Hornet Pavilion · at Sacramento St · Conference game
Closing line
MTST -4.5✓ SAC covered by 7.5
MTST -4.5✓ SAC covered by 7.5Closing total153.5Over by 9.5
| MTST | This season | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 10-8 | Record | 3-13 |
| 12-6 | ATS | 7-9 |
| 10-8 | O/U | 9-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MTST 79–75 SAC · ✗ MTST (66%) lost
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTST | 38 | 42 | 80 |
| SAC | 45 | 38 | 83 |
1st half: MTST 38, SAC 45 (SAC by 7). The model had MTST by 2.9 and a total of 72.0 (actual 83).
Team stats
| MTST | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-64 41% | Field goals | 32-57 56% |
| 15-35 43% | 3-pointers | 8-18 44% |
| 13-19 68% | Free throws | 11-14 79% |
| 39 14 off | Rebounds | 30 3 off |
| 13 | Assists | 13 |
| 9 | Steals | 11 |
| 4 | Blocks | 4 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 18 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 24 |
Players
| MTST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jed Miller G | 37 | 25 | 11 | 5 | 8-15 | 6-12 |
| Christian King F | 35 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 8-18 | 3-10 |
| Patrick McMahon G | 35 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Jeremiah Davis G | 29 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 3-9 | 2-3 |
| Chris Hodges F | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaden Steppe F | 24 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 3-7 | 1-3 |
| Seth Amunrud G | 21 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3-8 | 3-6 |
| Howie Keene G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Davian Brown, James Steward, Cavin Holden, CJ Purdie, Waka Mbatch, Grayson Gaddis, Calum Rutherfurd
| SAC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Lavrenov F | 38 | 17 | 12 | 0 | 6-7 | 2-2 |
| Mikey Williams G | 36 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 7-16 | 2-6 |
| Prophet Johnson G | 35 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 12-18 | 3-5 |
| Jahni Summers G | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2-7 | 0-3 |
| Shaqir O'Neal F | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Arman Madi G | 29 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 4-4 | 1-1 |
| Romari Robinson G | 16 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Taj Glover G | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Brandon Gardner, Isaiah Bronson, Zach Anderson, Jeremiah Nyarko, Bear Cherry, Davis Ambuehl, Jayden Teat
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMTST -4.5
no move
CloseMTST -4.5
No change since the open
Total
Open153.5
no move
Close153.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
MTST -205 · SAC +170
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MTST -4.5 · unchangedmodel MTST -4.5 matches the line
model MTST -4.5 = line ✓
Opened 153.5 · unchangedmodel 154
model 154
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MTST -4.5 | MTST -4.6 | MTST +0.1 | L SAC covered |
| Total | 153.5 | 153.8 | Over 0.3 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | MTST 79.2 · SAC 74.6 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MTST -2.9 | SAC -7.0 |
| 1H total | 72.0 | 83 |
| 1H projected score | MTST 37.4 · SAC 34.6 | MTST 38 · SAC 45 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTST | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
| SAC | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
MTST 9–1 SACMTST leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MTST has won the last 3 meetings · MTST 5-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2024-25 | MTST 87 @ SAC 60 | SAC +5.5 | MTST W |
| Jan 30, 2024-25 | SAC 58 @ MTST 70 | MTST -10.5 | MTST W |
| Mar 12, 2023-24 | SAC 71 vs MTST 74 | MTST -4.5 | SAC W |
| Feb 24, 2023-24 | SAC 66 @ MTST 63 | MTST -7.5 | SAC W |
| Jan 25, 2023-24 | MTST 70 @ SAC 62 | SAC -1.5 | MTST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Montana St
18 games played
Straight up
10-8
56% wins
Against the spread
12-6
67% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-8
56% overs · avg +1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ COLO | L 78-84 | +11.5 | W +5.5 | 148.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 9 | vs DEN | L 73-75 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 12 | @ STAN | L 68-77 | +14.5 | W +5.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 15 | @ BOIS | L 58-62 | +16.5 | W +12.5 | 147.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 21 | @ LBSU | W 78-72 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 140.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 29 | @ USU | L 81-84 | +17.5 | W +14.5 | 148.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 3 | vs STMN | W 82-74 | -2.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 6 | @ ORU | L 68-72 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 13 | @ ORST | L 57-67 | +1.5 | L −8.5 | 140.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 16 | @ CP | W 83-80 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 1 | vs UNCO | W 89-75 | -2.5 | W +11.5 | 154.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 3 | vs NAU | W 77-68 | -10.5 | L −1.5 | 143.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 8 | @ EWU | W 68-64 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 156.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 10 | @ IDHO | L 89-92 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 17 | vs MONT | W 76-67 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 19 | @UNCO | W 73-68 | +2.5 | W +7.5 | 153.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 22 | vs IDST | W 74-62 | -5.5 | W +6.5 | 144.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 24 | vs WEB | W 91-88 | -6.5 | L −3.5 | 147.5 | O 179 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@COLO
COLOL 78-84
+5.5
9
vsDEN
DENL 73-75
−9.5
12
@STAN
STANL 68-77
+5.5
15
@BOIS
BOISL 58-62
+12.5
21
@LBSU
LBSUW 78-72
+2.5
29
@USU
USUL 81-84
+14.5
3
vsSTMN
STMNW 82-74
+5.5
6
@ORU
ORUL 68-72
−10.5
13
@ORST
ORSTL 57-67
−8.5
16
@CP
CPW 83-80
+0.5
1
vsUNCO
UNCOW 89-75
+11.5
3
vsNAU
NAUW 77-68
−1.5
8
@EWU
EWUW 68-64
+1.5
10
@IDHO
IDHOL 89-92
−1.5
17
vsMONT
MONTW 76-67
+3.5
19
@UNCO
UNCOW 73-68
+7.5
22
vsIDST
IDSTW 74-62
+6.5
24
vsWEB
WEBW 91-88
−3.5
covered 12didn’t cover 6avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@COLO
COLOL 78-84
+13.5
9
vsDEN
DENL 73-75
+1.5
12
@STAN
STANL 68-77
−3.5
15
@BOIS
BOISL 58-62
−27.5
21
@LBSU
LBSUW 78-72
+9.5
29
@USU
USUL 81-84
+16.5
3
vsSTMN
STMNW 82-74
+8.5
6
@ORU
ORUL 68-72
−10.5
13
@ORST
ORSTL 57-67
−16.5
16
@CP
CPW 83-80
+3.5
1
vsUNCO
UNCOW 89-75
+9.5
3
vsNAU
NAUW 77-68
+1.5
8
@EWU
EWUW 68-64
−24.5
10
@IDHO
IDHOL 89-92
+36.5
17
vsMONT
MONTW 76-67
−7.5
19
@UNCO
UNCOW 73-68
−12.5
22
vsIDST
IDSTW 74-62
−8.5
24
vsWEB
WEBW 91-88
+31.5
over 10under 8avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Sacramento St
16 games played
Straight up
3-13
19% wins
Against the spread
7-9
44% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-7
56% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 | vs UCSB | L 87-92 | +7.5 | W +2.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 14 | @ UCD | L 73-77 | +4.5 | W +0.5 | 151.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 16 | vs PRES | W 64-62 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 150.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 18 | @ UCLA | L 48-79 | +27.5 | L −3.5 | 146.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 21 | @ CAL | L 67-91 | +21.5 | L −2.5 | 154.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 29 | @ PAC | L 54-68 | +10.5 | L −3.5 | 146.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 2 | @ BAY | L 88-110 | +29.5 | W +7.5 | 158.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 20 | @ CBU | L 67-74 | +14.5 | W +7.5 | 158.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 22 | @ CSUN | L 88-100 | +8.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | O 188 |
| Jan 1 | @IDST | L 84-97 | +8.5 | L −4.5 | 153.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 3 | @WEB | L 82-95 | +6.5 | L −6.5 | 168.5 | O 177 |
| Jan 10 | @ PRST | L 69-96 | +9.5 | L −17.5 | 160.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 15 | vsNAU | W 83-69 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 17 | vsUNCO | W 93-89 | +6.5 | W +10.5 | 163.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 22 | @IDHO | L 76-86 | +10.5 | W +0.5 | 161.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 24 | @EWU | L 67-75 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 163.5 | U 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
11
vsUCSB
UCSBL 87-92
+2.5
14
@UCD
UCDL 73-77
+0.5
16
vsPRES
PRESW 64-62
−4.5
18
@UCLA
UCLAL 48-79
−3.5
21
@CAL
CALL 67-91
−2.5
29
@PAC
PACL 54-68
−3.5
2
@BAY
BAYL 88-110
+7.5
20
@CBU
CBUL 67-74
+7.5
22
@CSUN
CSUNL 88-100
−3.5
1
@IDST
IDSTL 84-97
−4.5
3
@WEB
WEBL 82-95
−6.5
10
@PRST
PRSTL 69-96
−17.5
15
vsNAU
NAUW 83-69
+12.5
17
vsUNCO
UNCOW 93-89
+10.5
22
@IDHO
IDHOL 76-86
+0.5
24
@EWU
EWUL 67-75
−2.5
covered 7didn’t cover 9avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
11
vsUCSB
UCSBL 87-92
+17.5
14
@UCD
UCDL 73-77
−1.5
16
vsPRES
PRESW 64-62
−24.5
18
@UCLA
UCLAL 48-79
−19.5
21
@CAL
CALL 67-91
+3.5
29
@PAC
PACL 54-68
−24.5
2
@BAY
BAYL 88-110
+39.5
20
@CBU
CBUL 67-74
−17.5
22
@CSUN
CSUNL 88-100
+23.5
1
@IDST
IDSTL 84-97
+27.5
3
@WEB
WEBL 82-95
+8.5
10
@PRST
PRSTL 69-96
+4.5
15
vsNAU
NAUW 83-69
−1.5
17
vsUNCO
UNCOW 93-89
+18.5
22
@IDHO
IDHOL 76-86
+0.5
24
@EWU
EWUL 67-75
−21.5
over 9under 7avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Montana St
10-8 overall · 7-1 in conference · Big Sky Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Weber St91–88
- Wvs Idaho St74–62
- W@ N Colorado73–68
- Wvs Montana76–67
- L@ Idaho89–92
5 days since their last game.
Sacramento St
3-13 overall · 2-5 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ E Washington67–75
- L@ Idaho76–86
- Wvs N Colorado93–89
- Wvs N Arizona83–69
- L@ Portland St69–96
5 days since their last game.