1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. MTSU @ BEL
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Belmont Bruins

Curb Event Center Arena · at Belmont
#154MTSUMTSU
@
#138BELBelmont
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MTSUThis seasonBEL
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BEL 79–73 · win probability BEL 70%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 152.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BEL has more of the edges

MTSU 1, BEL 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BELBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MTSU 51.6 and allows 51.0; BEL 61.0 and allows 49.9
BELSmall
Three-pointers
MTSU hits 33.8% and allows 34.0%; BEL hits 41.0% and allows 34.2%. Threes are 45.3% and 45.7% of their shots
BELSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MTSU 32.7, BEL 32.5. Allowed: MTSU 35.7, BEL 30.7
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: MTSU plays 68.3 a game (216th fastest), BEL 70.5 (94th). Faster games mean more points
BELSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MTSU 17.1%, BEL 18.0%. Forced: MTSU 14.9%, BEL 17.4%
MTSUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MTSU 30.7%, BEL 28.8%. Defensive: MTSU 71.5%, BEL 70.8%
BELSmall
Home court
BEL at home. This season: BEL 0-0 at home, MTSU 0-0 away
BELSmall
BEL offense vs MTSU defense
Offense 118th of 366 against a defense 167th, on the model’s ratings
Even
MTSU offense vs BEL defense
Offense 158th of 366 against a defense 192nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MTSU 30%, BEL 41%. Transfers in: MTSU 3, BEL 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
MTSU has played the 132nd-hardest schedule, BEL the 146th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BEL -6.2—
Total—152.0—
Projected score—MTSU 72.9 · BEL 79.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBEL -3.5—
1H total71.0—
1H projected scoreMTSU 33.8 · BEL 37.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Belmont has the better starters

Position by position: MTSU 1, Belmont 2, even 2
MTSUBetterBelmont
G K. de Kovachich TR11.6 pts · 2.2 reb · 2 ast Score 40
Even
G J. Jenkins8.8 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 42
G J. Carter10.3 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 63
BELSmall
G J. Smiley8.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.6 ast Score 81
G E. Rice TR6.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.2 ast Score 43
MTSUBig
G I. West2.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 7
F O. Naveh TR11 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 52
Even
F K. Fish TR7.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 47
C L. Jovanovic2.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.4 ast Score 26
BELBig
F E. Dillon7.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 76
MTSUBetterBelmont
MTSU offense158th of 366 · -4.7
Even
BEL defense192nd of 366 · -4.5
MTSU defense167th of 366 · -3.7
Even
BEL offense118th of 366 · -2.7
Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-2.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.1 · 2 players
BELSmall
Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players
Bench-0.1 · 2 players
Even
Bench-0.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMTSU betterBEL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
MTSU
Guards
K. de Kovachich31 min · TRJ. Carter27 minE. Rice20 min · TRM. Whitlock11 minQ. BarnettNewJ. HowardNew
Forwards
O. Naveh29 min · TRJ. Hall7 minA. BoldenNew
Centers
L. Jovanovic14 minK. SilerNew
Belmont
Guards
J. Jenkins24 minJ. Smiley17 minI. West17 minM. Zobrist5 min · TRC. Haynes5 minA. Ristic3 min · TR
Forwards
K. Fish19 min · TRE. Dillon16 minG. Lemke2 minC. KnowlesNewC. GersmehlNew
Centers
V. Neugebauer8 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MTSUBEL
Scoring
73.5 #216Points per game83.5 #23
1.08 #195Points per possession1.18 #33
68.3 #216Pace (possessions)70.5 #94
Shooting
51.6 #167Effective FG%61.0 #1
33.8 #1833-point %41.0 #1
45.3 #613-point attempt rate45.7 #51
32.7 #245Free throw rate32.5 #248
Possessions
17.1 #214Turnover rate18.0 #272
30.7 #171Offensive rebound rate28.8 #241
13.7 #168Assists per game18.5 #6
Defense
74.6 #180Points allowed74.1 #158
1.09 #205Points allowed per possession1.05 #95
51.0 #155Opponent effective FG%49.9 #93
34.0 #180Opponent 3-point %34.2 #197
14.9 #293Turnovers forced17.4 #126
71.5 #83Defensive rebound rate70.8 #118
5.8 #265Steals per game6.0 #241
4.0 #76Blocks per game3.5 #151
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

MTSU

14-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Louisiana Tech69–80
  • W@ Missouri St75–63
  • W@ FIU73–67
  • Wvs New Mexico St86–85
  • Wvs UTEP77–67

A week or more of rest.

Belmont

25-6 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Drake79–100
  • L@ Illinois St74–81
  • Wvs Evansville98–64
  • Wvs Indiana St87–70
  • W@ Murray St87–70

A week or more of rest.