Rocket Arena · Neutral site · Conference game · Conference tournament
Closing line
TOL -2.5✓ TOL covered by 7.5
TOL -2.5✓ TOL covered by 7.5Closing total158.5Under by 14.5
 MASS | This season | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| 16-15 | Record | 16-14 |
| 13-18 | ATS | 17-13 |
| 20-11 | O/U | 13-17 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MASS 81–83 TOL · ✓ TOL (58%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MASS | 34 | 33 | 67 |
| TOL | 43 | 34 | 77 |
1st half: MASS 34, TOL 43 (TOL by 9). The model had TOL by 1.2 and a total of 76.4 (actual 77).
Team stats
| MASS | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-63 41% | Field goals | 31-54 57% |
| 4-21 19% | 3-pointers | 7-20 35% |
| 11-21 52% | Free throws | 8-14 57% |
| 38 14 off | Rebounds | 31 3 off |
| 9 | Assists | 21 |
| 10 | Steals | 10 |
| 2 | Blocks | 5 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 14 |
Players
| MASS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Banks Jr. G | 35 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 3-12 | 3-11 |
| Danny Carbuccia G | 31 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 5-10 | 0-2 |
| Jayden Ndjigue G | 27 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| Leonardo Bettiol F | 26 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 8-12 | 0-0 |
| Daniel Hankins-Sanford F | 25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-8 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Dwayne Wimbley Jr. F | 19 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| K'Jei Parker G | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-4 |
| Dimitri Clerc F | 14 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Isaiah Placide G | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
Did not play: CJ Outlaw, Bilal Osman, Donovan Brown, Luka Damjanac, Josh Engel, Rollie Castineyra
| TOL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Wilson G | 38 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 8-9 | 1-2 |
| Leroy Blyden Jr. G | 37 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 5-15 | 2-7 |
| Sean Craig F | 35 | 15 | 11 | 2 | 5-6 | 1-2 |
| Austin Parks C | 28 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Mynor Strong G | 27 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 7-11 | 3-6 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylan Ouwinga F | 17 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Kyler Vanderjagt G | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Will James Jr. G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: London Praytor, Toby Nwokolo, Phoenix Glassnor, Tyler Ode, Chris Riddle
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTOL -2.5
no move
CloseTOL -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open158.5
no move
Close158.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
MASS +124 · TOL -148
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TOL -2.5 · unchangedmodel TOL -2
model TOL -2
Opened 158.5 · unchangedmodel 163.5
model 163.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TOL -2.5 | TOL -2.2 | MASS +0.3 | L TOL covered |
| Total | 158.5 | 163.6 | Over 5.1 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | MASS 80.7 · TOL 82.9 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | TOL -1.2 | TOL -9.0 |
| 1H total | 76.4 | 77 |
| 1H projected score | MASS 37.6 · TOL 38.8 | MASS 34 · TOL 43 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MASS | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% | 7-3 70% |
| TOL | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MASS 1–0 TOLMASS leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MASS 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2025-26 | TOL 82 @ MASS 84 | MASS -2.5 | TOL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UMass
31 games played
Straight up
16-15
52% wins
Against the spread
13-18
42% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
20-11
65% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MRSH | L 72-78 | -4.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 8 | vs UALB | W 83-62 | -9.5 | W +11.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 13 | vs LEM | W 94-80 | -16.5 | L −2.5 | 153.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 16 | vs CCSU | W 84-77 | -12.5 | L −5.5 | 144.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 21 | vs COFC | L 65-69 | +3.5 | L −0.5 | 161.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 22 | vs GB | L 75-79 | -5.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | O 154 |
| Nov 24 | vs ORST | W 73-65 | +3.5 | W +11.5 | 149.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 3 | vs HARV | W 78-71 | -5.5 | W +1.5 | 143.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 6 | vs UML | W 80-60 | -11.5 | W +8.5 | 155.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 10 | vs BC | W 76-74 | +1.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 13 | vs FSU | W 103-95 | +12.5 | W +20.5 | 165.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 20 | vs KENT | L 59-69 | +1.5 | L −8.5 | 163.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 30 | @ EMU | L 74-80 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 148.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 3 | vs BGSU | L 100-101 | +1.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 201 |
| Jan 6 | @ OHIO | L 83-86 | +4.5 | W +1.5 | 160.5 | O 169 |
| Jan 10 | vs BALL | W 79-71 | -10.5 | L −2.5 | 147.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 13 | @ WMU | W 85-82 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 157.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 17 | @ NIU | L 68-70 | -8.5 | L −10.5 | 157.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 20 | vsTOL | W 84-82 | -2.5 | L −0.5 | 164.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 23 | @ BUF | W 68-67 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 27 | @ M-OH | L 84-86 | +9.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 31 | vsEMU | W 70-67 | -8.5 | L −5.5 | 148.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 3 | vs CMU | W 95-89 | -11.5 | L −5.5 | 152.5 | O 184 |
| Feb 7 | @ CCU | L 91-94 | -2.5 | L −5.5 | 147.5 | O 185 |
| Feb 13 | @ AKR | L 92-99 | +12.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | O 191 |
| Feb 17 | vsM-OH | L 77-86 | +3.5 | L −5.5 | 163.5 | U 163 |
| Feb 21 | vsBUF | L 82-86 | -7.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 24 | @BALL | L 73-74 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | O 147 |
| Feb 28 | @BGSU | L 62-81 | +3.5 | L −15.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Mar 3 | vsOHIO | W 94-82 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 156.5 | O 176 |
| Mar 12 | vsM-OH | W 87-83 | +6.5 | W +10.5 | 161.5 | O 170 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMRSH
MRSHL 72-78
−10.5
8
vsUALB
UALBW 83-62
+11.5
13
vsLEM
LEMW 94-80
−2.5
16
vsCCSU
CCSUW 84-77
−5.5
21
vsCOFC
COFCL 65-69
−0.5
22
vsGB
GBL 75-79
−9.5
24
vsORST
ORSTW 73-65
+11.5
3
vsHARV
HARVW 78-71
+1.5
6
vsUML
UMLW 80-60
+8.5
10
vsBC
BCW 76-74
+3.5
13
vsFSU
FSUW 103-95
+20.5
20
vsKENT
KENTL 59-69
−8.5
30
@EMU
EMUL 74-80
−8.5
3
vsBGSU
BGSUL 100-101
+0.5
6
@OHIO
OHIOL 83-86
+1.5
10
vsBALL
BALLW 79-71
−2.5
13
@WMU
WMUW 85-82
−2.5
17
@NIU
NIUL 68-70
−10.5
20
vsTOL
TOLW 84-82
−0.5
23
@BUF
BUFW 68-67
+2.5
27
@M-OH
M-OHL 84-86
+7.5
31
vsEMU
EMUW 70-67
−5.5
3
vsCMU
CMUW 95-89
−5.5
7
@CCU
CCUL 91-94
−5.5
13
@AKR
AKRL 92-99
+5.5
17
vsM-OH
M-OHL 77-86
−5.5
21
vsBUF
BUFL 82-86
−11.5
24
@BALL
BALLL 73-74
−4.5
28
@BGSU
BGSUL 62-81
−15.5
3
vsOHIO
OHIOW 94-82
+10.5
12
vsM-OH
M-OHW 87-83
+10.5
covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMRSH
MRSHL 72-78
−2.5
8
vsUALB
UALBW 83-62
−10.5
13
vsLEM
LEMW 94-80
+20.5
16
vsCCSU
CCSUW 84-77
+16.5
21
vsCOFC
COFCL 65-69
−27.5
22
vsGB
GBL 75-79
+7.5
24
vsORST
ORSTW 73-65
−11.5
3
vsHARV
HARVW 78-71
+5.5
6
vsUML
UMLW 80-60
−15.5
10
vsBC
BCW 76-74
+6.5
13
vsFSU
FSUW 103-95
+32.5
20
vsKENT
KENTL 59-69
−35.5
30
@EMU
EMUL 74-80
+5.5
3
vsBGSU
BGSUL 100-101
+48.5
6
@OHIO
OHIOL 83-86
+8.5
10
vsBALL
BALLW 79-71
+2.5
13
@WMU
WMUW 85-82
+9.5
17
@NIU
NIUL 68-70
−19.5
20
vsTOL
TOLW 84-82
+1.5
23
@BUF
BUFW 68-67
−24.5
27
@M-OH
M-OHL 84-86
+5.5
31
vsEMU
EMUW 70-67
−11.5
3
vsCMU
CMUW 95-89
+31.5
7
@CCU
CCUL 91-94
+37.5
13
@AKR
AKRL 92-99
+27.5
17
vsM-OH
M-OHL 77-86
−0.5
21
vsBUF
BUFL 82-86
+16.5
24
@BALL
BALLL 73-74
+3.5
28
@BGSU
BGSUL 62-81
−7.5
3
vsOHIO
OHIOW 94-82
+19.5
12
vsM-OH
M-OHW 87-83
+8.5
over 20under 11avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Toledo
30 games played
Straight up
16-14
53% wins
Against the spread
17-13
57% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-17
43% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USA | L 74-76 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 8 | vsMRSH | L 73-85 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 11 | @ WRST | W 81-71 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 159.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 15 | vs DETM | W 90-83 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | vs YSU | W 92-75 | -1.5 | W +15.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 24 | vs TROY | W 75-68 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs BEL | L 72-87 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 6 | @ OAK | L 97-98 | +4.5 | W +3.5 | 166.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 13 | @ RMU | L 70-75 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 16 | @ MSU | L 69-92 | +23.5 | W +0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 30 | vsWMU | W 84-79 | -10.5 | L −5.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 3 | @CMU | W 78-75 | -7.5 | L −4.5 | 158.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 6 | @NIU | W 75-61 | -7.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 9 | vsM-OH | L 73-87 | -1.5 | L −15.5 | 166.5 | U 160 |
| Jan 13 | vsOHIO | W 101-85 | -2.5 | W +13.5 | 161.5 | O 186 |
| Jan 16 | @KENT | L 84-87 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 168.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 20 | @MASS | L 82-84 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 164.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 24 | vsBGSU | W 73-72 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 27 | @AKR | L 81-91 | +12.5 | W +2.5 | 168.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 31 | vsBALL | W 73-55 | -8.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | U 128 |
| Feb 3 | vsKENT | L 72-75 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 161.5 | U 147 |
| Feb 7 | @ JMU | L 71-73 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 11 | @WMU | W 90-79 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 14 | @BGSU | L 70-80 | +3.5 | L −6.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Feb 21 | vsEMU | W 94-75 | -8.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 24 | vsNIU | W 79-69 | -12.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Feb 28 | @OHIO | W 79-67 | +1.5 | W +13.5 | 158.5 | U 146 |
| Mar 3 | @M-OH | L 72-74 | +7.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | U 146 |
| Mar 6 | vsBUF | W 99-78 | -5.5 | W +15.5 | 155.5 | O 177 |
| Mar 12 | vsBGSU | W 77-76 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−4.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−14.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
+15.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
−3.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+15.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
+9.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−10.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+3.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−6.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+0.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
−5.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 78-75
−4.5
6
@NIU
NIUW 75-61
+6.5
9
vsM-OH
M-OHL 73-87
−15.5
13
vsOHIO
OHIOW 101-85
+13.5
16
@KENT
KENTL 84-87
+2.5
20
@MASS
MASSL 82-84
+0.5
24
vsBGSU
BGSUW 73-72
+2.5
27
@AKR
AKRL 81-91
+2.5
31
vsBALL
BALLW 73-55
+9.5
3
vsKENT
KENTL 72-75
−1.5
7
@JMU
JMUL 71-73
−3.5
11
@WMU
WMUW 90-79
+4.5
14
@BGSU
BGSUL 70-80
−6.5
21
vsEMU
EMUW 94-75
+10.5
24
vsNIU
NIUW 79-69
−2.5
28
@OHIO
OHIOW 79-67
+13.5
3
@M-OH
M-OHL 72-74
+5.5
6
vsBUF
BUFW 99-78
+15.5
12
vsBGSU
BGSUW 77-76
−0.5
covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−0.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−2.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
−7.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
+13.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+6.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
−16.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−4.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+28.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−9.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+10.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
+2.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 78-75
−5.5
6
@NIU
NIUW 75-61
−25.5
9
vsM-OH
M-OHL 73-87
−6.5
13
vsOHIO
OHIOW 101-85
+24.5
16
@KENT
KENTL 84-87
+2.5
20
@MASS
MASSL 82-84
+1.5
24
vsBGSU
BGSUW 73-72
−10.5
27
@AKR
AKRL 81-91
+3.5
31
vsBALL
BALLW 73-55
−18.5
3
vsKENT
KENTL 72-75
−14.5
7
@JMU
JMUL 71-73
−9.5
11
@WMU
WMUW 90-79
+14.5
14
@BGSU
BGSUL 70-80
−0.5
21
vsEMU
EMUW 94-75
+23.5
24
vsNIU
NIUW 79-69
−2.5
28
@OHIO
OHIOW 79-67
−12.5
3
@M-OH
M-OHL 72-74
−16.5
6
vsBUF
BUFW 99-78
+21.5
12
vsBGSU
BGSUW 77-76
+2.5
over 13under 17avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UMass
16-15 overall · 8-11 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Miami OH87–83
- Wvs Ohio94–82
- L@ Bowling Green62–81
- L@ Ball State73–74
- Lvs Buffalo82–86
1 day since their last game.
Toledo
16-14 overall · 12-7 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Bowling Green77–76
- Wvs Buffalo99–78
- L@ Miami OH72–74
- W@ Ohio79–67
- Wvs N Illinois79–69
1 day since their last game.