1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. SIE @ UALB
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Siena Saints at UAlbany Great Danes

Broadview Center · at UAlbany
#260SIESiena
@
#301UALBUAlbany
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SIEThis seasonUALB
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SIE 71–69 · win probability SIE 55%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 140.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SIE has more of the edges

SIE 6, UALB 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SIEBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: SIE 33.4, UALB 24.9. Allowed: SIE 27.5, UALB 35.7
SIEBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SIE 15.8%, UALB 18.5%. Forced: SIE 17.0%, UALB 15.8%
SIEBig
UALB offense vs SIE defense
Offense 313th of 366 against a defense 194th, on the model’s ratings
SIESmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SIE 50.4 and allows 48.5; UALB 51.4 and allows 53.2
SIESmall
Three-pointers
SIE hits 30.6% and allows 32.4%; UALB hits 32.6% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 32.2% and 37.6% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
SIE has played the 320th-hardest schedule, UALB the 260th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SIESmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SIE 31.8%, UALB 32.7%. Defensive: SIE 70.5%, UALB 67.6%
UALBSmall
Home court
UALB at home. This season: UALB 0-0 at home, SIE 0-0 away
UALBSmall
SIE offense vs UALB defense
Offense 309th of 366 against a defense 259th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SIE 28%, UALB 38%. Transfers in: SIE 1, UALB 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 65 possessions: SIE plays 64.4 a game (354th fastest), UALB 65.6 (324th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SIE -1.4—
Total—140.3—
Projected score—SIE 70.8 · UALB 69.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSIE -0.9—
1H total65.7—
1H projected scoreSIE 33.3 · UALB 32.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UAlbany has the better starters

Position by position: Siena 0, UAlbany 2, even 3
SienaBetterUAlbany
G T. Yildizoglu TR10.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.4 ast Score 30
Even
G A. Fall9.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 27
G B. Coyle8.7 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 17
UALBSmall
G Z. Matulu9.7 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 48
G I. Henderson3.8 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.5 ast Score 12
UALBBig
G P. Santos TR6.9 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51
G O. Schlager2.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Rose2.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 1
G C. Torres0.5 pts · 0 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F B. Michaels TR1.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 3
SienaBetterUAlbany
SIE offense309th of 366 · -9.6
Even
UALB defense259th of 366 · -6.7
SIE defense194th of 366 · -4.7
SIESmall
UALB offense313th of 366 · -10.0
Backcourt-7.7 · 5 players
UALBSmall
Backcourt-6.0 · 4 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.2 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestSIE betterUALB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Siena
Guards
T. Yildizoglu32 min · TRB. Coyle31 minI. Henderson14 minO. Schlager10 minC. Torres3 minR. DucharmeNew
UAlbany
Guards
A. Fall31 minZ. Matulu30 minP. Santos19 min · TRM. Rose15 minP. KountaNewO. EngenNew
Forwards
B. Michaels13 min · TRE. BussingNewP. MiovicNewU. GrahamNew
Centers
K. Webb3 min · TRC. SmithNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SIEUALB
Scoring
70.4 #276Points per game68.7 #302
1.09 #154Points per possession1.05 #259
64.4 #354Pace (possessions)65.6 #324
Shooting
50.4 #222Effective FG%51.4 #182
30.6 #3303-point %32.6 #248
32.2 #3273-point attempt rate37.6 #220
33.4 #226Free throw rate24.9 #364
Possessions
15.8 #126Turnover rate18.5 #299
31.8 #133Offensive rebound rate32.7 #99
13.5 #182Assists per game12.8 #232
Defense
65.8 #12Points allowed74.5 #176
1.02 #44Points allowed per possession1.14 #302
48.5 #48Opponent effective FG%53.2 #275
32.4 #82Opponent 3-point %36.0 #302
17.0 #154Turnovers forced15.8 #228
70.5 #133Defensive rebound rate67.6 #277
5.8 #262Steals per game6.7 #153
3.1 #205Blocks per game3.9 #82
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Siena

23-12 in 2025-26 overall · 16-7 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Duke65–71
  • Wvs Merrimack64–54
  • Wvs Fairfield76–61
  • Wvs Mount St Marys63–58
  • Wvs Rider76–61

A week or more of rest.

UAlbany

8-21 in 2025-26 overall · 7-10 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ UMass Lowell76–81
  • L@ Vermont56–69
  • Wvs New Hampshire84–61
  • Lvs Maine59–70
  • L@ UMBC62–66

A week or more of rest.