Mullins Center · at UMass · Conference game
Closing line
MASS -7.5✓ BUF covered by 11.5
MASS -7.5✓ BUF covered by 11.5Closing total151.5Over by 16.5
 BUF | This season | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| 13-11 | Record | 14-12 |
| 14-10 | ATS | 11-15 |
| 13-11 | O/U | 16-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BUF 78–83 MASS · ✗ MASS (67%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 29 | 39 | 18 | 86 |
| MASS | 34 | 34 | 14 | 82 |
1st half: BUF 29, MASS 34 (MASS by 5). The model had MASS by 2.8 and a total of 74.9 (actual 63).
Team stats
| BUF | MASS | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-54 48% | Field goals | 30-58 52% |
| 12-24 50% | 3-pointers | 9-25 36% |
| 22-30 73% | Free throws | 13-22 59% |
| 25 6 off | Rebounds | 35 11 off |
| 18 | Assists | 21 |
| 11 | Steals | 7 |
| 2 | Blocks | 2 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 16 | Fouls | 23 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| BUF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Talton Jr. G | 43 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Noah Batchelor G | 42 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 5-10 | 5-9 |
| Ryan Sabol G | 39 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 4-16 | 2-9 |
| Tim Oboh F | 35 | 15 | 9 | 1 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Angelo Brizzi G | 34 | 27 | 2 | 4 | 7-15 | 4-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kyle Jones G | 22 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Ezra McKenna F | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Omar Migues-Hibeljic, Daniel Shao, Matas Buteliauskas, Mikhali Pocknett, Aleksa Vlajic, Evan Romano, Daniel Freitag
| MASS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Hankins-Sanford F | 44 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 6-11 | 0-1 |
| Marcus Banks Jr. G | 36 | 24 | 3 | 3 | 9-16 | 6-13 |
| Danny Carbuccia G | 32 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 3-8 | 1-3 |
| Leonardo Bettiol F | 28 | 21 | 8 | 4 | 6-10 | 0-0 |
| Jayden Ndjigue G | 26 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| K'Jei Parker G | 31 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 5-10 | 2-7 |
| Dwayne Wimbley Jr. F | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Luka Damjanac F | 9 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Dimitri Clerc F | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Isaiah Placide G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Josh Engel, Donovan Brown, Rollie Castineyra, Bilal Osman, CJ Outlaw
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMASS -7.5
ModelMASS -4.9
Model edgeBUF +2.6
W BUF covered
Total
Market151.5
Model160.3
Model edgeOver 8.8
W Over
Projected score
BUF 77.7 · MASS 82.6
BUF 86 · MASS 82
Win probability
MASS 67%
1st half
Spread
MASS -2.8
MASS -5.0
Total
74.9
63 points
Projected score
BUF 36.1 · MASS 38.9
BUF 29 · MASS 34
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMASS -7.5
no move
CloseMASS -7.5
No change since the open
Total
Open158.5
▼ 7
Close151.5
Down 7 since the open
Moneyline
BUF +285 · MASS -360
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MASS -7.5 · unchangedmodel MASS -5
model MASS -5
Opened 158.5 · closed 151.5 · moved 7 downmodel 160.5
model 160.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| MASS | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
BUF 0–1 MASSMASS leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · BUF 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2025-26 | MASS 68 @ BUF 67 | BUF -1.5 | MASS W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Buffalo
24 games played
Straight up
13-11
54% wins
Against the spread
14-10
58% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-11
54% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USM | W 85-79 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 7 | vs GB | W 83-76 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ DEP | W 66-53 | +18.5 | W +31.5 | 153.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 18 | vs UVM | W 94-90 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 141.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 24 | vs VMI | W 78-70 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 26 | vs BUCK | W 73-71 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 29 | @ CAN | W 71-53 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 139.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 6 | vs SBU | L 69-77 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 9 | @ UMBC | W 83-79 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 14 | @ ECU | L 70-73 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 20 | @ WMU | W 88-71 | -2.5 | W +14.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 31 | @ NIU | W 81-67 | -6.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 3 | vs BALL | W 85-72 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 10 | @ OHIO | L 80-91 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | vs KENT | L 81-87 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 165.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 17 | @ M-OH | L 102-105 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | O 207 |
| Jan 20 | vs AKR | L 63-82 | +8.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 23 | vsMASS | L 67-68 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 27 | @ BGSU | W 89-78 | +7.5 | W +18.5 | 150.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 31 | vsOHIO | L 83-95 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 156.5 | O 178 |
| Feb 3 | vsM-OH | L 71-73 | +4.5 | W +2.5 | 165.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 7 | @ USA | L 69-81 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 11 | @BALL | W 63-53 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 141.5 | U 116 |
| Feb 17 | vsNIU | L 70-72 | -9.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | U 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+2.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+3.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
+31.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+5.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
+2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
+8.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
−2.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+0.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−1.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+14.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
+7.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+6.5
10
@OHIO
OHIOL 80-91
−6.5
13
vsKENT
KENTL 81-87
−3.5
17
@M-OH
M-OHL 102-105
+7.5
20
vsAKR
AKRL 63-82
−10.5
23
vsMASS
MASSL 67-68
−2.5
27
@BGSU
BGSUW 89-78
+18.5
31
vsOHIO
OHIOL 83-95
−14.5
3
vsM-OH
M-OHL 71-73
+2.5
7
@USA
USAL 69-81
−8.5
11
@BALL
BALLW 63-53
+11.5
17
vsNIU
NIUL 70-72
−11.5
covered 14didn’t cover 10avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+10.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+11.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
−34.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+42.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
−2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
−15.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
+1.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+16.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−3.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+8.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
−4.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+11.5
10
@OHIO
OHIOL 80-91
+14.5
13
vsKENT
KENTL 81-87
+2.5
17
@M-OH
M-OHL 102-105
+44.5
20
vsAKR
AKRL 63-82
−21.5
23
vsMASS
MASSL 67-68
−24.5
27
@BGSU
BGSUW 89-78
+16.5
31
vsOHIO
OHIOL 83-95
+21.5
3
vsM-OH
M-OHL 71-73
−21.5
7
@USA
USAL 69-81
+4.5
11
@BALL
BALLW 63-53
−25.5
17
vsNIU
NIUL 70-72
−3.5
over 13under 11avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin
UMass
26 games played
Straight up
14-12
54% wins
Against the spread
11-15
42% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-10
62% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MRSH | L 72-78 | -4.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 8 | vs UALB | W 83-62 | -9.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 13 | vs LEM | W 94-80 | -16.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 16 | vs CCSU | W 84-77 | -12.5 | L −5.5 | 144.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 21 | vs COFC | L 65-69 | +3.5 | L −0.5 | 161.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 22 | vsGB | L 75-79 | -5.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | O 154 |
| Nov 24 | vs ORST | W 73-65 | +3.5 | W +11.5 | 149.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 3 | vs HARV | W 78-71 | -5.5 | W +1.5 | 143.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 6 | vs UML | W 80-60 | -11.5 | W +8.5 | 155.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 10 | vs BC | W 76-74 | +1.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 13 | vs FSU | W 103-95 | +12.5 | W +20.5 | 165.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 20 | vsKENT | L 59-69 | +1.5 | L −8.5 | 163.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 30 | @ EMU | L 74-80 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 148.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 3 | vsBGSU | L 100-101 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 201 |
| Jan 6 | @OHIO | L 83-86 | +4.5 | W +1.5 | 160.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 10 | vsBALL | W 79-71 | -10.5 | L −2.5 | 147.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 13 | @WMU | W 85-82 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 157.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 17 | @NIU | L 68-70 | -8.5 | L −10.5 | 157.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 20 | vs TOL | W 84-82 | -2.5 | L −0.5 | 164.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 23 | @BUF | W 68-67 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 27 | @M-OH | L 84-86 | +9.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 31 | vsEMU | W 70-67 | -8.5 | L −5.5 | 148.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 3 | vs CMU | W 95-89 | -11.5 | L −5.5 | 152.5 | O 184 |
| Feb 7 | @ CCU | L 91-94 | -2.5 | L −5.5 | 147.5 | O 185 |
| Feb 13 | @AKR | L 92-99 | +12.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | O 191 |
| Feb 17 | vsM-OH | L 77-86 | +3.5 | L −5.5 | 163.5 | U 163 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMRSH
MRSHL 72-78
−10.5
8
vsUALB
UALBW 83-62
+11.5
13
vsLEM
LEMW 94-80
−2.5
16
vsCCSU
CCSUW 84-77
−5.5
21
vsCOFC
COFCL 65-69
−0.5
22
vsGB
GBL 75-79
−9.5
24
vsORST
ORSTW 73-65
+11.5
3
vsHARV
HARVW 78-71
+1.5
6
vsUML
UMLW 80-60
+8.5
10
vsBC
BCW 76-74
+3.5
13
vsFSU
FSUW 103-95
+20.5
20
vsKENT
KENTL 59-69
−8.5
30
@EMU
EMUL 74-80
−8.5
3
vsBGSU
BGSUL 100-101
+0.5
6
@OHIO
OHIOL 83-86
+1.5
10
vsBALL
BALLW 79-71
−2.5
13
@WMU
WMUW 85-82
−2.5
17
@NIU
NIUL 68-70
−10.5
20
vsTOL
TOLW 84-82
−0.5
23
@BUF
BUFW 68-67
+2.5
27
@M-OH
M-OHL 84-86
+7.5
31
vsEMU
EMUW 70-67
−5.5
3
vsCMU
CMUW 95-89
−5.5
7
@CCU
CCUL 91-94
−5.5
13
@AKR
AKRL 92-99
+5.5
17
vsM-OH
M-OHL 77-86
−5.5
covered 11didn’t cover 15avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMRSH
MRSHL 72-78
−2.5
8
vsUALB
UALBW 83-62
−10.5
13
vsLEM
LEMW 94-80
+20.5
16
vsCCSU
CCSUW 84-77
+16.5
21
vsCOFC
COFCL 65-69
−27.5
22
vsGB
GBL 75-79
+7.5
24
vsORST
ORSTW 73-65
−11.5
3
vsHARV
HARVW 78-71
+5.5
6
vsUML
UMLW 80-60
−15.5
10
vsBC
BCW 76-74
+6.5
13
vsFSU
FSUW 103-95
+32.5
20
vsKENT
KENTL 59-69
−35.5
30
@EMU
EMUL 74-80
+5.5
3
vsBGSU
BGSUL 100-101
+48.5
6
@OHIO
OHIOL 83-86
+8.5
10
vsBALL
BALLW 79-71
+2.5
13
@WMU
WMUW 85-82
+9.5
17
@NIU
NIUL 68-70
−19.5
20
vsTOL
TOLW 84-82
+1.5
23
@BUF
BUFW 68-67
−24.5
27
@M-OH
M-OHL 84-86
+5.5
31
vsEMU
EMUW 70-67
−11.5
3
vsCMU
CMUW 95-89
+31.5
7
@CCU
CCUL 91-94
+37.5
13
@AKR
AKRL 92-99
+27.5
17
vsM-OH
M-OHL 77-86
−0.5
over 16under 10avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Buffalo
13-11 overall · 5-8 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs N Illinois70–72
- W@ Ball State63–53
- L@ South Alabama69–81
- Lvs Miami OH71–73
- Lvs Ohio83–95
4 days since their last game.
UMass
14-12 overall · 6-8 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Miami OH77–86
- L@ Akron92–99
- L@ Coastal91–94
- Wvs C Michigan95–89
- Wvs E Michigan70–67
4 days since their last game.