Colgate Raiders at Iona Gaels: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 12, 7:00 PM ETHynes Athletics Center · at Iona

#232IONAIona

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Colgate and Iona
COLG	This season	IONA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects IONA 75–73 · win probability IONA 59%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: IONA has more of the edges

COLG 2, IONA 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

COLG has played the 178th-hardest schedule, IONA the 326th. A record against a soft schedule means less

IONASmall

Three-pointers

COLG hits 35.6% and allows 34.8%; IONA hits 35.1% and allows 30.6%. Threes are 35.0% and 45.9% of their shots

IONASmall

Home court

IONA at home. This season: IONA 0-0 at home, COLG 0-0 away

COLGSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: COLG 59%, IONA 31%. Transfers in: COLG 0, IONA 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

IONASmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: COLG 53.3 and allows 52.2; IONA 51.9 and allows 48.9

COLGSmall

IONA offense vs COLG defense

Offense 262nd of 366 against a defense 214th, on the model’s ratings

IONASmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: COLG 29.7, IONA 29.3. Allowed: COLG 33.8, IONA 28.8

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: COLG 14.7%, IONA 17.2%. Forced: COLG 15.2%, IONA 16.6%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: COLG plays 68.6 a game (202nd fastest), IONA 69.8 (129th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: COLG 26.6%, IONA 27.8%. Defensive: COLG 70.7%, IONA 68.8%

Even

COLG offense vs IONA defense

Offense 205th of 366 against a defense 204th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	IONA -2.5	—
Total	—	147.9	—
Projected score	—	COLG 72.7 · IONA 75.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	IONA -1.4	—
1H total	69.2	—
1H projected score	COLG 33.9 · IONA 35.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COLG LLLWL	12-19	39%	7-9	—
IONA WWWWL	19-13	59%	9-5	—

Venue/role: COLG away; IONA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
COLG OUOOU	17-14	55%	16-15
IONA UOUUO	12-20	38%	18-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COLG	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
IONA	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Colgate

No more games listed yet.

Iona

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 15	@ CLT	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

COLG 0–2 IONAIONA leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · IONA has won the last 2 meetings · COLG 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 22, 2024-25	IONA 79 @ COLG 73	COLG -3.5	IONA W
Dec 21, 2023-24	COLG 65 @ IONA 85	IONA -1.5	IONA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Colgate

31 games played

Straight up

16-15

52% wins

Against the spread

12-19

39% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-14

55% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1552%

L L W L W L W W L L L W W W L W W L W W L W W W L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-1939%

W L W W W W L W W L L W L L L L W L L L L W W L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1455%

O U O U U O U U O U O O U U O O O U O O O U U O O U O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MSU	L 69-80	+22.5	W +11.5	144.5	O 149
Nov 7	vsNE	L 65-68	-5.5	L −8.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 11	vsDREX	W 90-83	-3.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 173
Nov 14	@ILL	L 65-84	+30.5	W +11.5	164.5	U 149
Nov 17	@SIE	W 72-69	+6.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 20	@COR	L 94-95	+5.5	W +4.5	161.5	O 189
Nov 28	vsUALB	W 69-67	-7.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 136
Nov 30	vsFOR	W 72-62	-1.5	W +8.5	142.5	U 134
Dec 10	@SBU	L 77-85	+9.5	W +1.5	142.5	O 162
Dec 21	@FLA	L 60-90	+27.5	L −2.5	156.5	U 150
Dec 28	vsHARV	L 69-78	-3.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 147
Dec 31	@LAF	W 85-77	-6.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 162
Jan 3	@ARMY	W 76-69	-7.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 7	vsAMER	W 64-62	-5.5	L −3.5	148.5	U 126
Jan 10	vsLEH	L 77-78	-11.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 14	@L-MD	W 86-80	-8.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 166
Jan 17	vsBUCK	W 95-76	-8.5	W +10.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 21	@AMER	L 66-70	+1.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 136
Jan 24	vsBU	W 80-79	-7.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 28	vsHC	W 79-74	-10.5	L −5.5	144.5	O 153
Jan 31	@LEH	L 76-77	-3.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 153
Feb 4	vsARMY	W 69-55	-10.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 124
Feb 7	@BUCK	W 78-59	-5.5	W +13.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 11	@HC	W 74-70	-8.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 144
Feb 14	vsNAVY	L 80-84	-1.5	L −5.5	139.5	O 164
Feb 16	@BU	L 58-85	-2.5	L −29.5	145.5	U 143
Feb 21	vsL-MD	W 101-98	-8.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 199
Feb 25	vsLAF	L 69-70	-8.5	L −9.5	148.5	U 139
Feb 28	@NAVY	L 69-85	+6.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 154
Mar 5	vsL-MD	W 90-77	-6.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 167
Mar 8	@LEH	L 69-76	-2.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MSU

L 69-80

+11.5

L 65-68

−8.5

DREX

W 90-83

+3.5

ILL

L 65-84

+11.5

SIE

W 72-69

+9.5

COR

L 94-95

+4.5

UALB

W 69-67

−5.5

FOR

W 72-62

+8.5

SBU

L 77-85

+1.5

FLA

L 60-90

−2.5

HARV

L 69-78

−12.5

LAF

W 85-77

+1.5

ARMY

W 76-69

−0.5

AMER

W 64-62

−3.5

LEH

L 77-78

−12.5

L-MD

W 86-80

−2.5

BUCK

W 95-76

+10.5

AMER

L 66-70

−2.5

W 80-79

−6.5

W 79-74

−5.5

LEH

L 76-77

−4.5

ARMY

W 69-55

+3.5

BUCK

W 78-59

+13.5

W 74-70

−4.5

NAVY

L 80-84

−5.5

L 58-85

−29.5

L-MD

W 101-98

−5.5

LAF

L 69-70

−9.5

NAVY

L 69-85

−9.5

L-MD

W 90-77

+6.5

LEH

L 69-76

−9.5

covered 12didn’t cover 19avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MSU

L 69-80

+4.5

L 65-68

−14.5

DREX

W 90-83

+29.5

ILL

L 65-84

−15.5

SIE

W 72-69

−5.5

COR

L 94-95

+27.5

UALB

W 69-67

−5.5

FOR

W 72-62

−8.5

SBU

L 77-85

+19.5

FLA

L 60-90

−6.5

HARV

L 69-78

+5.5

LAF

W 85-77

+15.5

ARMY

W 76-69

−2.5

AMER

W 64-62

−22.5

LEH

L 77-78

+12.5

L-MD

W 86-80

+15.5

BUCK

W 95-76

+31.5

AMER

L 66-70

−10.5

W 80-79

+11.5

W 79-74

+8.5

LEH

L 76-77

+6.5

ARMY

W 69-55

−26.5

BUCK

W 78-59

−4.5

W 74-70

+1.5

NAVY

L 80-84

+24.5

L 58-85

−2.5

L-MD

W 101-98

+48.5

LAF

L 69-70

−9.5

NAVY

L 69-85

+12.5

L-MD

W 90-77

+11.5

LEH

L 69-76

−1.5

over 17under 14avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Iona

32 games played

Straight up

18-14

56% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg 0 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-20

38% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1456%

W W W W L W L W L W W L W L W L W W L L W W L L L W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1359%

W W L W L W L W L W L W W L W L W W L L W W L W L W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

12-2038%

O O U O U O O O U U U U O U U U U U U U U U U O O U O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsHOF	W 81-73	+1.5	W +9.5	144.5	O 154
Nov 11	@KC	W 105-91	-4.5	W +9.5	156.5	O 196
Nov 14	vsFOR	W 76-71	-5.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 147
Nov 18	vsPRIN	W 89-69	-2.5	W +17.5	154.5	O 158
Nov 21	vsAKR	L 75-96	+11.5	L −9.5	173.5	U 171
Nov 22	vsORST	W 91-84	+3.5	W +10.5	157.5	O 175
Nov 24	vsGB	L 75-80	-5.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 155
Dec 1	@DEL	W 89-66	-1.5	W +21.5	149.5	O 155
Dec 5	vsQUIN	L 68-89	-2.5	L −23.5	163.5	U 157
Dec 7	@SHU	W 81-69	+1.5	W +13.5	163.5	U 150
Dec 10	vsBRY	W 69-63	-8.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 132
Dec 13	@SJU	L 64-91	+28.5	W +1.5	159.5	U 155
Dec 20	@UVM	W 83-78	+6.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 161
Dec 29	@MSM	L 59-66	-2.5	L −9.5	153.5	U 125
Jan 2	vsSIE	W 75-72	+1.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 147
Jan 4	@MRST	L 38-83	+4.5	L −40.5	148.5	U 121
Jan 9	vsNIA	W 71-53	-10.5	W +7.5	140.5	U 124
Jan 11	vsCAN	W 74-48	-11.5	W +14.5	141.5	U 122
Jan 14	@RID	L 68-72	-7.5	L −11.5	141.5	U 140
Jan 19	@SPU	L 63-77	+3.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 140
Jan 22	vsMRMK	W 61-60	+1.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 121
Jan 24	vsMAN	W 66-57	-7.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 123
Jan 30	vsFAIR	L 70-71	-1.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 141
Feb 5	@SIE	L 72-79	+8.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 151
Feb 7	vsMSM	L 76-83	-3.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 159
Feb 13	@CAN	W 69-63	-4.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 132
Feb 15	@NIA	L 68-70	-3.5	L −5.5	132.5	O 138
Feb 20	vsSPU	W 72-64	-1.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 136
Feb 22	@MRMK	L 86-88	+6.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 174
Feb 27	vsRID	W 80-58	-11.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 138
Mar 1	@MAN	W 69-65	-2.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 134
Mar 5	vsSHU	L 80-91	-3.5	L −14.5	149.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOF

W 81-73

+9.5

W 105-91

+9.5

FOR

W 76-71

−0.5

PRIN

W 89-69

+17.5

AKR

L 75-96

−9.5

ORST

W 91-84

+10.5

L 75-80

−10.5

DEL

W 89-66

+21.5

QUIN

L 68-89

−23.5

SHU

W 81-69

+13.5

BRY

W 69-63

−2.5

SJU

L 64-91

+1.5

UVM

W 83-78

+11.5

MSM

L 59-66

−9.5

SIE

W 75-72

+4.5

MRST

L 38-83

−40.5

NIA

W 71-53

+7.5

CAN

W 74-48

+14.5

RID

L 68-72

−11.5

SPU

L 63-77

−10.5

MRMK

W 61-60

+2.5

MAN

W 66-57

+1.5

FAIR

L 70-71

−2.5

SIE

L 72-79

+1.5

MSM

L 76-83

−10.5

CAN

W 69-63

+1.5

NIA

L 68-70

−5.5

SPU

W 72-64

+6.5

MRMK

L 86-88

+4.5

RID

W 80-58

+10.5

MAN

W 69-65

+1.5

SHU

L 80-91

−14.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOF

W 81-73

+9.5

W 105-91

+39.5

FOR

W 76-71

−10.5

PRIN

W 89-69

+3.5

AKR

L 75-96

−2.5

ORST

W 91-84

+17.5

L 75-80

+4.5

DEL

W 89-66

+5.5

QUIN

L 68-89

−6.5

SHU

W 81-69

−13.5

BRY

W 69-63

−14.5

SJU

L 64-91

−4.5

UVM

W 83-78

+8.5

MSM

L 59-66

−28.5

SIE

W 75-72

−2.5

MRST

L 38-83

−27.5

NIA

W 71-53

−16.5

CAN

W 74-48

−19.5

RID

L 68-72

−1.5

SPU

L 63-77

−1.5

MRMK

W 61-60

−22.5

MAN

W 66-57

−30.5

FAIR

L 70-71

−5.5

SIE

L 72-79

+10.5

MSM

L 76-83

+17.5

CAN

W 69-63

−5.5

NIA

L 68-70

+5.5

SPU

W 72-64

−4.5

MRMK

L 86-88

+37.5

RID

W 80-58

−3.5

MAN

W 69-65

−17.5

SHU

L 80-91

+21.5

over 12under 20avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Colgate has the better starters

Position by position: Colgate 2, Iona 1, even 2

ColgateBetterIona

G J. Ahayere7.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 32

Even

G K. Vanderhorst TR9.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 2.8 ast Score 44

F A. Alekseyenko14.9 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 75

COLGBig

G M. Kheil TR9.2 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 17

F S. Wright12.5 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 60

Even

G K. Akametu11 pts · 5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 53

F C. Wright1.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8

IONABig

F A. Disu TR11 pts · 5.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 50

F A. Odetoyinbo1.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.2 ast Score 20

COLGSmall

F A. Fall2.7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 3

ColgateBetterIona

COLG offense205th of 366 · -6.3

Even

IONA defense204th of 366 · -5.0

COLG defense214th of 366 · -5.5

Even

IONA offense262nd of 366 · -8.0

Backcourt-1.6 · 1 player

COLGSmall

Backcourt-4.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.5 · 4 players

COLGSmall

Frontcourt-3.0 · 2 players

Bench-1.1 · 4 players

Even

Bench-0.9 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestCOLG betterIONA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Colgate

Guards

J. Ahayere25 minC. Pugh1 minJ. Niv1 minP. JonesNewB. ForrestNewI. SkinnNew

Forwards

A. Alekseyenko30 minS. Wright26 minC. Wright12 minA. Odetoyinbo11 minE. Brown7 minC. Brennan4 min

Iona

Guards

K. Vanderhorst30 min · TRM. Kheil30 min · TRK. Akametu24 minO. Hourruitiner2 minP. LefasNewD. DoyleNew

Forwards

A. Disu28 min · TRA. Fall19 minL. Jungers16 minK. Mitchell11 min · TRS. Ibine Ayo8 min · TRO. OdutayoNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

COLG75.6 #154

IONA73.8 #206

Points per possession

COLG1.11 #121

IONA1.06 #228

Pace (possessions)

COLG68.6 #202

IONA69.8 #129

Shooting

Effective FG%

COLG53.3 #91

IONA51.9 #149

3-point %

COLG35.6 #81

IONA35.1 #105

3-point attempt rate

COLG35.0 #275

IONA45.9 #49

Free throw rate

COLG29.7 #316

IONA29.3 #326

Possessions

Turnover rate

COLG14.7 #50

IONA17.2 #220

Offensive rebound rate

COLG26.6 #309

IONA27.8 #274

Assists per game

COLG14.2 #130

IONA14.0 #147

Defense

Points allowed

COLG76.2 #222

IONA73.1 #136

Points allowed per possession

COLG1.11 #230

IONA1.05 #85

Opponent effective FG%

COLG52.2 #224

IONA48.9 #64

Opponent 3-point %

COLG34.8 #238

IONA30.6 #25

Turnovers forced

COLG15.2 #268

IONA16.6 #180

Defensive rebound rate

COLG70.7 #125

IONA68.8 #212

Steals per game

COLG6.1 #230

IONA6.6 #159

Blocks per game

COLG2.9 #249

IONA3.0 #227

COLG		IONA
Scoring
75.6 #154	Points per game	73.8 #206
1.11 #121	Points per possession	1.06 #228
68.6 #202	Pace (possessions)	69.8 #129
Shooting
53.3 #91	Effective FG%	51.9 #149
35.6 #81	3-point %	35.1 #105
35.0 #275	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #49
29.7 #316	Free throw rate	29.3 #326
Possessions
14.7 #50	Turnover rate	17.2 #220
26.6 #309	Offensive rebound rate	27.8 #274
14.2 #130	Assists per game	14.0 #147
Defense
76.2 #222	Points allowed	73.1 #136
1.11 #230	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #85
52.2 #224	Opponent effective FG%	48.9 #64
34.8 #238	Opponent 3-point %	30.6 #25
15.2 #268	Turnovers forced	16.6 #180
70.7 #125	Defensive rebound rate	68.8 #212
6.1 #230	Steals per game	6.6 #159
2.9 #249	Blocks per game	3.0 #227

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Colgate

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Lehigh69–76
Wvs Loyola MD90–77
L@ Navy69–85
Lvs Lafayette69–70
Wvs Loyola MD101–98

A week or more of rest.

Iona

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 10-11 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Sacred Heart80–91
W@ Manhattan69–65
Wvs Rider80–58
L@ Merrimack86–88
Wvs Saint Peter's72–64

A week or more of rest.

Colgate Raiders at Iona Gaels

What could decide it: IONA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Colgate

Iona

Colgate has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Colgate

Iona