1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 15
  3. CCSU @ VCU
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 15

Central Connecticut Blue Devils at VCU Rams

Siegel Center · at VCU
#337CCSUC Connecticut
@
#61VCUVCU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CCSUThis seasonVCU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VCU 87–58 · win probability VCU 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
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no line yet
Total
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model 144.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VCU has more of the edges

CCSU 0, VCU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
VCUBig
CCSU offense vs VCU defense
Offense 353rd of 366 against a defense 50th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
CCSU has played the 358th-hardest schedule, VCU the 88th. A record against a soft schedule means less
VCUBig
VCU offense vs CCSU defense
Offense 65th of 366 against a defense 247th, on the model’s ratings
VCUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CCSU 16.3%, VCU 15.1%. Forced: CCSU 14.0%, VCU 17.0%
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: CCSU plays 65.5 a game (329th fastest), VCU 69.5 (147th). Faster games mean more points
VCUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CCSU 27.5%, VCU 31.6%. Defensive: CCSU 69.6%, VCU 70.0%
VCUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: CCSU 31.2, VCU 42.0. Allowed: CCSU 26.9, VCU 32.8
VCUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: CCSU 51.6 and allows 50.2; VCU 53.6 and allows 49.0
VCUSmall
Home court
VCU at home. This season: VCU 0-0 at home, CCSU 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
CCSU hits 35.8% and allows 33.4%; VCU hits 36.3% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 34.9% and 43.8% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CCSU 55%, VCU 65%. Transfers in: CCSU 0, VCU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—VCU -28.2—
Total—144.8—
Projected score—CCSU 58.3 · VCU 86.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadVCU -16.6—
1H total67.7—
1H projected scoreCCSU 25.5 · VCU 42.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

VCU has the better starters

Position by position: C Connecticut 0, VCU 5, even 0
C ConnecticutBetterVCU
G J. Jones4.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 4
VCUBig
G N. Ralph-Beyer TR14.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 61
G V. Payne6.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1 ast Score 16
VCUBig
G B. Jennings8.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 79
G E. Parker2 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 0
VCUBig
G N. Lewis8.7 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 79
G R. Jones3.8 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 20
VCUBig
F T. Alston TR13.3 pts · 8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 85
F D. James3.2 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 13
VCUBig
F L. Djokovic13.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90
C ConnecticutBetterVCU
CCSU offense353rd of 366 · -13.2
VCUBig
VCU defense50th of 366 · +2.0
CCSU defense247th of 366 · -6.5
VCUBig
VCU offense65th of 366 · +2.0
Backcourt-10.6 · 4 players
VCUBig
Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.2 · 1 player
VCUBig
Frontcourt+5.5 · 2 players
Bench-2.0 · 2 players
VCUBig
Bench+3.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCCSU betterVCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
C Connecticut
Guards
J. Jones30 minV. Payne24 minE. Parker14 minR. Jones10 minA. Reynolds10 minR. LaurentNew
Forwards
D. James13 minJ. Mott8 minB. JacksonNewJ. ErvinNewR. TibbyNewC. LangdonNew
VCU
Guards
N. Ralph-Beyer31 min · TRB. Jennings25 minN. Lewis24 minB. Harper18 min · TRT. Ward14 minA. Nowell11 min
Forwards
T. Alston30 min · TRL. Djokovic28 minM. Belle22 minJ. Wyche7 min · TRC. RossNewS. PlisnicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CCSUVCU
Scoring
70.6 #272Points per game80.8 #50
1.08 #192Points per possession1.16 #47
65.5 #329Pace (possessions)69.5 #147
Shooting
51.6 #165Effective FG%53.6 #78
35.8 #693-point %36.3 #46
34.9 #2783-point attempt rate43.8 #91
31.2 #276Free throw rate42.0 #30
Possessions
16.3 #154Turnover rate15.1 #70
27.5 #281Offensive rebound rate31.6 #139
12.8 #229Assists per game13.9 #158
Defense
72.0 #105Points allowed71.8 #100
1.10 #218Points allowed per possession1.04 #66
50.2 #113Opponent effective FG%49.0 #69
33.4 #146Opponent 3-point %33.0 #125
14.0 #338Turnovers forced17.0 #151
69.6 #179Defensive rebound rate70.0 #162
5.4 #311Steals per game7.3 #99
3.9 #83Blocks per game4.3 #50
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

C Connecticut

16-12 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wagner60–70
  • Wvs Saint Francis Red Wolves69–64
  • Wvs Mercyhurst80–78
  • L@ Chicago St51–70
  • Wvs Le Moyne78–77

A week or more of rest.

VCU

28-8 in 2025-26 overall · 18-3 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois55–76
  • Wvs North Carolina82–78
  • Wvs Dayton70–62
  • Wvs Saint Joseph's77–64
  • Wvs Duquesne71–66

A week or more of rest.