Buffalo Bulls at Ohio Bobcats: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 10, 2:00 PM ETConvocation Center (OH) · at Ohio · Conference game

#237BUFBuffalo80final

Final

#128OHIOOhio91▲ winner

Closing lineOHIO -4.5✓ OHIO covered by 6.5

Closing total156.5Over by 14.5

Season records: Buffalo and Ohio
BUF	This season	OHIO
11-2	Record	7-7
10-3	ATS	6-8
7-6	O/U	7-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BUF 76–81 OHIO · ✓ OHIO (69%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BUF	47	33	80
OHIO	44	47	91

1st half: BUF 47, OHIO 44 (BUF by 3). The model had OHIO by 3.3 and a total of 73.5 (actual 91).

Team stats

BUF		OHIO
29-67 43%	Field goals	34-57 60%
8-25 32%	3-pointers	6-17 35%
14-22 64%	Free throws	17-20 85%
26 15 off	Rebounds	39 11 off
10	Assists	15
10	Steals	7
3	Blocks	4
11	Turnovers	18
18	Fouls	20
36	Points in paint	48
10	Fast-break points	7

Players

BUF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ryan Sabol G	37	17	5	2	4-15	2-9
Daniel Freitag G	35	16	3	1	6-14	1-4
Angelo Brizzi G	35	18	3	2	8-16	1-4
Noah Batchelor G	26	6	3	2	2-5	0-2
Tim Oboh F	8	4	1	0	2-3	0-0
Bench
Derrick Talton Jr. G	24	8	2	3	3-7	2-4
Ezra McKenna F	21	6	1	0	2-2	2-2
Mikhali Pocknett F	14	5	5	0	2-5	0-0

Did not play: Evan Romano, Daniel Shao, Aleksa Vlajic, Kyle Jones, Matas Buteliauskas, Omar Migues-Hibeljic

OHIO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jackson Paveletzke G	38	23	6	8	8-12	1-2
Aidan Hadaway F	34	27	10	2	11-17	3-6
Javan Simmons F	32	13	6	3	5-7	0-0
JJ Kelly G	31	13	4	0	6-10	0-3
Ajay Sheldon G	31	10	2	1	4-7	2-4
Bench
Jesse Burris G	12	0	0	1	0-3	0-2
Dior Conners G	12	4	1	0	0-1	0-0
Jalen Breath F	8	1	1	0	0-0	0-0
Kiir Kuany F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Zay Mosley, Carter Reese, Jordan Fisher, Chase Boals, Elijah Elliott, Ayden Evans

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	OHIO -4.5	OHIO -5.8	OHIO +1.3	W OHIO covered
Total	156.5	157.1	Over 0.6	W Over
Projected score	—	BUF 75.6 · OHIO 81.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OHIO -3.3	BUF -3.0
1H total	73.5	91
1H projected score	BUF 35.1 · OHIO 38.4	BUF 47 · OHIO 44

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF WLWWW	10-3	77%	5-1	2-2
OHIO WLWLL	6-8	43%	3-4	4-4

Venue/role: BUF away, as underdog; OHIO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OUOUO	7-6	54%	11-2
OHIO OUUUO	7-7	50%	7-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
OHIO	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

BUF 1–5 OHIOOHIO leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · OHIO has won the last 4 meetings · BUF 2-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 7, 2024-25	OHIO 88 @ BUF 79	BUF +12.5	BUF W
Mar 5, 2023-24	OHIO 78 @ BUF 66	BUF +11.5	OHIO W
Jan 30, 2023-24	BUF 70 @ OHIO 91	OHIO -13.5	OHIO W
Feb 14, 2022-23	BUF 61 @ OHIO 85	OHIO -4.5	OHIO W
Jan 3, 2022-23	OHIO 72 @ BUF 75	BUF -0.5	BUF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Buffalo

13 games played

Straight up

11-2

85% wins

Against the spread

10-3

77% covers · avg +5.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-6

54% overs · avg +3 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-285%

W W W W W W W L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-377%

W W W W W L W L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-654%

O O U O U U U O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUSM	W 85-79	-3.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 164
Nov 7	vsGB	W 83-76	-3.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 159
Nov 11	@DEP	W 66-53	+18.5	W +31.5	153.5	U 119
Nov 18	vsUVM	W 94-90	+1.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 184
Nov 24	vsVMI	W 78-70	-5.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 26	vsBUCK	W 73-71	-4.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 29	@CAN	W 71-53	-9.5	W +8.5	139.5	U 124
Dec 6	vsSBU	L 69-77	+5.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 146
Dec 9	@UMBC	W 83-79	-3.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 162
Dec 14	@ECU	L 70-73	+1.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 143
Dec 20	@WMU	W 88-71	-2.5	W +14.5	150.5	O 159
Dec 31	@NIU	W 81-67	-6.5	W +7.5	152.5	U 148
Jan 3	vsBALL	W 85-72	-6.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USM

W 85-79

+2.5

W 83-76

+3.5

DEP

W 66-53

+31.5

UVM

W 94-90

+5.5

VMI

W 78-70

+2.5

BUCK

W 73-71

−2.5

CAN

W 71-53

+8.5

SBU

L 69-77

−2.5

UMBC

W 83-79

+0.5

ECU

L 70-73

−1.5

WMU

W 88-71

+14.5

NIU

W 81-67

+7.5

BALL

W 85-72

+6.5

covered 10didn’t cover 3avg +5.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USM

W 85-79

+10.5

W 83-76

+11.5

DEP

W 66-53

−34.5

UVM

W 94-90

+42.5

VMI

W 78-70

−2.5

BUCK

W 73-71

−2.5

CAN

W 71-53

−15.5

SBU

L 69-77

+1.5

UMBC

W 83-79

+16.5

ECU

L 70-73

−3.5

WMU

W 88-71

+8.5

NIU

W 81-67

−4.5

BALL

W 85-72

+11.5

over 7under 6avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Ohio

14 games played

Straight up

7-7

50% wins

Against the spread

6-8

43% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-7

50% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-750%

L W L L L L L W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-843%

L W L W L L L W W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-750%

O U O O U O U U O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsARST	L 85-89	-3.5	L −7.5	159.5	O 174
Nov 6	vsILST	W 72-68	-1.5	W +2.5	161.5	U 140
Nov 11	@SMC	L 60-90	+17.5	L −12.5	144.5	O 150
Nov 15	@LOU	L 81-106	+31.5	W +6.5	174.5	O 187
Nov 19	vsBCU	L 73-76	-6.5	L −9.5	157.5	U 149
Nov 24	vsGMU	L 69-92	+7.5	L −15.5	142.5	O 161
Nov 25	vsLMU	L 58-70	+3.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 128
Dec 3	vsME	W 79-57	-12.5	W +9.5	138.5	U 136
Dec 6	vsMRSH	W 88-81	-3.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 169
Dec 13	vsSBU	W 88-83	+6.5	W +11.5	150.5	O 171
Dec 20	vsBGSU	L 58-68	+1.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 126
Dec 30	@CMU	W 80-64	-6.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 144
Jan 3	@EMU	W 68-67	-2.5	L −1.5	150.5	U 135
Jan 6	vsMASS	W 86-83	-4.5	L −1.5	160.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARST

L 85-89

−7.5

ILST

W 72-68

+2.5

SMC

L 60-90

−12.5

LOU

L 81-106

+6.5

BCU

L 73-76

−9.5

GMU

L 69-92

−15.5

LMU

L 58-70

−8.5

W 79-57

+9.5

MRSH

W 88-81

+3.5

SBU

W 88-83

+11.5

BGSU

L 58-68

−8.5

CMU

W 80-64

+9.5

EMU

W 68-67

−1.5

MASS

W 86-83

−1.5

covered 6didn’t cover 8avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARST

L 85-89

+14.5

ILST

W 72-68

−21.5

SMC

L 60-90

+5.5

LOU

L 81-106

+12.5

BCU

L 73-76

−8.5

GMU

L 69-92

+18.5

LMU

L 58-70

−16.5

W 79-57

−2.5

MRSH

W 88-81

+11.5

SBU

W 88-83

+20.5

BGSU

L 58-68

−27.5

CMU

W 80-64

−7.5

EMU

W 68-67

−15.5

MASS

W 86-83

+8.5

over 7under 7avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Buffalo Bulls at Ohio Bobcats

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Buffalo

Ohio

Buffalo

Ohio