Iona Gaels at Marist Red Foxes: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Jan 4, 2:00 PM ETMcCann Arena · at Marist · Conference game

#233IONAIona38final

Final

#236MRSTMarist83▲ winner

Closing lineMRST -4.5✓ MRST covered by 40.5

Closing total148.5Under by 27.5

Season records: Iona and Marist
IONA	This season	MRST
10-5	Record	7-5
9-6	ATS	6-6
7-8	O/U	5-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: IONA 69–74 MRST · ✓ MRST (65%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
IONA	22	16	38
MRST	42	41	83

1st half: IONA 22, MRST 42 (MRST by 20). The model had MRST by 2.6 and a total of 67.1 (actual 64).

Team stats

IONA		MRST
14-44 32%	Field goals	31-68 46%
1-14 7%	3-pointers	8-29 28%
9-17 53%	Free throws	13-15 87%
32 5 off	Rebounds	42 11 off
6	Assists	23
6	Steals	14
2	Blocks	1
24	Turnovers	6
16	Fouls	17
22	Points in paint	36
7	Fast-break points	12

Players

IONA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Toby Harris F	26	0	4	1	0-6	0-4
CJ Anthony G	23	11	2	2	4-6	0-1
Lamin Sabally F	23	2	5	1	1-4	0-0
Alliou Fall F	19	1	4	1	0-0	0-0
Kosy Akametu G	14	7	0	0	3-5	0-1
Bench
Luke Jungers F	23	3	5	0	1-2	1-2
Chase Cormier G	19	0	1	0	0-6	0-4
Denver Anglin G	19	8	1	0	4-11	0-2
Khalil Badru G	13	4	4	0	0-1	0-0
Keshawn Williams G	13	2	2	1	1-1	0-0
Matt Reed F	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Connor Horan F	2	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Oscar Hourruitiner Jr. G	2	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Deondrea Lindsey, Marko Pandiloski, Ore Odutayo

MRST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jadin Collins-Roberts G	26	6	7	2	3-9	0-3
Elijah Lewis G	24	14	4	3	6-10	1-4
Justin Menard G	24	7	2	5	2-5	1-3
Jason Schofield C	18	10	5	2	4-6	0-0
Jaden Daughtry F	15	3	3	2	1-3	1-3
Bench
Rhyjon Blackwell G	26	17	4	3	6-10	3-6
Myles Parker F	20	11	3	2	4-9	1-5
Parby Kabamba F	12	5	3	2	2-6	1-4
Martin Kawa G	11	2	1	1	0-0	0-0
Trace Salton F	6	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Tarik Watson C	6	2	0	0	1-3	0-0
Ricky McKenzie G	5	2	1	0	0-3	0-1
Jordan Gabriel C	4	4	3	0	2-3	0-0
Antoni Vlogianitis G	3	0	2	1	0-1	0-0

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MRST -4.5	MRST -4.5	—	MRST covered
Total	148.5	143.2	Under 5.3	W Under
Projected score	—	IONA 69.3 · MRST 73.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MRST -2.6	MRST -20.0
1H total	67.1	64
1H projected score	IONA 32.2 · MRST 34.8	IONA 22 · MRST 42

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IONA LWWLW	9-6	60%	5-1	6-1
MRST WLWLL	6-6	50%	3-3	4-4

Venue/role: IONA away, as underdog; MRST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IONA UUOUU	7-8	47%	10-5
MRST OOUUU	5-7	42%	7-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IONA	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
MRST	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

IONA 7–2 MRSTIONA leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · IONA 5-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 8, 2024-25	IONA 75 @ MRST 71	MRST -3.5	IONA W
Jan 3, 2024-25	MRST 70 @ IONA 65	IONA -3.5	MRST W
Mar 3, 2023-24	IONA 71 @ MRST 64	MRST -4.5	IONA W
Nov 29, 2023-24	MRST 68 @ IONA 64	IONA -7.5	MRST W
Mar 11, 2022-23	MRST 55 vs IONA 76	IONA -14.5	IONA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Iona

15 games played

Straight up

10-5

67% wins

Against the spread

9-6

60% covers · avg +2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-8

47% overs · avg +0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-567%

W W W W L W L W L W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

9-660%

W W L W L W L W L W L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-847%

O O U O U O O O U U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsHOF	W 81-73	+1.5	W +9.5	144.5	O 154
Nov 11	@KC	W 105-91	-4.5	W +9.5	156.5	O 196
Nov 14	vsFOR	W 76-71	-5.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 147
Nov 18	vsPRIN	W 89-69	-2.5	W +17.5	154.5	O 158
Nov 21	vsAKR	L 75-96	+11.5	L −9.5	173.5	U 171
Nov 22	vsORST	W 91-84	+3.5	W +10.5	157.5	O 175
Nov 24	vsGB	L 75-80	-5.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 155
Dec 1	@DEL	W 89-66	-1.5	W +21.5	149.5	O 155
Dec 5	vsQUIN	L 68-89	-2.5	L −23.5	163.5	U 157
Dec 7	@SHU	W 81-69	+1.5	W +13.5	163.5	U 150
Dec 10	vsBRY	W 69-63	-8.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 132
Dec 13	@SJU	L 64-91	+28.5	W +1.5	159.5	U 155
Dec 20	@UVM	W 83-78	+6.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 161
Dec 29	@MSM	L 59-66	-2.5	L −9.5	153.5	U 125
Jan 2	vsSIE	W 75-72	+1.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOF

W 81-73

+9.5

W 105-91

+9.5

FOR

W 76-71

−0.5

PRIN

W 89-69

+17.5

AKR

L 75-96

−9.5

ORST

W 91-84

+10.5

L 75-80

−10.5

DEL

W 89-66

+21.5

QUIN

L 68-89

−23.5

SHU

W 81-69

+13.5

BRY

W 69-63

−2.5

SJU

L 64-91

+1.5

UVM

W 83-78

+11.5

MSM

L 59-66

−9.5

SIE

W 75-72

+4.5

covered 9didn’t cover 6avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOF

W 81-73

+9.5

W 105-91

+39.5

FOR

W 76-71

−10.5

PRIN

W 89-69

+3.5

AKR

L 75-96

−2.5

ORST

W 91-84

+17.5

L 75-80

+4.5

DEL

W 89-66

+5.5

QUIN

L 68-89

−6.5

SHU

W 81-69

−13.5

BRY

W 69-63

−14.5

SJU

L 64-91

−4.5

UVM

W 83-78

+8.5

MSM

L 59-66

−28.5

SIE

W 75-72

−2.5

over 7under 8avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Marist

12 games played

Straight up

7-5

58% wins

Against the spread

6-6

50% covers · avg +3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-7

42% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-558%

L W L W W W W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-650%

W W L L W L W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-742%

U U U O O U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@XAV	L 62-66	+12.5	W +8.5	139.5	U 128
Nov 9	@DART	W 75-56	+1.5	W +20.5	138.5	U 131
Nov 16	vsHARV	L 54-56	-6.5	L −8.5	130.5	U 110
Nov 21	vsARMY	W 76-65	-12.5	L −1.5	132.5	O 141
Nov 25	vsLEH	W 78-55	-7.5	W +15.5	132.5	O 133
Dec 5	vsMSM	W 64-56	-8.5	L −0.5	136.5	U 120
Dec 7	vsMAN	W 80-68	-7.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 148
Dec 13	@BRY	W 82-74	-1.5	W +6.5	131.5	O 156
Dec 16	@GT	L 76-87	+6.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 163
Dec 21	vsSTBK	W 70-51	-6.5	W +12.5	137.5	U 121
Dec 29	@QUIN	L 58-64	+2.5	L −3.5	145.5	U 122
Jan 2	@SPU	L 59-69	-2.5	L −12.5	133.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

XAV

L 62-66

+8.5

DART

W 75-56

+20.5

HARV

L 54-56

−8.5

ARMY

W 76-65

−1.5

LEH

W 78-55

+15.5

MSM

W 64-56

−0.5

MAN

W 80-68

+4.5

BRY

W 82-74

+6.5

L 76-87

−4.5

STBK

W 70-51

+12.5

QUIN

L 58-64

−3.5

SPU

L 59-69

−12.5

covered 6didn’t cover 6avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

XAV

L 62-66

−11.5

DART

W 75-56

−7.5

HARV

L 54-56

−20.5

ARMY

W 76-65

+8.5

LEH

W 78-55

+0.5

MSM

W 64-56

−16.5

MAN

W 80-68

+7.5

BRY

W 82-74

+24.5

L 76-87

+21.5

STBK

W 70-51

−16.5

QUIN

L 58-64

−23.5

SPU

L 59-69

−5.5

over 5under 7avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Iona Gaels at Marist Red Foxes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Iona

Marist

Iona

Marist