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  2. Sun, Dec 13
  3. UTA @ ARK
NCAAB · Sun, Dec 13

UT Arlington Mavericks at Arkansas Razorbacks

Bud Walton Arena · at Arkansas
#258UTAUT Arlington
@
#18ARKArkansas AP #12
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UTAThis seasonARK
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ARK 93–63 · win probability ARK 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 155.5
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ARK has more of the edges

UTA 1, ARK 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
UTA has played the 268th-hardest schedule, ARK the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less
ARKBig
UTA offense vs ARK defense
Offense 289th of 366 against a defense 47th, on the model’s ratings
ARKBig
ARK offense vs UTA defense
Offense 6th of 366 against a defense 211th, on the model’s ratings
ARKBig
Three-pointers
UTA hits 29.1% and allows 26.9%; ARK hits 38.2% and allows 31.8%. Threes are 30.7% and 33.0% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: UTA plays 67.3 a game (265th fastest), ARK 73.8 (12th). Faster games mean more points
ARKSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UTA 20.7%, ARK 12.2%. Forced: UTA 18.0%, ARK 15.5%
ARKSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UTA 47.2 and allows 47.5; ARK 56.4 and allows 51.8
ARKSmall
Home court
ARK at home. This season: ARK 0-0 at home, UTA 0-0 away
UTASmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UTA 34.9%, ARK 32.0%. Defensive: UTA 69.9%, ARK 69.1%
ARKSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UTA 42.5, ARK 35.9. Allowed: UTA 40.9, ARK 31.2
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UTA 7%, ARK 19%. Transfers in: UTA 5, ARK 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ARK -30.2—
Total—155.5—
Projected score—UTA 62.7 · ARK 92.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadARK -17.8—
1H total72.7—
1H projected scoreUTA 27.4 · ARK 45.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Arkansas has the better starters

Position by position: UT Arlington 0, Arkansas 1, even 4
UT ArlingtonBetterArkansas
G M. Panoam TR0.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked
No call
G B. Richmond11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 2 ast Score 85
F T. McDaniels TR12 pts · 6.1 reb · 1 ast Score 68
ARKSmall
G J. Wilkinson TR17.4 pts · 2 reb · 1.7 ast Score 98
F M. Goodman3.2 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.1 ast Score 11
No call
G A. Brown0.1 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
F B. McGlothin TR0 pts · 0.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F C. Bowser TR13.7 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.6 ast Score 91
F N. Bundalo TR0.5 pts · 0.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F I. Sealy2.9 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
UT ArlingtonBetterArkansas
UTA offense289th of 366 · -8.9
ARKBig
ARK defense47th of 366 · +2.2
UTA defense211th of 366 · -5.4
ARKBig
ARK offense6th of 366 · +10.8
Backcourt-0.3 · 1 player
ARKBig
Backcourt+5.9 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.8 · 4 players
ARKBig
Frontcourt+3.7 · 2 players
Bench+0.0 · 1 player
Even
Bench-0.0 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestUTA betterARK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UT Arlington
Guards
M. Panoam6 min · TRN. Shelby3 min · TRJ. SmithNewT. HankinsNewK. MikalauskasNewJ. ParkerNew
Forwards
T. McDaniels27 min · TRM. Goodman13 minB. McGlothin5 min · TRN. Bundalo3 min · TRT. SimicNewS. HadnotNew
Arkansas
Guards
B. Richmond28 minJ. Wilkinson26 min · TRA. Brown2 minA. Kelley2 minJ. SmithNewD. ThompsonNew
Forwards
C. Bowser30 min · TRI. Sealy7 minP. SemedoNewM. MakerNewJ. AndrewsNewM. MuurinenNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UTAARK
Scoring
67.7 #320Points per game90.2 #2
1.01 #319Points per possession1.23 #3
67.3 #265Pace (possessions)73.8 #12
Shooting
47.2 #332Effective FG%56.4 #16
29.1 #3523-point %38.2 #16
30.7 #3453-point attempt rate33.0 #315
42.5 #24Free throw rate35.9 #155
Possessions
20.7 #354Turnover rate12.2 #1
34.9 #50Offensive rebound rate32.0 #121
10.7 #345Assists per game17.2 #20
Defense
67.8 #29Points allowed81.0 #333
1.01 #30Points allowed per possession1.09 #213
47.5 #29Opponent effective FG%51.8 #201
26.9 #1Opponent 3-point %31.8 #54
18.0 #93Turnovers forced15.5 #246
69.9 #166Defensive rebound rate69.1 #197
7.3 #97Steals per game7.3 #96
3.5 #148Blocks per game5.2 #12
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UT Arlington

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Utah Valley65–67
  • Wvs Southern Utah69–63
  • W@ Abilene Chrstn64–57
  • W@ Tarleton St65–60
  • L@ CA Baptist56–68

A week or more of rest.

Arkansas

28-9 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona88–109
  • Wvs High Point94–88
  • Wvs Hawai'i97–78
  • Wvs Vanderbilt86–75
  • Wvs Ole Miss93–90

A week or more of rest.