Yuengling Center · at South Florida
Closing line
USF -22.5✓ USF covered by 2.5
USF -22.5✓ USF covered by 2.5Closing total160.5Over by 2.5
 UMBC | This season | USF |
|---|---|---|
| 4-5 | Record | 6-5 |
| 4-5 | ATS | 5-6 |
| 3-6 | O/U | 6-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UMBC 70–90 USF · ✓ USF (96%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMBC | 29 | 40 | 69 |
| USF | 45 | 49 | 94 |
1st half: UMBC 29, USF 45 (USF by 16). The model had USF by 11.9 and a total of 75.2 (actual 74).
Team stats
| UMBC | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-59 44% | Field goals | 35-68 51% |
| 5-17 29% | 3-pointers | 11-26 42% |
| 12-16 75% | Free throws | 13-18 72% |
| 31 8 off | Rebounds | 38 12 off |
| 14 | Assists | 23 |
| 4 | Steals | 10 |
| 3 | Blocks | 2 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 48 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 14 |
Players
| UMBC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ace Valentine G | 33 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 4-7 | 2-4 |
| DJ Armstrong Jr. G | 30 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 3-10 | 3-8 |
| Jah'Likai King G | 29 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 8-14 | 0-2 |
| Josh Odunowo F | 20 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Riley Jacobs F | 15 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Caden Diggs F | 23 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-1 |
| Daylon Dickerson F | 19 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Jose Roberto Tanchyn F | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Cougar Downing G | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Paul Greene F | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Tim Eze F | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jake Stout, Devin Ceaser, Saahil Thakkar, Regimantas Ciunys
| USF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Pinion G | 35 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 9-16 | 7-12 |
| Izaiyah Nelson F | 25 | 20 | 11 | 0 | 9-12 | 0-1 |
| CJ Brown G | 24 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 1-9 | 0-2 |
| Adriel Nyorha G | 23 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 3-6 | 1-1 |
| Josh Omojafo G | 23 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Daimion Collins F | 18 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Devin Haid G | 17 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| Tristan Beckford G | 16 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Isaiah Jones F | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Gavin Hightower G | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Caleb Sanders F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Xavier Brown, De'Ante Green, Wes Enis, Onyx Nnani
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUSF -21.5
1 → USF
CloseUSF -22.5
1 pt toward USF
Total
Open158.5
▲ 2
Close160.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
UMBC +2000 · USF -6500
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened USF -21.5 · closed USF -22.5 · moved 1 toward USFmodel USF -20
model USF -20
Opened 158.5 · closed 160.5 · moved 2 upmodel 160.5 matches the line
model 160.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | USF -22.5 | USF -20.0 | UMBC +2.5 | L USF covered |
| Total | 160.5 | 160.7 | Over 0.2 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | UMBC 70.4 · USF 90.3 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | USF -11.9 | USF -16.0 |
| 1H total | 75.2 | 74 |
| 1H projected score | UMBC 31.7 · USF 43.5 | UMBC 29 · USF 45 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMBClast 9 | 4-5 44% | 4-5 44% | 3-6 33% |
| USF | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UMBC
9 games played
Straight up
4-5
44% wins
Against the spread
4-5
44% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-6
33% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | @ DAY | L 71-77 | +25.5 | W +19.5 | 154.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 11 | @ MORG | W 81-79 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 162.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 16 | vs WAG | W 71-70 | -6.5 | L −5.5 | 140.5 | O 141 |
| Nov 19 | @ GW | L 52-89 | +22.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 29 | vs DSU | W 71-57 | -13.5 | W +0.5 | 138.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 3 | @ GTWN | L 81-90 | +19.5 | W +10.5 | 149.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 6 | @ BUCK | W 73-66 | +1.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 9 | vs BUF | L 79-83 | +3.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 12 | vs ARMY | L 60-63 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 146.5 | U 123 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@DAY
DAYL 71-77
+19.5
11
@MORG
MORGW 81-79
−2.5
16
vsWAG
WAGW 71-70
−5.5
19
@GW
GWL 52-89
−14.5
29
vsDSU
DSUW 71-57
+0.5
3
@GTWN
GTWNL 81-90
+10.5
6
@BUCK
BUCKW 73-66
+8.5
9
vsBUF
BUFL 79-83
−0.5
12
vsARMY
ARMYL 60-63
−10.5
covered 4didn’t cover 5avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@DAY
DAYL 71-77
−6.5
11
@MORG
MORGW 81-79
−2.5
16
vsWAG
WAGW 71-70
+0.5
19
@GW
GWL 52-89
−19.5
29
vsDSU
DSUW 71-57
−10.5
3
@GTWN
GTWNL 81-90
+21.5
6
@BUCK
BUCKW 73-66
−4.5
9
vsBUF
BUFL 79-83
+16.5
12
vsARMY
ARMYL 60-63
−23.5
over 3under 6avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
South Florida
11 games played
Straight up
6-5
55% wins
Against the spread
5-6
45% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-5
55% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs FAMU | W 102-67 | -25.5 | W +9.5 | 153.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 8 | vsGW | L 95-99 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 159.5 | O 194 |
| Nov 12 | vs COPP | W 100-50 | -34.5 | W +15.5 | 167.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 16 | @ KENN | W 108-89 | -7.5 | W +11.5 | 177.5 | O 197 |
| Nov 19 | @ OKST | L 95-103 | +3.5 | L −4.5 | 177.5 | O 198 |
| Nov 26 | vs VCU | L 66-78 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 172.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 27 | vs WKU | W 97-91 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 167.5 | O 188 |
| Nov 28 | vs CSU | L 68-83 | -2.5 | L −17.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 4 | vs USU | W 74-61 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 162.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 10 | vs COFC | W 81-75 | -13.5 | L −7.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 17 | @ ALA | L 93-104 | +14.5 | W +3.5 | 178.5 | O 197 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsFAMU
FAMUW 102-67
+9.5
8
vsGW
GWL 95-99
−5.5
12
vsCOPP
COPPW 100-50
+15.5
16
@KENN
KENNW 108-89
+11.5
19
@OKST
OKSTL 95-103
−4.5
26
vsVCU
VCUL 66-78
−10.5
27
vsWKU
WKUW 97-91
−1.5
28
vsCSU
CSUL 68-83
−17.5
4
vsUSU
USUW 74-61
+10.5
10
vsCOFC
COFCW 81-75
−7.5
17
@ALA
ALAL 93-104
+3.5
covered 5didn’t cover 6avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFAMU
FAMUW 102-67
+15.5
8
vsGW
GWL 95-99
+34.5
12
vsCOPP
COPPW 100-50
−17.5
16
@KENN
KENNW 108-89
+19.5
19
@OKST
OKSTL 95-103
+20.5
26
vsVCU
VCUL 66-78
−28.5
27
vsWKU
WKUW 97-91
+20.5
28
vsCSU
CSUL 68-83
−4.5
4
vsUSU
USUW 74-61
−27.5
10
vsCOFC
COFCW 81-75
−4.5
17
@ALA
ALAL 93-104
+18.5
over 6under 5avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UMBC
4-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · America East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Army60–63
- Lvs Buffalo79–83
- W@ Bucknell73–66
- L@ Georgetown81–90
- Wvs Delaware St71–57
A week or more of rest.
South Florida
6-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Alabama93–104
- Wvs Charleston81–75
- Wvs Utah State74–61
- Lvs Colorado St68–83
- Wvs Western KY97–91
4 days since their last game.