Western Illinois Leathernecks at North Dakota Fighting Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 13, 2:00 PM ETBetty Engelstad Sioux Center · at North Dakota

#365WIUW Illinois69▲ winner

Final

Closing lineUND -7.5✓ WIU covered by 10.5

Closing total145.5Under by 10.5

Season records: W Illinois and North Dakota
WIU	This season	UND
0-7	Record	2-8
3-4	ATS	5-5
4-3	O/U	3-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WIU 69–77 UND · ✗ UND (76%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
WIU	32	28	9	69
UND	28	32	6	66

1st half: WIU 32, UND 28 (WIU by 4). The model had UND by 4.8 and a total of 68.0 (actual 60).

Team stats

WIU		UND
23-70 33%	Field goals	21-55 38%
3-19 16%	3-pointers	6-29 21%
20-25 80%	Free throws	18-25 72%
51 25 off	Rebounds	39 12 off
9	Assists	10
9	Steals	4
5	Blocks	10
16	Turnovers	17
24	Fouls	23
34	Points in paint	30
8	Fast-break points	3

Players

WIU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Makai Kvamme G	42	4	5	4	2-12	0-0
Lucas Lorenzen G	40	14	6	1	3-13	1-9
Isaiah Griffin F	36	18	2	1	6-15	1-4
Karyiek Dixon F	35	17	18	0	6-10	0-0
Antwaun Massey F	11	5	2	2	2-5	0-0
Bench
Francis Okwuosah F	20	9	2	0	3-6	1-3
Goanar Biliew F	17	0	4	0	0-0	0-0
Danny Stephens F	12	2	2	0	1-6	0-1
Tyran Cook G	10	0	2	1	0-2	0-2
Nick Hittle F	2	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Ifiok Peter, Jack Riley, Jake Edwards, Marcus Pigram, Steven Tipton

UND	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Eli King G	41	13	5	2	3-9	2-6
Zach Kraft G	37	3	1	2	1-10	1-10
Garrett Anderson G	31	11	6	1	4-10	1-5
Greyson Uelmen G	28	13	3	2	3-7	0-1
George Natsvlishvili F	20	8	5	0	3-4	0-0
Bench
Josh Jones C	25	8	4	1	4-4	0-0
Marley Curtis F	15	5	2	0	1-5	1-4
Anthony Smith III G	13	2	5	0	1-2	0-0
Reggie Thomas G	12	3	4	2	1-3	1-2
Karson Ouse F	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Anthony Doppler, Matthew Bothun, Ryan Erikson, Micah Curtis, Wylee Delorme

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UND -7.5	UND -8.2	UND +0.7	L WIU covered
Total	145.5	145.3	Under 0.2	W Under
Projected score	—	WIU 68.5 · UND 76.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UND -4.8	WIU -4.0
1H total	68.0	60
1H projected score	WIU 31.6 · UND 36.4	WIU 32 · UND 28

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIU LWLLL	3-4	43%	3-2	3-4
UND LWLLW	5-5	50%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: WIU away, as underdog; UND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIU UUOOO	4-3	57%	0-7
UND UOUUU	3-7	30%	2-8

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIUlast 7	0-7 0%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%
UND	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

WIU 4–1 UNDWIU leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · WIU 2-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 23, 2025-26	UND 78 @ WIU 69	WIU +2.5	UND W
Feb 23, 2022-23	WIU 81 @ UND 70	UND -3.5	WIU W
Jan 23, 2022-23	UND 80 @ WIU 92	WIU -6.5	WIU W
Feb 12, 2021-22	UND 68 @ WIU 70	WIU -12	UND W
Jan 13, 2021-22	WIU 73 @ UND 68	UND +9	UND W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

W Illinois

7 games played

Straight up

0-7

0% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −5.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-70%

L L L L L L L

7 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

O U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@RAD	L 75-80	+16.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 155
Nov 7	@IOWA	L 58-77	+30.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 135
Nov 11	@CSUB	L 58-74	+7.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 14	@CBU	L 59-69	+15.5	W +5.5	140.5	U 128
Nov 21	vsCCU	L 64-84	+3.5	L −16.5	138.5	O 148
Nov 23	vsUND	L 69-78	+2.5	L −6.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 2	@DRKE	L 57-108	+17.5	L −33.5	138.5	O 165

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RAD

L 75-80

+11.5

IOWA

L 58-77

+11.5

CSUB

L 58-74

−8.5

CBU

L 59-69

+5.5

CCU

L 64-84

−16.5

UND

L 69-78

−6.5

DRKE

L 57-108

−33.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RAD

L 75-80

+3.5

IOWA

L 58-77

−10.5

CSUB

L 58-74

−9.5

CBU

L 59-69

−12.5

CCU

L 64-84

+9.5

UND

L 69-78

+0.5

DRKE

L 57-108

+26.5

over 4under 3avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

North Dakota

10 games played

Straight up

2-8

20% wins

Against the spread

5-5

50% covers · avg −2.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-7

30% overs · avg −4 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-820%

L L L W L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-550%

W L L W W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-730%

U U O O U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ALA	L 62-91	+36.5	W +7.5	170.5	U 153
Nov 6	vsUCR	L 70-74	-1.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 9	vsCSUN	L 85-93	+6.5	L −1.5	158.5	O 178
Nov 15	@UCR	W 76-74	+3.5	W +5.5	148.5	O 150
Nov 19	@CREI	L 60-75	+29.5	W +14.5	155.5	U 135
Nov 22	vsCCU	L 58-75	+3.5	L −13.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 23	@WIU	W 78-69	-2.5	W +6.5	146.5	O 147
Nov 28	@HAW	L 55-92	+18.5	L −18.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 3	@IDHO	L 58-90	+11.5	L −20.5	151.5	U 148
Dec 6	vsMONT	L 75-79	+5.5	W +1.5	154.5	U 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ALA

L 62-91

+7.5

UCR

L 70-74

−5.5

CSUN

L 85-93

−1.5

UCR

W 76-74

+5.5

CREI

L 60-75

+14.5

CCU

L 58-75

−13.5

WIU

W 78-69

+6.5

HAW

L 55-92

−18.5

IDHO

L 58-90

−20.5

MONT

L 75-79

+1.5

covered 5didn’t cover 5avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ALA

L 62-91

−17.5

UCR

L 70-74

−2.5

CSUN

L 85-93

+19.5

UCR

W 76-74

+1.5

CREI

L 60-75

−20.5

CCU

L 58-75

−14.5

WIU

W 78-69

+0.5

HAW

L 55-92

−2.5

IDHO

L 58-90

−3.5

MONT

L 75-79

−0.5

over 3under 7avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Western Illinois Leathernecks at North Dakota Fighting Hawks

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

W Illinois

North Dakota

W Illinois

North Dakota