South Dakota State Jackrabbits at North Dakota Fighting Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 3, 2:00 PM ETBetty Engelstad Sioux Center · at North Dakota · Conference game

Final

#336UNDNorth Dakota90▲ winner

Closing lineSDST -7.5✓ UND covered by 10.5

Closing total152.5Over by 24.5

Season records: S Dakota St and North Dakota
SDST	This season	UND
5-8	Record	4-10
7-6	ATS	8-6
7-6	O/U	4-10

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SDST 79–72 UND · ✗ SDST (71%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
SDST	45	34	8	87
UND	50	29	11	90

1st half: SDST 45, UND 50 (UND by 5). The model had SDST by 4.0 and a total of 70.7 (actual 95).

Team stats

SDST		UND
29-60 48%	Field goals	31-67 46%
11-26 42%	3-pointers	12-35 34%
18-23 78%	Free throws	16-18 89%
32 13 off	Rebounds	38 17 off
15	Assists	16
6	Steals	10
1	Blocks	3
13	Turnovers	10
17	Fouls	19
36	Points in paint	34
6	Fast-break points	5

Players

SDST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jaden Jackson G	44	22	6	1	8-14	5-9
Joe Sayler G	40	27	5	2	9-19	5-9
Kalen Garry G	39	10	3	5	3-11	1-6
Matthew Mors F	34	7	4	2	2-6	0-2
Damon Wilkinson F	33	11	8	1	3-6	0-0
Bench
Alec Squires C	12	7	0	1	3-3	0-0
Bubz Alvarez G	9	3	1	2	1-1	0-0
Caleb Delzell F	6	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Jaden Rogers G	5	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Luke Haertle G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jadyn Cascio Jensen, Andrell Burton Jr., Davis Kern, Trey Buchanan

UND	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Zach Kraft G	33	14	3	0	4-9	4-9
Garrett Anderson G	32	6	5	1	2-8	2-6
Eli King G	31	12	3	4	4-13	2-6
Greyson Uelmen G	29	17	4	3	4-10	1-7
Josh Jones C	15	2	3	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
George Natsvlishvili F	28	9	5	1	4-6	1-1
Anthony Smith III G	20	16	4	5	6-10	1-3
Wylee Delorme G	16	12	6	1	5-6	1-1
Marley Curtis F	10	0	2	0	0-2	0-2
Reggie Thomas G	10	2	2	1	1-2	0-0
Matthew Bothun F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Karson Ouse, Anthony Doppler, Micah Curtis, Ryan Erikson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SDST -7.5	SDST -6.5	UND +1.0	W UND covered
Total	152.5	151.0	Under 1.5	L Over
Projected score	—	SDST 78.7 · UND 72.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SDST -4.0	UND -5.0
1H total	70.7	95
1H projected score	SDST 37.4 · UND 33.4	SDST 45 · UND 50

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDST LLLWW	7-6	54%	4-2	4-3
UND WLWWW	8-6	57%	3-3	6-4

Venue/role: SDST away, as favorite; UND home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDST UOOOO	7-6	54%	5-8
UND UUOUU	4-10	29%	4-10

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
UND	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

SDST 7–2 UNDSDST leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · UND has won the last 2 meetings · SDST 5-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 7, 2024-25	UND 85 vs SDST 69	SDST -7.5	UND W
Feb 1, 2024-25	SDST 75 @ UND 80	UND +6.5	UND W
Jan 16, 2024-25	UND 73 @ SDST 109	SDST -11.5	SDST W
Feb 29, 2023-24	SDST 72 @ UND 62	UND -0.5	SDST W
Dec 31, 2023-24	UND 61 @ SDST 80	SDST -9.5	SDST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

S Dakota St

13 games played

Straight up

5-8

38% wins

Against the spread

7-6

54% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-6

54% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-838%

W L L W L L W L W L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-654%

W W W W L L W L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-654%

U U O O U U U O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMRMK	W 75-66	-6.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 9	@UNI	L 58-65	+10.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 123
Nov 12	@ORE	L 69-83	+16.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 21	vsGAST	W 105-58	-12.5	W +34.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 25	vsUVU	L 52-75	+1.5	L −21.5	151.5	U 127
Nov 26	vsUCI	L 52-64	+2.5	L −9.5	144.5	U 116
Dec 3	@NAU	W 75-62	-2.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 137
Dec 6	vsIDHO	L 81-84	-5.5	L −8.5	147.5	O 165
Dec 9	@BALL	W 68-64	-5.5	L −1.5	142.5	U 132
Dec 15	vsWYO	L 72-87	+3.5	L −11.5	149.5	O 159
Dec 19	@MILW	L 87-88	-1.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 175
Dec 29	@ARIZ	L 71-99	+31.5	W +3.5	159.5	O 170
Jan 1	vsOMA	W 84-69	-9.5	W +5.5	152.5	O 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRMK

W 75-66

+2.5

UNI

L 58-65

+3.5

ORE

L 69-83

+2.5

GAST

W 105-58

+34.5

UVU

L 52-75

−21.5

UCI

L 52-64

−9.5

NAU

W 75-62

+10.5

IDHO

L 81-84

−8.5

BALL

W 68-64

−1.5

WYO

L 72-87

−11.5

MILW

L 87-88

−2.5

ARIZ

L 71-99

+3.5

OMA

W 84-69

+5.5

covered 7didn’t cover 6avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRMK

W 75-66

−2.5

UNI

L 58-65

−27.5

ORE

L 69-83

+6.5

GAST

W 105-58

+19.5

UVU

L 52-75

−24.5

UCI

L 52-64

−28.5

NAU

W 75-62

−11.5

IDHO

L 81-84

+17.5

BALL

W 68-64

−10.5

WYO

L 72-87

+9.5

MILW

L 87-88

+23.5

ARIZ

L 71-99

+10.5

OMA

W 84-69

+0.5

over 7under 6avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

North Dakota

14 games played

Straight up

4-10

29% wins

Against the spread

8-6

57% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-10

29% overs · avg −4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-1029%

L L L W L L W L L L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

8-657%

W L L W W L W L L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-1029%

U U O O U U O U U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ALA	L 62-91	+36.5	W +7.5	170.5	U 153
Nov 6	vsUCR	L 70-74	-1.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 9	vsCSUN	L 85-93	+6.5	L −1.5	158.5	O 178
Nov 15	@UCR	W 76-74	+3.5	W +5.5	148.5	O 150
Nov 19	@CREI	L 60-75	+29.5	W +14.5	155.5	U 135
Nov 22	vsCCU	L 58-75	+3.5	L −13.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 23	@WIU	W 78-69	-2.5	W +6.5	146.5	O 147
Nov 28	@HAW	L 55-92	+18.5	L −18.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 3	@IDHO	L 58-90	+11.5	L −20.5	151.5	U 148
Dec 6	vsMONT	L 75-79	+5.5	W +1.5	154.5	U 154
Dec 13	vsWIU	L 66-69	-7.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 135
Dec 18	vsWIN	W 90-88	+12.5	W +14.5	157.5	O 178
Dec 21	@NEB	L 55-78	+29.5	W +6.5	151.5	U 133
Jan 1	vsORU	W 72-61	-1.5	W +9.5	148.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ALA

L 62-91

+7.5

UCR

L 70-74

−5.5

CSUN

L 85-93

−1.5

UCR

W 76-74

+5.5

CREI

L 60-75

+14.5

CCU

L 58-75

−13.5

WIU

W 78-69

+6.5

HAW

L 55-92

−18.5

IDHO

L 58-90

−20.5

MONT

L 75-79

+1.5

WIU

L 66-69

−10.5

WIN

W 90-88

+14.5

NEB

L 55-78

+6.5

ORU

W 72-61

+9.5

covered 8didn’t cover 6avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ALA

L 62-91

−17.5

UCR

L 70-74

−2.5

CSUN

L 85-93

+19.5

UCR

W 76-74

+1.5

CREI

L 60-75

−20.5

CCU

L 58-75

−14.5

WIU

W 78-69

+0.5

HAW

L 55-92

−2.5

IDHO

L 58-90

−3.5

MONT

L 75-79

−0.5

WIU

L 66-69

−10.5

WIN

W 90-88

+20.5

NEB

L 55-78

−18.5

ORU

W 72-61

−15.5

over 4under 10avg −4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

South Dakota State Jackrabbits at North Dakota Fighting Hawks

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

S Dakota St

North Dakota

S Dakota St

North Dakota