperdineBetterSacramento St
PEPP offense139th of 366 · -4.2
PEPPSmall
SAC defense262nd of 366 · -6.8
PEPP defense216th of 366 · -5.6
SACSmall
SAC offense146th of 366 · -4.4
Backcourt+1.6 · 2 players
Even
Backcourt+0.9 · 4 players
Frontcourt+1.2 · 3 players
PEPPBig
Frontcourt-2.3 · 1 player
Bench-1.6 · 3 players
PEPPSmall
Bench-3.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPEPP betterSAC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Pepperdine
Guards
J. Williamson26 min · TRW. McClendon25 min · TRE. Haywood19 min · TRD. Mager10 minA. BalianNewC. ChouNew
Forwards
P. Majstorovic32 min · TRY. Fritz26 min · TRE. Meuser21 min · TRA. Robinson10 min · TRA. ConstanzaNewF. BiberovicNew
Sacramento St
Guards
M. Williams36 minL. Hughes32 min · TRM. Wilson27 min · TRA. Madi24 minT. Glover14 minR. Robinson11 min
Forwards
O. Grady31 min · TRR. Tutic23 min · TRS. Ciani10 min · TRM. HuntNewG. AsimakopoulosNew
Centers
J. Das Chagas7 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PEPPSAC
Scoring
70.4 #277Points per game75.9 #144
1.00 #320Points per possession1.05 #258
70.0 #117Pace (possessions)72.6 #24
Shooting
47.6 #323Effective FG%47.0 #337
31.4 #3103-point %31.9 #284
39.2 #1873-point attempt rate35.6 #257
33.9 #216Free throw rate41.2 #41
Possessions
18.3 #288Turnover rate14.1 #26
29.1 #234Offensive rebound rate25.2 #336
13.6 #176Assists per game12.1 #275
Defense
79.7 #311Points allowed83.6 #352
1.14 #303Points allowed per possession1.15 #327
54.2 #306Opponent effective FG%55.0 #331
35.5 #276Opponent 3-point %35.1 #257
16.5 #184Turnovers forced17.1 #140
66.0 #318Defensive rebound rate66.6 #306
5.9 #246Steals per game7.5 #76
2.8 #269Blocks per game2.7 #280
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pepperdine

7-23 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Portland68–77
  • Wvs Washington St88–79
  • Lvs Seattle U80–87
  • L@ Oregon St73–83
  • W@ Portland95–87

A week or more of rest.

Sacramento St

7-21 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Idaho45–68
  • Wvs Idaho St83–65
  • L@ Montana St61–82
  • L@ Montana73–81
  • Lvs Idaho80–86

A week or more of rest.