1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Dec 13
  3. LEM @ FAIR
NCAAB · Sun, Dec 13

Le Moyne Dolphins at Fairfield Stags

Leo D. Mahoney Arena · at Fairfield
#332LEMLe Moyne
@
#239FAIRFairfield
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LEMThis seasonFAIR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FAIR 76–68 · win probability FAIR 76%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 143.7
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FAIR has more of the edges

LEM 2, FAIR 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
FAIRBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LEM 19.1%, FAIR 15.4%. Forced: LEM 15.0%, FAIR 16.8%
FAIRBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LEM 25.2%, FAIR 35.8%. Defensive: LEM 71.0%, FAIR 70.9%
FAIRBig
LEM offense vs FAIR defense
Offense 333rd of 366 against a defense 195th, on the model’s ratings
LEMBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: LEM 52.6 and allows 49.3; FAIR 48.8 and allows 51.0
LEMBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: LEM 39.5, FAIR 27.7. Allowed: LEM 32.7, FAIR 30.4
FAIRSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LEM 24%, FAIR 53%. Transfers in: LEM 7, FAIR 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
FAIRSmall
Home court
FAIR at home. This season: FAIR 0-0 at home, LEM 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: LEM plays 69.2 a game (168th fastest), FAIR 67.3 (263rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
FAIR offense vs LEM defense
Offense 282nd of 366 against a defense 308th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
LEM hits 34.3% and allows 36.0%; FAIR hits 33.2% and allows 34.3%. Threes are 40.8% and 35.4% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
LEM has played the 344th-hardest schedule, FAIR the 359th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FAIR -8.2—
Total—143.7—
Projected score—LEM 67.7 · FAIR 76

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFAIR -4.8—
1H total67.2—
1H projected scoreLEM 31.2 · FAIR 36—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Le Moyne 1, Fairfield 1, even 3
Le MoyneBetterFairfield
G A. Moss10 pts · 7 reb · 5 ast Not ranked
No call
G D. Wucherpfennig11.8 pts · 8.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 71
G J. Clayville TR6.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11
Even
G T. Williams6.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19
G D. King TR4.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 59
LEMBig
G E. Mejia4.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 11
F K. Stuckey TR4.4 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 5
Even
G H. Rawlins3.6 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 4
F T. Francis TR4.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 27
FAIRBig
F Q. Martin TR12.1 pts · 7.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76
Le MoyneBetterFairfield
LEM offense333rd of 366 · -10.8
FAIRBig
FAIR defense195th of 366 · -4.8
LEM defense308th of 366 · -8.0
Even
FAIR offense282nd of 366 · -8.7
Backcourt-4.4 · 3 players
LEMSmall
Backcourt-5.9 · 4 players
Frontcourt-3.3 · 2 players
FAIRBig
Frontcourt+1.7 · 1 player
Bench-6.1 · 5 players
FAIRBig
Bench-2.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestLEM betterFAIR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Le Moyne
Guards
A. Moss37 minJ. Clayville20 min · TRD. King14 min · TRJ. Teat14 min · TRK. Williams12 min · TRJ. Lee4 min
Forwards
K. Stuckey19 min · TRT. Francis15 min · TRT. Roe7 minI. BrownNewC. SchreinerNewC. JohnsonNew
Centers
P. Hartman9 min · TR
Fairfield
Guards
D. Wucherpfennig32 minT. Williams20 minE. Mejia19 minH. Rawlins17 minN. Rodriguez7 minJ. Ganton2 min
Forwards
Q. Martin32 min · TRM. Radunovic9 min · TRI. Munkadi9 minP. SmithNewO. SackoNewB. JonesNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LEMFAIR
Scoring
72.3 #234Points per game72.9 #226
1.04 #265Points per possession1.09 #166
69.2 #168Pace (possessions)67.3 #263
Shooting
52.6 #118Effective FG%48.8 #294
34.3 #1523-point %33.2 #216
40.8 #1513-point attempt rate35.4 #262
39.5 #68Free throw rate27.7 #346
Possessions
19.1 #323Turnover rate15.4 #96
25.2 #337Offensive rebound rate35.8 #29
14.0 #149Assists per game12.1 #277
Defense
73.9 #154Points allowed71.9 #104
1.07 #132Points allowed per possession1.06 #118
49.3 #75Opponent effective FG%51.0 #159
36.0 #303Opponent 3-point %34.3 #200
15.0 #289Turnovers forced16.8 #169
71.0 #107Defensive rebound rate70.9 #116
5.5 #300Steals per game6.5 #183
3.3 #177Blocks per game3.5 #145
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Le Moyne

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Stonehill71–81
  • L@ New Haven59–66
  • Wvs FDU76–59
  • L@ Stonehill68–77
  • L@ C Connecticut77–78

A week or more of rest.

Fairfield

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 13-10 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Siena61–76
  • Wvs Saint Peter's74–55
  • Wvs Manhattan71–60
  • Lvs Mount St Marys47–69
  • Wvs Siena72–58

A week or more of rest.