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  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. SCU vs MUR
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Santa Clara Broncos vs Murray State Racers

Lee's Family Forum · Neutral site
#106SCUSanta Clara
vs
#132MURMurray St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SCUThis seasonMUR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SCU 82–77 · win probability SCU 65%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 159.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SCU has more of the edges

SCU 3, MUR 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MURBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: SCU 25.5, MUR 38.6. Allowed: SCU 38.2, MUR 32.2
SCUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SCU 15.3%, MUR 16.4%. Forced: SCU 20.1%, MUR 15.7%
SCUSmall
SCU offense vs MUR defense
Offense 93rd of 366 against a defense 197th, on the model’s ratings
SCUSmall
Three-pointers
SCU hits 34.9% and allows 33.1%; MUR hits 35.0% and allows 36.2%. Threes are 45.0% and 44.8% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
SCU has played the 86th-hardest schedule, MUR the 165th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: SCU plays 69.7 a game (135th fastest), MUR 72.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points
Even
MUR offense vs SCU defense
Offense 110th of 366 against a defense 137th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SCU 42%, MUR 28%. Transfers in: SCU 3, MUR 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: SCU 54.5 and allows 52.0; MUR 53.8 and allows 52.4
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SCU 36.4%, MUR 32.6%. Defensive: SCU 67.9%, MUR 68.7%
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SCU -4.5—
Total—159.3—
Projected score—SCU 81.9 · MUR 77.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSCU -2.8—
1H total74.4—
1H projected scoreSCU 38.6 · MUR 35.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Murray St has the better starters

Position by position: Santa Clara 1, Murray St 2, even 2
Santa ClaraBetterMurray St
G J. Ensminger6.4 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.8 ast Score 53
Even
G C. Jones TR10 pts · 3 reb · 3.1 ast Score 61
G D. Castillo TR10.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 41
MURBig
G R. Domon14.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 95
G S. Gavalyugov9 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 61
SCUSmall
G M. Courbon4.6 pts · 2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 31
G T. Darlan5.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 35
MURSmall
F S. Tupuola TR6.3 pts · 5.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 55
G F. Zugic TR5.2 pts · 2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 56
Even
F B. Rogers TR6.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 67
Santa ClaraBetterMurray St
SCU offense93rd of 366 · -0.4
SCUSmall
MUR defense197th of 366 · -4.8
SCU defense137th of 366 · -2.8
Even
MUR offense110th of 366 · -1.8
Backcourt-2.9 · 5 players
MURBig
Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+0.4 · 2 players
Bench-0.2 · 3 players
Even
Bench-1.0 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestSCU betterMUR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Santa Clara
Guards
J. Ensminger29 minD. Castillo28 min · TRS. Gavalyugov20 minT. Darlan18 minF. Zugic16 min · TRK. Cochran12 min
Forwards
C. TadjoNewN. BadibangaNew
Centers
F. Chukwudebelu6 minS. Gueye4 min · TRA. EnsorNew
Murray St
Guards
C. Jones26 min · TRR. Domon25 minM. Courbon16 minB. Shorter15 minK. Magwood11 min · TRB. ShtolzbergNew
Forwards
S. Tupuola25 min · TRB. Rogers18 min · TRP. NikolicNewJ. BoulefaaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SCUMUR
Scoring
82.9 #30Points per game83.1 #26
1.18 #37Points per possession1.15 #56
69.7 #135Pace (possessions)72.3 #30
Shooting
54.5 #53Effective FG%53.8 #70
34.9 #1253-point %35.0 #120
45.0 #673-point attempt rate44.8 #72
25.5 #363Free throw rate38.6 #86
Possessions
15.3 #86Turnover rate16.4 #160
36.4 #20Offensive rebound rate32.6 #100
16.6 #33Assists per game13.7 #165
Defense
73.5 #141Points allowed80.2 #323
1.06 #117Points allowed per possession1.11 #233
52.0 #213Opponent effective FG%52.4 #236
33.1 #127Opponent 3-point %36.2 #310
20.1 #20Turnovers forced15.7 #234
67.9 #262Defensive rebound rate68.7 #214
8.7 #14Steals per game5.9 #248
3.6 #125Blocks per game4.1 #69
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Santa Clara

25-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Kentucky84–89
  • Lvs Gonzaga68–79
  • Wvs Saint Mary's76–71
  • Wvs Pacific76–68
  • Wvs Oregon St93–72

A week or more of rest.

Murray St

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Nevada75–89
  • Lvs UIC79–92
  • L@ Bradley78–87
  • Wvs Evansville88–75
  • L@ Illinois St61–78

A week or more of rest.