Swinney Center · at Kansas City · Conference game
Closing line
NDSU -9.5✓ NDSU covered by 14.5
NDSU -9.5✓ NDSU covered by 14.5Closing total144.5Over by 25.5
| NDSU | This season | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 9-5 | Record | 1-12 |
| 8-6 | ATS | 5-8 |
| 8-6 | O/U | 6-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NDSU 77–70 KC · ✓ NDSU (75%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NDSU | 54 | 43 | 97 |
| KC | 34 | 39 | 73 |
1st half: NDSU 54, KC 34 (NDSU by 20). The model had NDSU by 4.7 and a total of 68.7 (actual 88).
Team stats
| NDSU | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| 35-66 53% | Field goals | 27-55 49% |
| 13-29 45% | 3-pointers | 8-22 36% |
| 14-19 74% | Free throws | 11-17 65% |
| 35 15 off | Rebounds | 31 12 off |
| 19 | Assists | 17 |
| 13 | Steals | 4 |
| 4 | Blocks | 1 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 17 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 20 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| NDSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Stefonowicz G | 27 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 1-5 | 0-3 |
| Damari Wheeler-Thomas G | 26 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 6-15 | 4-9 |
| Trevian Carson G | 26 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 7-8 | 2-3 |
| Markhi Strickland G | 22 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Treyson Anderson F | 20 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 8-12 | 2-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tay Smith G | 26 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 4-8 | 2-6 |
| Noah Feddersen C | 20 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 4-5 | 2-3 |
| Emil Skytt G | 14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Riley Massey G | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Max Majerle G | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Carson Smith G | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Riley Saunders, Dom Clay, Caleb Schoenrock
| KC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karmello Branch G | 35 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 7-15 | 5-11 |
| Jerome Palm F | 29 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| CJ Evans G | 27 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 6-10 | 0-1 |
| Jayson Petty G | 22 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Chris Dockery F | 18 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kasheem Grady II G | 24 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 5-9 | 2-5 |
| Trey Booker-Lowery G | 15 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2-7 | 1-3 |
| Jamaria Clark G | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Addarin Scott F | 12 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Baba Mbengue C | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cory Curtis Jr., D'Andre Harrison, Jason Hilliard, Kernan Bundy, Max Sims
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketNDSU -9.5
ModelNDSU -7.7
Model edgeKC +1.8
L NDSU covered
Total
Market144.5
Model146.6
Model edgeOver 2.1
W Over
Projected score
NDSU 77.2 · KC 69.5
NDSU 97 · KC 73
Win probability
NDSU 75%
1st half
Spread
NDSU -4.7
NDSU -20.0
Total
68.7
88 points
Projected score
NDSU 36.7 · KC 32
NDSU 54 · KC 34
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNDSU -10.5
1 → KC
CloseNDSU -9.5
1 pt toward KC
Total
Open142.5
▲ 2
Close144.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
NDSU -520 · KC +390
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NDSU -10.5 · closed NDSU -9.5 · moved 1 toward KCmodel NDSU -7.5
model NDSU -7.5
Opened 142.5 · closed 144.5 · moved 2 upmodel 146.5
model 146.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NDSU | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| KC | 1-9 10% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
NDSU 5–3 KCNDSU leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · NDSU has won the last 5 meetings · NDSU 3-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2024-25 | NDSU 78 @ KC 72 | KC +1.5 | NDSU W |
| Jan 16, 2024-25 | KC 64 @ NDSU 71 | NDSU -8.5 | KC W |
| Feb 8, 2023-24 | KC 78 @ NDSU 82 | NDSU -4.5 | KC W |
| Jan 11, 2023-24 | NDSU 92 @ KC 91 | KC -2.5 | NDSU W |
| Feb 16, 2022-23 | NDSU 69 @ KC 58 | KC +1.5 | NDSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
N Dakota St
14 games played
Straight up
9-5
64% wins
Against the spread
8-6
57% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-6
57% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ ORST | L 65-67 | +9.5 | W +7.5 | 144.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 5 | @ UCD | L 68-80 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 142.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 11 | vs CSUN | W 90-68 | -4.5 | W +17.5 | 156.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 17 | vs SIU | W 92-85 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 153.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 26 | vs JXST | W 56-43 | -3.5 | W +9.5 | 142.5 | U 99 |
| Nov 28 | @ ARST | L 80-85 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 160.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 3 | @ MONT | W 81-72 | +3.5 | W +12.5 | 153.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 6 | vs NAU | W 69-68 | -12.5 | L −11.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 11 | @ CSUB | W 80-69 | -7.5 | W +3.5 | 149.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 13 | @ DRKE | W 99-94 | +5.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | O 193 |
| Dec 21 | vs UCI | L 73-74 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 22 | @ UTEP | L 66-76 | -2.5 | L −12.5 | 139.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 31 | vs SDAK | W 84-61 | -11.5 | W +11.5 | 164.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | vs ORU | W 79-77 | -13.5 | L −11.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@ORST
ORSTL 65-67
+7.5
5
@UCD
UCDL 68-80
−10.5
11
vsCSUN
CSUNW 90-68
+17.5
17
vsSIU
SIUW 92-85
+5.5
26
vsJXST
JXSTW 56-43
+9.5
28
@ARST
ARSTL 80-85
−1.5
3
@MONT
MONTW 81-72
+12.5
6
vsNAU
NAUW 69-68
−11.5
11
@CSUB
CSUBW 80-69
+3.5
13
@DRKE
DRKEW 99-94
+10.5
21
vsUCI
UCIL 73-74
−2.5
22
@UTEP
UTEPL 66-76
−12.5
31
vsSDAK
SDAKW 84-61
+11.5
3
vsORU
ORUW 79-77
−11.5
covered 8didn’t cover 6avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@ORST
ORSTL 65-67
−12.5
5
@UCD
UCDL 68-80
+5.5
11
vsCSUN
CSUNW 90-68
+1.5
17
vsSIU
SIUW 92-85
+23.5
26
vsJXST
JXSTW 56-43
−43.5
28
@ARST
ARSTL 80-85
+4.5
3
@MONT
MONTW 81-72
−0.5
6
vsNAU
NAUW 69-68
−10.5
11
@CSUB
CSUBW 80-69
−0.5
13
@DRKE
DRKEW 99-94
+47.5
21
vsUCI
UCIL 73-74
+0.5
22
@UTEP
UTEPL 66-76
+2.5
31
vsSDAK
SDAKW 84-61
−19.5
3
vsORU
ORUW 79-77
+9.5
over 8under 6avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Kansas City
13 games played
Straight up
1-12
8% wins
Against the spread
5-8
38% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-7
46% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | @SIU | L 78-101 | +12.5 | L −10.5 | 141.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 11 | vs IONA | L 91-105 | +4.5 | L −9.5 | 156.5 | O 196 |
| Nov 15 | @ TEX | L 55-71 | +31.5 | W +15.5 | 159.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 19 | @ TCU | L 45-81 | +23.5 | L −12.5 | 150.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 24 | @ LIN | L 67-80 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 152.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 29 | @ WEB | L 61-82 | +10.5 | L −10.5 | 155.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 3 | vs IDST | L 59-68 | +5.5 | L −3.5 | 137.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 6 | @ EWU | L 66-90 | +9.5 | L −14.5 | 151.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 10 | vsWEB | L 60-64 | +7.5 | W +3.5 | 150.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 16 | @ OU | L 67-89 | +30.5 | W +8.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 18 | @ OKST | L 79-91 | +27.5 | W +15.5 | 161.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 31 | @ DEN | L 74-87 | +9.5 | L −3.5 | 156.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 3 | @ OMA | W 73-66 | +8.5 | W +15.5 | 148.5 | U 139 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
@SIU
SIUL 78-101
−10.5
11
vsIONA
IONAL 91-105
−9.5
15
@TEX
TEXL 55-71
+15.5
19
@TCU
TCUL 45-81
−12.5
24
@LIN
LINL 67-80
−8.5
29
@WEB
WEBL 61-82
−10.5
3
vsIDST
IDSTL 59-68
−3.5
6
@EWU
EWUL 66-90
−14.5
10
vsWEB
WEBL 60-64
+3.5
16
@OU
OUL 67-89
+8.5
18
@OKST
OKSTL 79-91
+15.5
31
@DEN
DENL 74-87
−3.5
3
@OMA
OMAW 73-66
+15.5
covered 5didn’t cover 8avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
@SIU
SIUL 78-101
+37.5
11
vsIONA
IONAL 91-105
+39.5
15
@TEX
TEXL 55-71
−33.5
19
@TCU
TCUL 45-81
−24.5
24
@LIN
LINL 67-80
−5.5
29
@WEB
WEBL 61-82
−12.5
3
vsIDST
IDSTL 59-68
−10.5
6
@EWU
EWUL 66-90
+4.5
10
vsWEB
WEBL 60-64
−26.5
16
@OU
OUL 67-89
+2.5
18
@OKST
OKSTL 79-91
+8.5
31
@DEN
DENL 74-87
+4.5
3
@OMA
OMAW 73-66
−9.5
over 6under 7avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
N Dakota St
9-5 overall · 2-0 in conference · Summit League
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Oral Roberts79–77
- Wvs South Dakota84–61
- L@ UTEP66–76
- Lvs UC Irvine73–74
- W@ Drake99–94
5 days since their last game.
Kansas City
1-12 overall · 1-1 in conference · Summit League
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Omaha73–66
- L@ Denver74–87
- L@ Oklahoma St79–91
- L@ Oklahoma67–89
- Lvs Weber St60–64
5 days since their last game.