Leo D. Mahoney Arena · at Fairfield · Conference game
Closing line
FAIR -10.5✓ NIA covered by 9.5
FAIR -10.5✓ NIA covered by 9.5Closing total139.5Under by 16.5
 NIA | This season | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| 4-13 | Record | 10-9 |
| 5-12 | ATS | 7-12 |
| 7-10 | O/U | 11-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NIA 65–76 FAIR · ✓ FAIR (82%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIA | 30 | 31 | 61 |
| FAIR | 31 | 31 | 62 |
1st half: NIA 30, FAIR 31 (FAIR by 1). The model had FAIR by 6.2 and a total of 66.2 (actual 61).
Team stats
| NIA | FAIR | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-56 43% | Field goals | 25-61 41% |
| 7-21 33% | 3-pointers | 7-24 29% |
| 6-8 75% | Free throws | 5-9 56% |
| 31 6 off | Rebounds | 41 13 off |
| 12 | Assists | 14 |
| 6 | Steals | 8 |
| 4 | Blocks | 1 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| NIA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Prudhomme G | 33 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 3-8 | 1-5 |
| Justin Page G | 31 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 6-11 | 1-4 |
| Josiah Sabino G | 28 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 5-9 | 1-3 |
| Trenton Walters G | 27 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1-11 | 1-3 |
| Will Shortt F | 24 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Vice Zanki F | 23 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 4-6 | 3-4 |
| Justin Hawkins F | 20 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Landon Williams G | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Kabeya Tshibangu C | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Brian Griffith G | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Gael Dalmau, Drew Larson, AJ McBride
| FAIR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Benjamin F | 38 | 18 | 11 | 1 | 8-12 | 0-0 |
| Braden Sparks G | 36 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 4-18 | 1-7 |
| Declan Wucherpfennig G | 35 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 5-9 | 1-1 |
| Tony Williams G | 30 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 4-10 | 3-8 |
| Halon Rawlins G | 26 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Eric Mejia G | 15 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Deuce Turner G | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Ryan Zan F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Isaac Munkadi F | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tanner Ostop, Nasir Rodriguez, Aidan May, Peyton Smith, Joe Ganton, Luke Davidson, Matt Curtis, Cam Estevez, Michael Rogan, Noah Best
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketFAIR -10.5
ModelFAIR -10.6
Model edgeFAIR +0.1
L NIA covered
Total
Market139.5
Model141.4
Model edgeOver 1.9
L Under
Projected score
NIA 65.4 · FAIR 76
NIA 61 · FAIR 62
Win probability
FAIR 82%
1st half
Spread
FAIR -6.2
FAIR -1.0
Total
66.2
61 points
Projected score
NIA 30 · FAIR 36.2
NIA 30 · FAIR 31
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenFAIR -10.5
no move
CloseFAIR -10.5
No change since the open
Total
Open139.5
no move
Close139.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
NIA +410 · FAIR -550
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened FAIR -10.5 · unchangedmodel FAIR -10.5 matches the line
model FAIR -10.5 = line ✓
Opened 139.5 · unchangedmodel 141.5
model 141.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIA | 2-8 20% | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% |
| FAIR | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
NIA 4–4 FAIRSeries tied · 8 games since 2021-22 · FAIR has won the last 2 meetings · NIA 4-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2025-26 | FAIR 83 @ NIA 75 | NIA +3.5 | FAIR W |
| Jan 16, 2024-25 | NIA 66 @ FAIR 70 | FAIR -1.5 | FAIR W |
| Feb 16, 2023-24 | NIA 65 @ FAIR 63 | FAIR -6.5 | NIA W |
| Jan 12, 2023-24 | FAIR 72 @ NIA 96 | NIA +1.5 | NIA W |
| Feb 24, 2022-23 | FAIR 68 @ NIA 76 | NIA -1.5 | NIA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Niagara
17 games played
Straight up
4-13
24% wins
Against the spread
5-12
29% covers · avg −4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-10
41% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ DUQ | L 63-83 | +17.5 | L −2.5 | 139.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 8 | @ BING | W 67-59 | +2.5 | W +10.5 | 138.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 10 | vs DSU | W 68-57 | -5.5 | W +5.5 | 137.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 17 | @ LEM | L 68-74 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 138.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 21 | @ DUKE | L 42-100 | +39.5 | L −18.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 22 | vs HOW | L 70-80 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 138.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 29 | vs DETM | L 66-70 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 142.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 5 | @ SIE | L 54-83 | +12.5 | L −16.5 | 129.5 | O 137 |
| Dec 7 | @ SPU | L 43-71 | +5.5 | L −22.5 | 131.5 | U 114 |
| Dec 13 | @ MORG | L 73-81 | +1.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 15 | @ VCU | L 58-84 | +30.5 | W +4.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Jan 2 | vs SHU | W 64-61 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 139.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 4 | vsFAIR | L 75-83 | +3.5 | L −4.5 | 138.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 9 | @ IONA | L 53-71 | +10.5 | L −7.5 | 140.5 | U 124 |
| Jan 11 | @ MAN | L 70-79 | +5.5 | L −3.5 | 140.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 14 | @ CAN | W 59-54 | +2.5 | W +7.5 | 126.5 | U 113 |
| Jan 19 | vs MSM | L 58-68 | +3.5 | L −6.5 | 131.5 | U 126 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@DUQ
DUQL 63-83
−2.5
8
@BING
BINGW 67-59
+10.5
10
vsDSU
DSUW 68-57
+5.5
17
@LEM
LEML 68-74
−3.5
21
@DUKE
DUKEL 42-100
−18.5
22
vsHOW
HOWL 70-80
−5.5
29
vsDETM
DETML 66-70
−2.5
5
@SIE
SIEL 54-83
−16.5
7
@SPU
SPUL 43-71
−22.5
13
@MORG
MORGL 73-81
−6.5
15
@VCU
VCUL 58-84
+4.5
2
vsSHU
SHUW 64-61
+4.5
4
vsFAIR
FAIRL 75-83
−4.5
9
@IONA
IONAL 53-71
−7.5
11
@MAN
MANL 70-79
−3.5
14
@CAN
CANW 59-54
+7.5
19
vsMSM
MSML 58-68
−6.5
covered 5didn’t cover 12avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@DUQ
DUQL 63-83
+6.5
8
@BING
BINGW 67-59
−12.5
10
vsDSU
DSUW 68-57
−12.5
17
@LEM
LEML 68-74
+3.5
21
@DUKE
DUKEL 42-100
−4.5
22
vsHOW
HOWL 70-80
+11.5
29
vsDETM
DETML 66-70
−6.5
5
@SIE
SIEL 54-83
+7.5
7
@SPU
SPUL 43-71
−17.5
13
@MORG
MORGL 73-81
+13.5
15
@VCU
VCUL 58-84
−1.5
2
vsSHU
SHUW 64-61
−14.5
4
vsFAIR
FAIRL 75-83
+19.5
9
@IONA
IONAL 53-71
−16.5
11
@MAN
MANL 70-79
+8.5
14
@CAN
CANW 59-54
−13.5
19
vsMSM
MSML 58-68
−5.5
over 7under 10avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Fairfield
19 games played
Straight up
10-9
53% wins
Against the spread
7-12
37% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-8
58% overs · avg +5.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ PSU | L 68-76 | +15.5 | W +7.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 8 | @ NJIT | W 74-53 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 145.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 10 | @ HALL | L 59-82 | +14.5 | L −8.5 | 137.5 | O 141 |
| Nov 14 | vs STO | W 73-71 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 16 | vs L-MD | W 85-82 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 135.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 22 | @LEM | W 97-83 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 26 | vs COLU | L 77-106 | +3.5 | L −25.5 | 150.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 30 | vs UNH | W 72-68 | -9.5 | L −5.5 | 147.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 5 | @MAN | L 66-70 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 7 | @ MRMK | L 63-74 | +3.5 | L −7.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 14 | vs MONM | W 73-65 | +2.5 | W +10.5 | 143.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | @ CCSU | W 84-70 | +6.5 | W +20.5 | 143.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 29 | vsSPU | L 66-70 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 2 | @CAN | L 81-85 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 4 | @NIA | W 83-75 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 138.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 9 | vs RID | W 68-62 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 14 | vsMAN | W 98-62 | -6.5 | W +29.5 | 158.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 17 | @ MRST | L 67-82 | +8.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 19 | @SIE | L 77-85 | +6.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 162 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@PSU
PSUL 68-76
+7.5
8
@NJIT
NJITW 74-53
+14.5
10
@HALL
HALLL 59-82
−8.5
14
vsSTO
STOW 73-71
−4.5
16
vsL-MD
L-MDW 85-82
−2.5
22
@LEM
LEMW 97-83
+12.5
26
vsCOLU
COLUL 77-106
−25.5
30
vsUNH
UNHW 72-68
−5.5
5
@MAN
MANL 66-70
−5.5
7
@MRMK
MRMKL 63-74
−7.5
14
vsMONM
MONMW 73-65
+10.5
18
@CCSU
CCSUW 84-70
+20.5
29
vsSPU
SPUL 66-70
−6.5
2
@CAN
CANL 81-85
−10.5
4
@NIA
NIAW 83-75
+4.5
9
vsRID
RIDW 68-62
−2.5
14
vsMAN
MANW 98-62
+29.5
17
@MRST
MRSTL 67-82
−6.5
19
@SIE
SIEL 77-85
−1.5
covered 7didn’t cover 12avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@PSU
PSUL 68-76
−7.5
8
@NJIT
NJITW 74-53
−18.5
10
@HALL
HALLL 59-82
+3.5
14
vsSTO
STOW 73-71
+0.5
16
vsL-MD
L-MDW 85-82
+31.5
22
@LEM
LEMW 97-83
+34.5
26
vsCOLU
COLUL 77-106
+32.5
30
vsUNH
UNHW 72-68
−7.5
5
@MAN
MANL 66-70
−19.5
7
@MRMK
MRMKL 63-74
−7.5
14
vsMONM
MONMW 73-65
−5.5
18
@CCSU
CCSUW 84-70
+10.5
29
vsSPU
SPUL 66-70
−4.5
2
@CAN
CANL 81-85
+25.5
4
@NIA
NIAW 83-75
+19.5
9
vsRID
RIDW 68-62
−15.5
14
vsMAN
MANW 98-62
+1.5
17
@MRST
MRSTL 67-82
+7.5
19
@SIE
SIEL 77-85
+19.5
over 11under 8avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Niagara
4-13 overall · 2-6 in conference · Metro Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Mount St Marys58–68
- W@ Canisius59–54
- L@ Manhattan70–79
- L@ Iona53–71
- Lvs Fairfield75–83
3 days since their last game.
Fairfield
10-9 overall · 3-6 in conference · Metro Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Siena77–85
- L@ Marist67–82
- Wvs Manhattan98–62
- Wvs Rider68–62
- W@ Niagara83–75
3 days since their last game.