1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. SCU @ GCU
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

Santa Clara Broncos at Grand Canyon Lopes

Global Credit Union Arena · at Grand Canyon
#106SCUSanta Clara
@
#80GCUGrand Canyon
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SCUThis seasonGCU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GCU 80–74 · win probability GCU 69%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GCU has more of the edges

SCU 2, GCU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
GCUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: SCU 25.5, GCU 39.5. Allowed: SCU 38.2, GCU 39.0
SCUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SCU 15.3%, GCU 17.6%. Forced: SCU 20.1%, GCU 17.4%
GCUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SCU 36.4%, GCU 31.3%. Defensive: SCU 67.9%, GCU 74.7%
GCUSmall
GCU offense vs SCU defense
Offense 83rd of 366 against a defense 137th, on the model’s ratings
GCUSmall
Home court
GCU at home. This season: GCU 0-0 at home, SCU 0-0 away
SCUSmall
Three-pointers
SCU hits 34.9% and allows 33.1%; GCU hits 31.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 45.0% and 38.9% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: SCU 54.5 and allows 52.0; GCU 51.7 and allows 47.4
Context
Schedule so far
SCU has played the 86th-hardest schedule, GCU the 107th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SCU 42%, GCU 51%. Transfers in: SCU 3, GCU 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: SCU plays 69.7 a game (135th fastest), GCU 69.3 (166th). Faster games mean more points
Even
SCU offense vs GCU defense
Offense 93rd of 366 against a defense 78th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—GCU -5.7—
Total—153.2—
Projected score—SCU 73.7 · GCU 79.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadGCU -3.3—
1H total71.6—
1H projected scoreSCU 34.2 · GCU 37.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Grand Canyon has the better starters

Position by position: Santa Clara 1, Grand Canyon 4, even 0
Santa ClaraBetterGrand Canyon
G J. Ensminger6.4 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.8 ast Score 53
SCUSmall
G J. Zimmerman TR15.2 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 32
G D. Castillo TR10.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 41
GCUSmall
G M. Tucker TR13 pts · 2.1 reb · 3 ast Score 56
G S. Gavalyugov9 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 61
GCUBig
G J. Henley17.7 pts · 5.7 reb · 2.9 ast Score 97
G T. Darlan5.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 35
GCUBig
G M. Williams14 pts · 2.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 89
G F. Zugic TR5.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 56
GCUSmall
F B. Barkley TR14.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 89
Santa ClaraBetterGrand Canyon
SCU offense93rd of 366 · -0.4
Even
GCU defense78th of 366 · +0.5
SCU defense137th of 366 · -2.8
GCUSmall
GCU offense83rd of 366 · +0.4
Backcourt-2.9 · 5 players
GCUBig
Backcourt+4.6 · 4 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+3.0 · 1 player
Bench-0.2 · 3 players
GCUSmall
Bench+2.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSCU betterGCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Santa Clara
Guards
J. Ensminger29 minD. Castillo28 min · TRS. Gavalyugov20 minT. Darlan18 minF. Zugic16 min · TRK. Cochran12 min
Forwards
C. TadjoNewN. BadibangaNew
Centers
F. Chukwudebelu6 minS. Gueye4 min · TRA. EnsorNew
Grand Canyon
Guards
J. Zimmerman33 min · TRM. Tucker32 min · TRJ. Henley32 minM. Williams27 minT. Holloman26 min · TRD. Skillings25 min · TR
Forwards
B. Barkley29 min · TRT. Behrend22 min · TRA. Dickerson22 min · TRO. Biliew20 min · TRJ. SawyerNewJ. WhortonNew
Centers
E. Demirel23 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SCUGCU
Scoring
82.9 #30Points per game75.6 #153
1.18 #37Points per possession1.09 #158
69.7 #135Pace (possessions)69.3 #166
Shooting
54.5 #53Effective FG%51.7 #162
34.9 #1253-point %31.8 #286
45.0 #673-point attempt rate38.9 #192
25.5 #363Free throw rate39.5 #67
Possessions
15.3 #86Turnover rate17.6 #245
36.4 #20Offensive rebound rate31.3 #150
16.6 #33Assists per game12.8 #230
Defense
73.5 #141Points allowed68.7 #42
1.06 #117Points allowed per possession0.99 #22
52.0 #213Opponent effective FG%47.4 #28
33.1 #127Opponent 3-point %31.9 #60
20.1 #20Turnovers forced17.4 #129
67.9 #262Defensive rebound rate74.7 #12
8.7 #14Steals per game6.6 #165
3.6 #125Blocks per game3.6 #123
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Santa Clara

25-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Kentucky84–89
  • Lvs Gonzaga68–79
  • Wvs Saint Mary's76–71
  • Wvs Pacific76–68
  • Wvs Oregon St93–72

A week or more of rest.

Grand Canyon

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nevada80–84
  • Wvs Fresno St85–60
  • W@ Air Force86–60
  • L@ Utah State69–74
  • Wvs UNLV80–67

A week or more of rest.