1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. USF @ DAY
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

South Florida Bulls at Dayton Flyers

UD Arena · at Dayton
#84USFSouth Florida
@
#91DAYDayton
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
USFThis seasonDAY
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAY 77–76 · win probability DAY 55%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 152.5
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

USF 2, DAY 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: USF plays 74.4 a game (9th fastest), DAY 68.3 (213th). Faster games mean more points
DAYSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: USF 40.4, DAY 46.1. Allowed: USF 39.0, DAY 35.5
USFSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: USF 38.1%, DAY 26.9%. Defensive: USF 68.1%, DAY 71.2%
DAYSmall
Home court
DAY at home. This season: DAY 0-0 at home, USF 0-0 away
USFSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: USF 15.1%, DAY 16.9%. Forced: USF 19.1%, DAY 21.0%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: USF 50.6 and allows 48.8; DAY 51.6 and allows 51.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: USF 14%, DAY 31%. Transfers in: USF 10, DAY 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
DAY offense vs USF defense
Offense 109th of 366 against a defense 121st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
USF hits 32.5% and allows 34.5%; DAY hits 33.9% and allows 35.4%. Threes are 43.8% and 41.4% of their shots
Even
USF offense vs DAY defense
Offense 59th of 366 against a defense 57th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
USF has played the 89th-hardest schedule, DAY the 90th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—DAY -1.4—
Total—152.5—
Projected score—USF 75.5 · DAY 77

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadDAY -0.7—
1H total71.3—
1H projected scoreUSF 35.3 · DAY 36—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: South Florida 2, Dayton 2, even 1
South FloridaBetterDayton
G S. Wilson TR17.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 4.5 ast Score 79
USFSmall
G Z. Lowery TR8.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 63
G A. Dancler TR15.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 2 ast Score 72
Even
G L. Joseph TR7.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 78
G J. Omojafo11 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.7 ast Score 80
USFSmall
F G. Randall TR11.5 pts · 6.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 65
G A. Shoshkikj TR10.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 73
DAYSmall
F A. L'Etang11.9 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89
F R. Goods TR7.8 pts · 5.9 reb · 2 ast Score 41
DAYSmall
F J. Simon5.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 63
South FloridaBetterDayton
USF offense59th of 366 · +2.7
Even
DAY defense57th of 366 · +1.4
USF defense121st of 366 · -2.1
Even
DAY offense109th of 366 · -1.7
Backcourt+4.4 · 4 players
USFBig
Backcourt+0.8 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.8 · 1 player
DAYBig
Frontcourt+3.5 · 3 players
Bench-0.3 · 5 players
Even
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUSF betterDAY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
South Florida
Guards
S. Wilson37 min · TRA. Dancler34 min · TRJ. Omojafo28 minA. Shoshkikj26 min · TRC. Davis18 min · TRM. James11 min · TR
Forwards
R. Goods25 min · TRG. Johnson23 min · TRJ. Lewis23 min · TRZ. High9 min · TRR. StevensonNewJ. FeldhausNew
Centers
T. Diawara3 min · TR
Dayton
Guards
Z. Lowery23 min · TRL. Joseph18 min · TRT. Perry17 min · TRE. Dickey2 minM. Grant1 minW. Maxwell1 min
Forwards
G. Randall32 min · TRA. L'Etang26 minJ. Simon18 minM. Thomas9 minD. Friery6 minJ. HaynesNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
USFDAY
Scoring
86.8 #6Points per game74.1 #193
1.17 #42Points per possession1.09 #167
74.4 #9Pace (possessions)68.3 #213
Shooting
50.6 #209Effective FG%51.6 #168
32.5 #2553-point %33.9 #182
43.8 #933-point attempt rate41.4 #142
40.4 #55Free throw rate46.1 #2
Possessions
15.1 #73Turnover rate16.9 #198
38.1 #7Offensive rebound rate26.9 #298
16.8 #28Assists per game14.2 #134
Defense
76.5 #230Points allowed69.3 #50
1.03 #54Points allowed per possession1.01 #37
48.8 #58Opponent effective FG%51.0 #164
34.5 #218Opponent 3-point %35.4 #270
19.1 #42Turnovers forced21.0 #11
68.1 #252Defensive rebound rate71.2 #94
9.0 #8Steals per game8.2 #31
4.0 #72Blocks per game3.9 #90
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

South Florida

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-3 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Louisville79–83
  • Wvs Wichita St70–55
  • Wvs Charlotte86–64
  • Wvs Charlotte83–60
  • W@ Memphis96–89

A week or more of rest.

Dayton

25-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois St55–61
  • W@ UNC Wilmington80–61
  • W@ Bradley80–66
  • Lvs VCU62–70
  • Wvs Saint Louis70–69

A week or more of rest.