North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Omaha Mavericks: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 8, 8:00 PM ETBaxter Arena · at Omaha · Conference game

Final

#279OMAOmaha90▲ winner

Closing lineOMA -5.5✓ OMA covered by 5.5

Closing total146.5Over by 22.5

Season records: North Dakota and Omaha
UND	This season	OMA
5-10	Record	3-10
9-6	ATS	3-10
5-10	O/U	7-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UND 73–79 OMA · ✓ OMA (68%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UND	38	41	79
OMA	47	43	90

1st half: UND 38, OMA 47 (OMA by 9). The model had OMA by 3.1 and a total of 71.2 (actual 85).

Team stats

UND		OMA
24-60 40%	Field goals	27-45 60%
10-31 32%	3-pointers	8-17 47%
21-30 70%	Free throws	28-35 80%
26 13 off	Rebounds	35 6 off
9	Assists	14
8	Steals	3
3	Blocks	3
7	Turnovers	13
26	Fouls	21
28	Points in paint	36
4	Fast-break points	10

Players

UND	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Eli King G	36	21	4	1	8-13	1-4
Garrett Anderson G	26	15	2	1	3-9	2-6
Greyson Uelmen G	25	19	3	2	5-9	3-4
Zach Kraft G	23	0	3	0	0-4	0-4
Josh Jones C	12	0	2	1	0-1	0-0
Bench
George Natsvlishvili F	22	10	6	1	3-4	0-0
Marley Curtis F	15	6	1	0	2-6	2-5
Anthony Smith III G	14	5	0	2	2-8	1-3
Wylee Delorme G	13	3	0	0	1-4	1-3
Reggie Thomas G	9	0	2	1	0-2	0-2
Matthew Bothun F	5	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ryan Erikson, Micah Curtis, Karson Ouse, Anthony Doppler

OMA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tony Osburn G	38	27	1	0	8-12	5-8
Paul Djobet F	33	18	12	2	6-10	2-4
Lance Waddles G	30	9	2	1	3-7	0-3
Christian Richardson C	15	9	1	0	4-4	0-0
Grant Stubblefield G	13	4	2	1	0-2	0-0
Bench
Ja'Sean Glover G	30	10	6	5	2-4	0-1
Brock Scholl F	18	6	2	3	1-3	0-0
Valentino Simon F	13	2	1	2	1-1	0-0
Khamani Cooper G	10	5	1	0	2-2	1-1

Did not play: Julian Margrave, Benji Nelson, Deng Mayar, Isaac Ondekane, Kamryn Thomas, Aidan Skradis, Rob Matos

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	OMA -5.5	OMA -5.4	UND +0.1	L OMA covered
Total	146.5	151.9	Over 5.4	W Over
Projected score	—	UND 73.3 · OMA 78.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OMA -3.1	OMA -9.0
1H total	71.2	85
1H projected score	UND 34 · OMA 37.1	UND 38 · OMA 47

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UND LWWWW	9-6	60%	5-2	7-4
OMA WWLLL	3-10	23%	0-3	0-2

Venue/role: UND away, as underdog; OMA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UND UOUUO	5-10	33%	5-10
OMA UOUOU	7-6	54%	3-10

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UND	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
OMA	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

UND 3–6 OMAOMA leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · OMA has won the last 3 meetings · UND 3-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 6, 2024-25	UND 77 @ OMA 80	OMA -4.5	UND W
Jan 2, 2024-25	OMA 95 @ UND 85	UND -4.5	OMA W
Mar 10, 2023-24	OMA 73 vs UND 72	UND -2.5	OMA W
Feb 8, 2023-24	OMA 78 @ UND 99	UND -3.5	UND W
Jan 11, 2023-24	UND 61 @ OMA 79	OMA -2.5	OMA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

North Dakota

15 games played

Straight up

5-10

33% wins

Against the spread

9-6

60% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-10

33% overs · avg −2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-1033%

L L L W L L W L L L L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-660%

W L L W W L W L L W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-1033%

U U O O U U O U U U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ALA	L 62-91	+36.5	W +7.5	170.5	U 153
Nov 6	vsUCR	L 70-74	-1.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 9	vsCSUN	L 85-93	+6.5	L −1.5	158.5	O 178
Nov 15	@UCR	W 76-74	+3.5	W +5.5	148.5	O 150
Nov 19	@CREI	L 60-75	+29.5	W +14.5	155.5	U 135
Nov 22	vsCCU	L 58-75	+3.5	L −13.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 23	@WIU	W 78-69	-2.5	W +6.5	146.5	O 147
Nov 28	@HAW	L 55-92	+18.5	L −18.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 3	@IDHO	L 58-90	+11.5	L −20.5	151.5	U 148
Dec 6	vsMONT	L 75-79	+5.5	W +1.5	154.5	U 154
Dec 13	vsWIU	L 66-69	-7.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 135
Dec 18	vsWIN	W 90-88	+12.5	W +14.5	157.5	O 178
Dec 21	@NEB	L 55-78	+29.5	W +6.5	151.5	U 133
Jan 1	vsORU	W 72-61	-1.5	W +9.5	148.5	U 133
Jan 3	vsSDST	W 90-87	+7.5	W +10.5	152.5	O 177

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ALA

L 62-91

+7.5

UCR

L 70-74

−5.5

CSUN

L 85-93

−1.5

UCR

W 76-74

+5.5

CREI

L 60-75

+14.5

CCU

L 58-75

−13.5

WIU

W 78-69

+6.5

HAW

L 55-92

−18.5

IDHO

L 58-90

−20.5

MONT

L 75-79

+1.5

WIU

L 66-69

−10.5

WIN

W 90-88

+14.5

NEB

L 55-78

+6.5

ORU

W 72-61

+9.5

SDST

W 90-87

+10.5

covered 9didn’t cover 6avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ALA

L 62-91

−17.5

UCR

L 70-74

−2.5

CSUN

L 85-93

+19.5

UCR

W 76-74

+1.5

CREI

L 60-75

−20.5

CCU

L 58-75

−14.5

WIU

W 78-69

+0.5

HAW

L 55-92

−2.5

IDHO

L 58-90

−3.5

MONT

L 75-79

−0.5

WIU

L 66-69

−10.5

WIN

W 90-88

+20.5

NEB

L 55-78

−18.5

ORU

W 72-61

−15.5

SDST

W 90-87

+24.5

over 5under 10avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Omaha

13 games played

Straight up

3-10

23% wins

Against the spread

3-10

23% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-6

54% overs · avg −0 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-1023%

L L L W L L L L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-1023%

L W L L L L L L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-654%

O U O O O O U U U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMUR	L 77-85	+5.5	L −2.5	153.5	O 162
Nov 6	@ACU	L 71-73	+4.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 144
Nov 9	@CSU	L 74-97	+14.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 171
Nov 15	vsSUU	W 90-85	-8.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 175
Nov 21	@LSU	L 73-99	+20.5	L −5.5	163.5	O 172
Nov 25	vsJMU	L 77-88	+1.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 165
Nov 26	@FIU	L 61-74	+4.5	L −8.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 3	vsUNCO	L 70-75	+3.5	L −1.5	157.5	U 145
Dec 6	@PRST	W 60-55	+12.5	W +17.5	144.5	U 115
Dec 20	@LAM	W 85-82	+5.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 167
Dec 28	@ORE	L 57-80	+21.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 137
Jan 1	@SDST	L 69-84	+9.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 153
Jan 3	vsKC	L 66-73	-8.5	L −15.5	148.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MUR

L 77-85

−2.5

ACU

L 71-73

+2.5

CSU

L 74-97

−8.5

SUU

W 90-85

−3.5

LSU

L 73-99

−5.5

JMU

L 77-88

−9.5

FIU

L 61-74

−8.5

UNCO

L 70-75

−1.5

PRST

W 60-55

+17.5

LAM

W 85-82

+8.5

ORE

L 57-80

−1.5

SDST

L 69-84

−5.5

L 66-73

−15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 10avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MUR

L 77-85

+8.5

ACU

L 71-73

−6.5

CSU

L 74-97

+17.5

SUU

W 90-85

+21.5

LSU

L 73-99

+8.5

JMU

L 77-88

+12.5

FIU

L 61-74

−22.5

UNCO

L 70-75

−12.5

PRST

W 60-55

−29.5

LAM

W 85-82

+25.5

ORE

L 57-80

−14.5

SDST

L 69-84

+0.5

L 66-73

−9.5

over 7under 6avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Omaha Mavericks

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

North Dakota

Omaha

North Dakota

Omaha