UT Arlington Mavericks at Oral Roberts Golden Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 22, 8:00 PM ETMabee Center · at Oral Roberts

#257UTAUT Arlington69▲ winner

Final

Closing lineUTA -3.5✓ UTA covered by 8.5

Closing total136.5Under by 10.5

Season records: UT Arlington and Oral Roberts
UTA	This season	ORU
5-4	Record	2-9
5-4	ATS	7-4
1-8	O/U	5-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UTA 74–69 ORU · ✓ UTA (64%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UTA	35	34	69
ORU	27	30	57

1st half: UTA 35, ORU 27 (UTA by 8). The model had UTA by 2.6 and a total of 67.0 (actual 62).

Team stats

UTA		ORU
24-51 47%	Field goals	17-55 31%
8-18 44%	3-pointers	2-20 10%
13-20 65%	Free throws	21-25 84%
35 9 off	Rebounds	34 12 off
14	Assists	7
11	Steals	11
2	Blocks	1
14	Turnovers	14
17	Fouls	16
28	Points in paint	24
8	Fast-break points	12

Players

UTA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Raysean Seamster F	33	6	9	4	3-7	0-2
Marcell McCreary G	32	16	3	1	6-11	4-7
Marcus Rigsby Jr. G	29	7	2	3	3-7	1-3
Cameron Jackson F	26	6	8	2	3-4	0-0
Cash Chavis G	25	13	6	3	3-10	1-3
Bench
Bahsil Laster G	24	10	1	0	3-6	1-1
Jordan Lowery G	12	4	0	1	1-3	1-2
Miles Goodman F	9	7	1	0	2-2	0-0
Tyran Mason G	7	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Amari Reed F	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Stoney Hadnot, Alex Bossinakis, Jayden Smoot, Augustine Youssef

ORU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ty Harper G	34	18	4	2	5-17	1-3
Connor Dow G	32	5	4	1	2-9	0-5
Ofri Naveh F	27	10	8	2	2-6	0-2
Yuto Yamanouchi-Williams F	21	10	3	0	3-7	0-1
Jack Turner G	20	2	1	0	1-5	0-2
Bench
Cal Furnish G	25	4	2	1	2-3	0-1
Martins Kilups G	17	0	0	1	0-1	0-1
Baron Smith Jr. C	12	3	5	0	1-2	0-0
Luke Gray F	12	5	2	0	1-5	1-5

Did not play: Laymen McGrady, Alex Couto, Aaron Jacob, Lane Sparks, Chase Martin

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UTA -3.5	UTA -4.2	UTA +0.7	W UTA covered
Total	136.5	143.0	Over 6.5	L Under
Projected score	—	UTA 73.6 · ORU 69.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UTA -2.6	UTA -8.0
1H total	67.0	62
1H projected score	UTA 34.8 · ORU 32.2	UTA 35 · ORU 27

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTA WWLWL	5-4	56%	3-3	2-0
ORU LLWWW	7-4	64%	2-1	7-4

Venue/role: UTA away, as favorite; ORU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTA UUUUU	1-8	11%	5-4
ORU UOUUU	5-6	45%	2-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAlast 9	5-4 56%	5-4 56%	1-8 11%
ORU	2-8 20%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UTA 1–1 ORUSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · UTA 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 6, 2023-24	ORU 71 @ UTA 75	UTA -1.5	UTA W
Dec 16, 2021-22	UTA 62 @ ORU 71	ORU -6.5	ORU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UT Arlington

9 games played

Straight up

5-4

56% wins

Against the spread

5-4

56% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-8

11% overs · avg −10.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-456%

L W W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-456%

L W W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-811%

U U O U U U U U U

6 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@UNM	L 56-74	+13.5	L −4.5	145.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsMOST	W 67-49	-3.5	W +14.5	143.5	U 116
Nov 18	@EVAN	W 84-76	+2.5	W +10.5	138.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsCAM	L 67-71	+1.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 22	@WEB	W 74-73	+2.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 147
Nov 29	vsSFA	W 66-61	-1.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 127
Dec 2	@ARST	L 63-83	+5.5	L −14.5	151.5	U 146
Dec 11	@RGV	W 58-50	+4.5	W +12.5	145.5	U 108
Dec 17	@STAN	L 60-76	+10.5	L −5.5	139.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNM

L 56-74

−4.5

MOST

W 67-49

+14.5

EVAN

W 84-76

+10.5

CAM

L 67-71

−2.5

WEB

W 74-73

+3.5

SFA

W 66-61

+3.5

ARST

L 63-83

−14.5

RGV

W 58-50

+12.5

STAN

L 60-76

−5.5

covered 5didn’t cover 4avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNM

L 56-74

−15.5

MOST

W 67-49

−27.5

EVAN

W 84-76

+21.5

CAM

L 67-71

−13.5

WEB

W 74-73

−2.5

SFA

W 66-61

−11.5

ARST

L 63-83

−5.5

RGV

W 58-50

−37.5

STAN

L 60-76

−3.5

over 1under 8avg −10.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oral Roberts

11 games played

Straight up

2-9

18% wins

Against the spread

7-4

64% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-6

45% overs · avg −3.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-918%

L L L L L W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-464%

L W L W W W L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-645%

O O U U O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@OKST	L 71-95	+20.5	L −3.5	165.5	O 166
Nov 12	vsTLSA	L 87-88	+5.5	W +4.5	160.5	O 175
Nov 15	vsBEL	L 60-83	+7.5	L −15.5	171.5	U 143
Nov 20	@OU	L 71-95	+24.5	W +0.5	166.5	U 166
Nov 24	@FGCU	L 88-93	+11.5	W +6.5	153.5	O 181
Nov 25	vsKENN	W 91-83	+8.5	W +16.5	166.5	O 174
Nov 26	vsRICE	L 62-81	+5.5	L −13.5	150.5	U 143
Dec 3	@WEB	L 66-92	+7.5	L −18.5	157.5	O 158
Dec 6	vsMTST	W 72-68	+6.5	W +10.5	150.5	U 140
Dec 16	@MOST	L 62-63	+4.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 125
Dec 18	@TCU	L 53-72	+23.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKST

L 71-95

−3.5

TLSA

L 87-88

+4.5

BEL

L 60-83

−15.5

L 71-95

+0.5

FGCU

L 88-93

+6.5

KENN

W 91-83

+16.5

RICE

L 62-81

−13.5

WEB

L 66-92

−18.5

MTST

W 72-68

+10.5

MOST

L 62-63

+3.5

TCU

L 53-72

+4.5

covered 7didn’t cover 4avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKST

L 71-95

+0.5

TLSA

L 87-88

+14.5

BEL

L 60-83

−28.5

L 71-95

−0.5

FGCU

L 88-93

+27.5

KENN

W 91-83

+7.5

RICE

L 62-81

−7.5

WEB

L 66-92

+0.5

MTST

W 72-68

−10.5

MOST

L 62-63

−21.5

TCU

L 53-72

−22.5

over 5under 6avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UT Arlington Mavericks at Oral Roberts Golden Eagles

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UT Arlington

Oral Roberts

UT Arlington

Oral Roberts