1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. MASS @ KENT
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Massachusetts Minutemen at Kent State Golden Flashes

M.A.C. Center · at Kent State · Conference game
#209MASSUMass
@
#151KENTKent State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MASSThis seasonKENT
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects KENT 81–74 · win probability KENT 72%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: KENT has more of the edges

MASS 2, KENT 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
KENTBig
KENT offense vs MASS defense
Offense 128th of 366 against a defense 248th, on the model’s ratings
KENTSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MASS 37.0, KENT 43.5. Allowed: MASS 44.6, KENT 39.5
MASSSmall
Three-pointers
MASS hits 35.2% and allows 33.0%; KENT hits 35.0% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 35.4% and 44.9% of their shots
KENTSmall
Home court
KENT at home. This season: KENT 0-0 at home, MASS 0-0 away
MASSSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MASS 46%, KENT 19%. Transfers in: MASS 2, KENT 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MASS 33.3%, KENT 35.3%. Defensive: MASS 73.9%, KENT 70.7%
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MASS 17.8%, KENT 17.9%. Forced: MASS 16.9%, KENT 16.1%
Even
MASS offense vs KENT defense
Offense 170th of 366 against a defense 196th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MASS 53.1 and allows 52.9; KENT 51.4 and allows 52.1
Context
Schedule so far
MASS has played the 181st-hardest schedule, KENT the 179th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 73 possessions: MASS plays 72.7 a game (21st fastest), KENT 73.3 (17th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—KENT -6.7—
Total—154.9—
Projected score—MASS 74.1 · KENT 80.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadKENT -3.9—
1H total72.4—
1H projected scoreMASS 34.3 · KENT 38.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Kent State has the better starters

Position by position: UMass 0, Kent State 3, even 2
UMassBetterKent State
G D. Carbuccia6.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 29
KENTBig
G C. Henry TR11.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.1 ast Score 66
G J. Ndjigue6.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.9 ast Score 34
No call
G C. Willis TR6.3 pts · 3 reb · 3.3 ast Not ranked
G J. Clayton TR3.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 36
KENTSmall
G Q. Woidke9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 69
F J. Wang TR8.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 62
Even
F C. Williams TR9.9 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 52
F D. Wimbley2.2 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 0
KENTBig
F G. Nwabude TR5.1 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.2 ast Score 57
UMassBetterKent State
MASS offense170th of 366 · -5.2
Even
KENT defense196th of 366 · -4.8
MASS defense248th of 366 · -6.5
KENTSmall
KENT offense128th of 366 · -3.5
Backcourt-4.5 · 3 players
KENTBig
Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.5 · 2 players
KENTSmall
Frontcourt-0.2 · 2 players
Bench-1.3 · 3 players
MASSSmall
Bench-2.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMASS betterKENT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UMass
Guards
D. Carbuccia28 minJ. Ndjigue27 minJ. Clayton18 min · TRR. Castineyra3 minJ. EngelNewC. HaileyNew
Forwards
J. Wang20 min · TRD. Wimbley14 minL. Damjanac10 minD. Clerc9 minA. AhmedNewC. SyllaNew
Kent State
Guards
C. Henry29 min · TRC. Willis27 min · TRQ. Woidke20 minB. Moss5 minD. Lakatos1 minJ. SumlinNew
Forwards
C. Williams24 min · TRG. Nwabude19 min · TRL. Diouf13 min · TRD. Briscoe8 minL. Vanderwarker4 minJ. TownsendNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MASSKENT
Scoring
79.9 #68Points per game82.3 #31
1.10 #144Points per possession1.12 #102
72.7 #21Pace (possessions)73.3 #17
Shooting
53.1 #99Effective FG%51.4 #175
35.2 #1003-point %35.0 #118
35.4 #2653-point attempt rate44.9 #69
37.0 #130Free throw rate43.5 #15
Possessions
17.8 #263Turnover rate17.9 #268
33.3 #80Offensive rebound rate35.3 #39
16.7 #30Assists per game15.1 #81
Defense
78.8 #288Points allowed80.6 #328
1.09 #189Points allowed per possession1.10 #221
52.9 #262Opponent effective FG%52.1 #219
33.0 #121Opponent 3-point %35.0 #246
16.9 #162Turnovers forced16.1 #219
73.9 #20Defensive rebound rate70.7 #124
6.6 #164Steals per game6.5 #174
2.2 #334Blocks per game3.3 #184
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UMass

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Toledo67–77
  • Wvs Miami OH87–83
  • Wvs Ohio94–82
  • L@ Bowling Green62–81
  • L@ Ball State73–74

A week or more of rest.

Kent State

22-10 in 2025-26 overall · 15-5 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Illinois St58–79
  • Lvs Akron68–75
  • Wvs Ohio86–75
  • Wvs W Michigan86–78
  • W@ N Illinois102–76

A week or more of rest.