1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 15
  3. RGV @ DAY
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 15

UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at Dayton Flyers

UD Arena · at Dayton
#287RGVUT Rio Grande
@
#91DAYDayton
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
RGVThis seasonDAY
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAY 80–63 · win probability DAY 93%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 143.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAY has more of the edges

RGV 2, DAY 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
DAYBig
RGV offense vs DAY defense
Offense 297th of 366 against a defense 57th, on the model’s ratings
DAYBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: RGV 28.9, DAY 46.1. Allowed: RGV 39.0, DAY 35.5
RGVBig
Three-pointers
RGV hits 36.8% and allows 30.4%; DAY hits 33.9% and allows 35.4%. Threes are 43.7% and 41.4% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
RGV has played the 274th-hardest schedule, DAY the 90th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DAYBig
DAY offense vs RGV defense
Offense 109th of 366 against a defense 265th, on the model’s ratings
DAYBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: RGV 18.5%, DAY 16.9%. Forced: RGV 16.2%, DAY 21.0%
RGVBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: RGV 54.8 and allows 47.8; DAY 51.6 and allows 51.0
DAYSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: RGV 28.2%, DAY 26.9%. Defensive: RGV 67.9%, DAY 71.2%
DAYSmall
Home court
DAY at home. This season: DAY 0-0 at home, RGV 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: RGV 9%, DAY 31%. Transfers in: RGV 3, DAY 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: RGV plays 67.3 a game (268th fastest), DAY 68.3 (213th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—DAY -17.0—
Total—143.8—
Projected score—RGV 63.4 · DAY 80.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadDAY -10.0—
1H total67.3—
1H projected scoreRGV 28.6 · DAY 38.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Dayton has the better starters

Position by position: UT Rio Grande 0, Dayton 2, even 3
UT Rio GrandeBetterDayton
G D. Pryor TR2.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 41
DAYSmall
G Z. Lowery TR8.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.7 ast Score 63
G A. Wright2.8 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 2
DAYBig
G L. Joseph TR7.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 78
G J. Posey TR4.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.2 ast Score 75
Even
F G. Randall TR11.5 pts · 6.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 65
G B. Knight TR2.4 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F A. L'Etang11.9 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 89
G L. Ramirez0 pts · 1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F J. Simon5.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 63
UT Rio GrandeBetterDayton
RGV offense297th of 366 · -9.2
DAYBig
DAY defense57th of 366 · +1.4
RGV defense265th of 366 · -6.8
DAYBig
DAY offense109th of 366 · -1.7
Backcourt-4.0 · 5 players
DAYBig
Backcourt+0.8 · 2 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+3.5 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestRGV betterDAY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UT Rio Grande
Guards
D. Pryor18 min · TRA. Wright15 minJ. Posey12 min · TRB. Knight8 min · TRL. Ramirez2 minJ. BlairNew
Forwards
T. WrightNewJ. HillNewB. CrawfordNewK. CorbittNew
Dayton
Guards
Z. Lowery23 min · TRL. Joseph18 min · TRT. Perry17 min · TRE. Dickey2 minM. Grant1 minW. Maxwell1 min
Forwards
G. Randall32 min · TRA. L'Etang26 minJ. Simon18 minM. Thomas9 minD. Friery6 minJ. HaynesNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
RGVDAY
Scoring
73.7 #210Points per game74.1 #193
1.10 #137Points per possession1.09 #167
67.3 #268Pace (possessions)68.3 #213
Shooting
54.8 #44Effective FG%51.6 #168
36.8 #353-point %33.9 #182
43.7 #953-point attempt rate41.4 #142
28.9 #332Free throw rate46.1 #2
Possessions
18.5 #296Turnover rate16.9 #198
28.2 #257Offensive rebound rate26.9 #298
15.7 #58Assists per game14.2 #134
Defense
70.6 #67Points allowed69.3 #50
1.05 #86Points allowed per possession1.01 #37
47.8 #38Opponent effective FG%51.0 #164
30.4 #16Opponent 3-point %35.4 #270
16.2 #210Turnovers forced21.0 #11
67.9 #266Defensive rebound rate71.2 #94
5.9 #243Steals per game8.2 #31
2.8 #266Blocks per game3.9 #90
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UT Rio Grande

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 15-9 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs McNeese80–84
  • Wvs Nicholls86–68
  • Wvs N'Western St74–62
  • Wvs East Texas A&M63–55
  • L@ McNeese68–75

A week or more of rest.

Dayton

25-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-7 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois St55–61
  • W@ UNC Wilmington80–61
  • W@ Bradley80–66
  • Lvs VCU62–70
  • Wvs Saint Louis70–69

A week or more of rest.