1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. NEB vs MIZ
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Missouri Tigers

T-Mobile Center · Neutral site
#27NEBNebraska
vs
#54MIZMissouri
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NEBThis seasonMIZ
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NEB 78–72 · win probability NEB 71%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 149.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NEB has more of the edges

NEB 3, MIZ 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NEBBig
Three-pointers
NEB hits 35.5% and allows 30.5%; MIZ hits 35.0% and allows 36.8%. Threes are 51.1% and 36.4% of their shots
NEBBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NEB 14.5%, MIZ 17.7%. Forced: NEB 18.9%, MIZ 16.6%
NEBSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: NEB 55.5 and allows 48.1; MIZ 55.0 and allows 51.5
MIZSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: NEB 26.2, MIZ 42.1. Allowed: NEB 25.1, MIZ 35.5
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: NEB plays 67.3 a game (267th fastest), MIZ 68.8 (191st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NEB 26.7%, MIZ 34.9%. Defensive: NEB 72.6%, MIZ 68.3%
Even
MIZ offense vs NEB defense
Offense 52nd of 366 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NEB 48%, MIZ 33%. Transfers in: NEB 6, MIZ 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
NEB has played the 59th-hardest schedule, MIZ the 45th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
NEB offense vs MIZ defense
Offense 43rd of 366 against a defense 49th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NEB -6.3—
Total—149.3—
Projected score—NEB 77.8 · MIZ 71.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNEB -3.9—
1H total69.8—
1H projected scoreNEB 36.8 · MIZ 33—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Nebraska has the better starters

Position by position: Nebraska 4, Missouri 0, even 1
NebraskaBetterMissouri
G T. Leonhardt TR12 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.7 ast Score 83
NEBBig
G J. Crawford TR14.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 44
F P. Sandfort18.1 pts · 4.9 reb · 2 ast Score 97
NEBSmall
G C. Stansberry TR14.6 pts · 4 reb · 2 ast Score 69
F B. Kapke TR10.6 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 77
NEBSmall
G K. Davis TR8.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 48
F S. Orme TR12.5 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 86
Even
G T. Pierce10.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 80
F D. Wilkinson TR14.1 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 93
NEBSmall
F B. Tiller TR7.9 pts · 6.1 reb · 1 ast Score 68
NebraskaBetterMissouri
NEB offense43rd of 366 · +4.6
Even
MIZ defense49th of 366 · +2.0
NEB defense23rd of 366 · +5.1
Even
MIZ offense52nd of 366 · +3.3
Backcourt+2.0 · 1 player
NEBSmall
Backcourt-0.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt+13.0 · 4 players
NEBBig
Frontcourt+0.8 · 1 player
Bench+1.7 · 5 players
Even
Bench+2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNEB betterMIZ betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Nebraska
Guards
T. Leonhardt35 min · TRC. Jacobsen20 minT. DeGourville19 min · TRC. Essegian14 minJ. LanierNewC. RiceNew
Forwards
P. Sandfort34 minB. Kapke27 min · TRS. Orme26 min · TRD. Wilkinson25 min · TRB. Frager24 minK. Betts6 min · TR
Missouri
Guards
J. Crawford32 min · TRC. Stansberry30 min · TRK. Davis30 min · TRT. Pierce28 minJ. Jones26 min · TRA. Boateng12 min
Forwards
B. Tiller26 min · TRJ. Carey18 min · TRL. Northweather12 minN. Randall6 minT. BryantNew
Centers
T. Burns9 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NEBMIZ
Scoring
77.0 #116Points per game79.2 #78
1.15 #61Points per possession1.15 #65
67.3 #267Pace (possessions)68.8 #191
Shooting
55.5 #28Effective FG%55.0 #36
35.5 #913-point %35.0 #112
51.1 #93-point attempt rate36.4 #240
26.2 #356Free throw rate42.1 #28
Possessions
14.5 #44Turnover rate17.7 #255
26.7 #306Offensive rebound rate34.9 #48
18.0 #10Assists per game14.2 #132
Defense
66.1 #14Points allowed75.5 #204
0.98 #13Points allowed per possession1.10 #224
48.1 #40Opponent effective FG%51.5 #183
30.5 #19Opponent 3-point %36.8 #341
18.9 #54Turnovers forced16.6 #182
72.6 #47Defensive rebound rate68.3 #238
7.1 #112Steals per game6.6 #162
2.5 #303Blocks per game3.5 #140
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nebraska

28-7 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa71–77
  • Wvs Vanderbilt74–72
  • Wvs Troy76–47
  • Lvs Purdue58–74
  • Wvs Iowa84–75

A week or more of rest.

Missouri

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Miami66–80
  • Lvs Kentucky72–78
  • Lvs Arkansas84–88
  • L@ Oklahoma64–80
  • W@ Mississippi St88–64

A week or more of rest.