East Carolina Pirates at South Florida Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 14, 7:00 PM ETYuengling Center · at South Florida · Conference game

Final

Closing lineUSF -18.5✓ ECU covered by 7.5

Closing total158.5Under by 5.5

Season records: East Carolina and South Florida
ECU	This season	USF
4-11	Record	9-6
4-11	ATS	7-8
7-8	O/U	9-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ECU 72–89 USF · ✓ USF (94%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ECU	31	40	71
USF	44	38	82

1st half: ECU 31, USF 44 (USF by 13). The model had USF by 10.4 and a total of 75.4 (actual 75).

Team stats

ECU		USF
25-61 41%	Field goals	25-65 38%
6-21 29%	3-pointers	12-31 39%
15-25 60%	Free throws	20-26 77%
40 9 off	Rebounds	41 11 off
10	Assists	19
4	Steals	9
7	Blocks	4
11	Turnovers	7
17	Fouls	20
30	Points in paint	24
4	Fast-break points	13

Players

ECU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jordan Riley G	39	25	10	2	9-23	0-2
Giovanni Emejuru C	33	17	10	0	6-6	0-0
Tybo Bailey G	28	5	3	1	1-6	0-3
Isaiah Mbeng G	23	6	2	1	2-8	2-7
Reid Cason F	18	2	4	0	1-2	0-0
Bench
Corey Caulker G	25	3	3	4	1-3	1-2
Demitri Gardner G	17	3	1	2	1-4	1-1
Eli DeLaurier C	12	10	0	0	4-8	2-5
Luke Davis F	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Patrick D'Arcy G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Daithi Quinn, Vito Perkovic, Jake Baker, Ladontae Felton, Grant Smith, Trevion LaBeaux, Jayshayne Woodard

USF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Wes Enis G	31	14	1	5	4-13	3-9
Josh Omojafo G	25	18	6	4	5-8	2-2
Izaiyah Nelson F	24	14	7	1	5-8	0-0
Joseph Pinion G	23	9	5	1	2-11	2-7
CJ Brown G	21	12	4	3	4-13	1-5
Bench
Devin Haid G	20	11	6	0	4-6	3-4
Adriel Nyorha G	16	0	4	3	0-2	0-2
Daimion Collins F	16	3	1	0	1-1	1-1
Isaiah Jones F	15	1	4	1	0-0	0-0
Tristan Beckford G	5	0	0	1	0-1	0-1
Gavin Hightower G	4	0	1	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Caleb Sanders, De'Ante Green, Xavier Brown, Onyx Nnani

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	USF -18.5	USF -17.7	ECU +0.8	W ECU covered
Total	158.5	161.0	Over 2.5	L Under
Projected score	—	ECU 71.6 · USF 89.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	USF -10.4	USF -13.0
1H total	75.4	75
1H projected score	ECU 32.5 · USF 42.9	ECU 31 · USF 44

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ECU WLLLW	4-11	27%	0-4	2-6
USF WWLLW	7-8	47%	4-2	5-6

Venue/role: ECU away, as underdog; USF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ECU UOOUO	7-8	47%	4-11
USF OOOUO	9-6	60%	9-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ECU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
USF	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

ECU 4–5 USFUSF leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · ECU 4-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 25, 2024-25	USF 55 @ ECU 64	ECU -4.5	ECU W
Dec 31, 2024-25	ECU 69 @ USF 75	USF -1.5	USF W
Mar 15, 2023-24	ECU 59 vs USF 81	USF -8.5	USF W
Jan 31, 2023-24	USF 71 @ ECU 60	ECU -1.5	USF W
Mar 9, 2022-23	ECU 73 vs USF 58	USF -3.5	ECU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

East Carolina

15 games played

Straight up

4-11

27% wins

Against the spread

4-11

27% covers · avg −7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-8

47% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-1127%

W L L L L L W L L W W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-1127%

L L L L L W L L L W W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-847%

O O U U O U U O U U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsGASO	W 92-89	-5.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 181
Nov 8	@RICH	L 72-87	+5.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 18	@UNCW	L 60-85	+6.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsCHSO	L 65-77	-13.5	L −25.5	157.5	U 142
Nov 25	vsMSU	L 56-89	+19.5	L −13.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 27	vsSBU	L 58-67	+10.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 125
Dec 2	vsUMES	W 68-56	-12.5	L −0.5	127.5	U 124
Dec 6	vsUNCG	L 78-82	-7.5	L −11.5	139.5	O 160
Dec 11	vsAPP	L 54-67	-4.5	L −17.5	130.5	U 121
Dec 14	vsBUF	W 73-70	-1.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 143
Dec 17	vsPRES	W 74-53	-4.5	W +16.5	131.5	U 127
Dec 22	@UNC	L 51-99	+25.5	L −22.5	144.5	O 150
Dec 31	vsTULN	L 70-79	+1.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 149
Jan 7	@TEM	L 67-75	+7.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 142
Jan 11	vsUAB	L 85-87	+7.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 172

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GASO

W 92-89

−2.5

RICH

L 72-87

−9.5

UNCW

L 60-85

−18.5

CHSO

L 65-77

−25.5

MSU

L 56-89

−13.5

SBU

L 58-67

+1.5

UMES

W 68-56

−0.5

UNCG

L 78-82

−11.5

APP

L 54-67

−17.5

BUF

W 73-70

+1.5

PRES

W 74-53

+16.5

UNC

L 51-99

−22.5

TULN

L 70-79

−7.5

TEM

L 67-75

−0.5

UAB

L 85-87

+5.5

covered 4didn’t cover 11avg −7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GASO

W 92-89

+29.5

RICH

L 72-87

+15.5

UNCW

L 60-85

−0.5

CHSO

L 65-77

−15.5

MSU

L 56-89

+4.5

SBU

L 58-67

−19.5

UMES

W 68-56

−3.5

UNCG

L 78-82

+20.5

APP

L 54-67

−9.5

BUF

W 73-70

−3.5

PRES

W 74-53

−4.5

UNC

L 51-99

+5.5

TULN

L 70-79

+3.5

TEM

L 67-75

−1.5

UAB

L 85-87

+21.5

over 7under 8avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

South Florida

15 games played

Straight up

9-6

60% wins

Against the spread

7-8

47% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-6

60% overs · avg +7 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-660%

W L W W L L W L W W L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-847%

W L W W L L L L W L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

9-660%

O O U O O U O U U U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFAMU	W 102-67	-25.5	W +9.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 8	vsGW	L 95-99	-1.5	L −5.5	159.5	O 194
Nov 12	vsCOPP	W 100-50	-34.5	W +15.5	167.5	U 150
Nov 16	@KENN	W 108-89	-7.5	W +11.5	177.5	O 197
Nov 19	@OKST	L 95-103	+3.5	L −4.5	177.5	O 198
Nov 26	vsVCU	L 66-78	+1.5	L −10.5	172.5	U 144
Nov 27	vsWKU	W 97-91	-7.5	L −1.5	167.5	O 188
Nov 28	vsCSU	L 68-83	-2.5	L −17.5	155.5	U 151
Dec 4	vsUSU	W 74-61	-2.5	W +10.5	162.5	U 135
Dec 10	vsCOFC	W 81-75	-13.5	L −7.5	160.5	U 156
Dec 17	@ALA	L 93-104	+14.5	W +3.5	178.5	O 197
Dec 21	vsUMBC	W 94-69	-22.5	W +2.5	160.5	O 163
Jan 4	vsUAB	L 106-109	-8.5	L −11.5	163.5	O 215
Jan 7	@UNT	W 74-70	-4.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 144
Jan 10	@TLSA	W 93-78	+1.5	W +16.5	163.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAMU

W 102-67

+9.5

L 95-99

−5.5

COPP

W 100-50

+15.5

KENN

W 108-89

+11.5

OKST

L 95-103

−4.5

VCU

L 66-78

−10.5

WKU

W 97-91

−1.5

CSU

L 68-83

−17.5

USU

W 74-61

+10.5

COFC

W 81-75

−7.5

ALA

L 93-104

+3.5

UMBC

W 94-69

+2.5

UAB

L 106-109

−11.5

UNT

W 74-70

−0.5

TLSA

W 93-78

+16.5

covered 7didn’t cover 8avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAMU

W 102-67

+15.5

L 95-99

+34.5

COPP

W 100-50

−17.5

KENN

W 108-89

+19.5

OKST

L 95-103

+20.5

VCU

L 66-78

−28.5

WKU

W 97-91

+20.5

CSU

L 68-83

−4.5

USU

W 74-61

−27.5

COFC

W 81-75

−4.5

ALA

L 93-104

+18.5

UMBC

W 94-69

+2.5

UAB

L 106-109

+51.5

UNT

W 74-70

−3.5

TLSA

W 93-78

+7.5

over 9under 6avg +7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

East Carolina Pirates at South Florida Bulls

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

East Carolina

South Florida

East Carolina

South Florida