KeyBank Center · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
LOU -3.5✓ LOU covered by 0.5
LOU -3.5✓ LOU covered by 0.5Closing total160.5Over by 1.5
 USF | This season | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| 24-8 | Record | 23-10 |
| 18-14 | ATS | 15-18 |
| 14-18 | O/U | 13-20 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USF 79–86 LOU · ✓ LOU (73%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USF | 27 | 52 | 79 |
| LOU | 37 | 46 | 83 |
1st half: USF 27, LOU 37 (LOU by 10). The model had LOU by 4.1 and a total of 77.1 (actual 64).
Team stats
| USF | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-77 39% | Field goals | 28-52 54% |
| 5-33 15% | 3-pointers | 13-25 52% |
| 14-16 88% | Free throws | 14-25 56% |
| 37 18 off | Rebounds | 41 11 off |
| 14 | Assists | 17 |
| 15 | Steals | 5 |
| 3 | Blocks | 3 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 22 |
| 21 | Fouls | 17 |
| 44 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 18 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| USF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Pinion G | 38 | 27 | 7 | 6 | 10-25 | 5-14 |
| Izaiyah Nelson F | 35 | 22 | 9 | 1 | 9-17 | 0-2 |
| Wes Enis G | 32 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2-15 | 0-11 |
| Josh Omojafo G | 23 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| CJ Brown G | 19 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Isaiah Jones F | 27 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Gavin Hightower G | 23 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| Daimion Collins F | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Adriel Nyorha, Tristan Beckford, Caleb Sanders, Xavier Brown, Devin Haid, Onyx Nnani, De'Ante Green
| LOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Conwell G | 37 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 5-14 | 2-7 |
| J'Vonne Hadley G | 33 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Adrian Wooley G | 30 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-3 |
| Isaac McKneely G | 28 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 8-11 | 7-10 |
| Vangelis Zougris F | 10 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Sananda Fru F | 25 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Kobe Rodgers G | 20 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Khani Rooths F | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Aly Khalifa C | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Will Hanke, Mouhamed Camara, Cole Sherman, Spencer Legg, London Johnson, Mikel Brown Jr., Kasean Pryor
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLOU -7.5
4 → USF
CloseLOU -3.5
4 pts toward USF
Total
Open163.5
▼ 3
Close160.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
USF +142 · LOU -170
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LOU -7.5 · closed LOU -3.5 · moved 4 toward USFmodel LOU -7
model LOU -7
Opened 163.5 · closed 160.5 · moved 3 downmodel 165
model 165
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | LOU -3.5 | LOU -7.2 | LOU +3.7 | W LOU covered |
| Total | 160.5 | 165.1 | Over 4.6 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | USF 79 · LOU 86.1 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | LOU -4.1 | LOU -10.0 |
| 1H total | 77.1 | 64 |
| 1H projected score | USF 36.5 · LOU 40.6 | USF 27 · LOU 37 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USF | 10-0 100% | 8-2 80% | 1-9 10% |
| LOU | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
South Florida
32 games played
Straight up
24-8
75% wins
Against the spread
18-14
56% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-18
44% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs FAMU | W 102-67 | -25.5 | W +9.5 | 153.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 8 | vs GW | L 95-99 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 159.5 | O 194 |
| Nov 12 | vs COPP | W 100-50 | -34.5 | W +15.5 | 167.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 16 | @ KENN | W 108-89 | -7.5 | W +11.5 | 177.5 | O 197 |
| Nov 19 | @ OKST | L 95-103 | +3.5 | L −4.5 | 177.5 | O 198 |
| Nov 26 | vs VCU | L 66-78 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 172.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 27 | vs WKU | W 97-91 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 167.5 | O 188 |
| Nov 28 | vs CSU | L 68-83 | -2.5 | L −17.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 4 | vs USU | W 74-61 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 162.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 10 | vs COFC | W 81-75 | -13.5 | L −7.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 17 | @ ALA | L 93-104 | +14.5 | W +3.5 | 178.5 | O 197 |
| Dec 21 | vs UMBC | W 94-69 | -22.5 | W +2.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 4 | vs UAB | L 106-109 | -8.5 | L −11.5 | 163.5 | O 215 |
| Jan 7 | @ UNT | W 74-70 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | @ TLSA | W 93-78 | +1.5 | W +16.5 | 163.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 14 | vs ECU | W 82-71 | -18.5 | L −7.5 | 158.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 18 | vs WICH | L 85-86 | -7.5 | L −8.5 | 158.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 22 | @UAB | W 82-69 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 168.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 25 | vs FAU | W 89-75 | -5.5 | W +8.5 | 166.5 | U 164 |
| Jan 28 | @ TULN | W 97-83 | -8.5 | W +5.5 | 158.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 31 | @ TEM | L 78-79 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 4 | vs UTSA | W 109-88 | -23.5 | L −2.5 | 164.5 | O 197 |
| Feb 8 | vsTLSA | W 80-74 | -4.5 | W +1.5 | 170.5 | U 154 |
| Feb 11 | @WICH | W 66-58 | -2.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | U 124 |
| Feb 15 | @FAU | W 83-81 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 164 |
| Feb 19 | vs MEM | W 87-66 | -9.5 | W +11.5 | 163.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 25 | @ RICE | W 75-56 | -11.5 | W +7.5 | 157.5 | U 131 |
| Mar 1 | vsTULN | W 90-62 | -15.5 | W +12.5 | 155.5 | U 152 |
| Mar 5 | @MEM | W 96-89 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | O 185 |
| Mar 8 | vs CLT | W 83-60 | -17.5 | W +5.5 | 156.5 | U 143 |
| Mar 14 | vsCLT | W 86-64 | -15.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | U 150 |
| Mar 15 | vsWICH | W 70-55 | -6.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | U 125 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsFAMU
FAMUW 102-67
+9.5
8
vsGW
GWL 95-99
−5.5
12
vsCOPP
COPPW 100-50
+15.5
16
@KENN
KENNW 108-89
+11.5
19
@OKST
OKSTL 95-103
−4.5
26
vsVCU
VCUL 66-78
−10.5
27
vsWKU
WKUW 97-91
−1.5
28
vsCSU
CSUL 68-83
−17.5
4
vsUSU
USUW 74-61
+10.5
10
vsCOFC
COFCW 81-75
−7.5
17
@ALA
ALAL 93-104
+3.5
21
vsUMBC
UMBCW 94-69
+2.5
4
vsUAB
UABL 106-109
−11.5
7
@UNT
UNTW 74-70
−0.5
10
@TLSA
TLSAW 93-78
+16.5
14
vsECU
ECUW 82-71
−7.5
18
vsWICH
WICHL 85-86
−8.5
22
@UAB
UABW 82-69
+10.5
25
vsFAU
FAUW 89-75
+8.5
28
@TULN
TULNW 97-83
+5.5
31
@TEM
TEML 78-79
−10.5
4
vsUTSA
UTSAW 109-88
−2.5
8
vsTLSA
TLSAW 80-74
+1.5
11
@WICH
WICHW 66-58
+5.5
15
@FAU
FAUW 83-81
−2.5
19
vsMEM
MEMW 87-66
+11.5
25
@RICE
RICEW 75-56
+7.5
1
vsTULN
TULNW 90-62
+12.5
5
@MEM
MEMW 96-89
−0.5
8
vsCLT
CLTW 83-60
+5.5
14
vsCLT
CLTW 86-64
+6.5
15
vsWICH
WICHW 70-55
+8.5
covered 18didn’t cover 14avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFAMU
FAMUW 102-67
+15.5
8
vsGW
GWL 95-99
+34.5
12
vsCOPP
COPPW 100-50
−17.5
16
@KENN
KENNW 108-89
+19.5
19
@OKST
OKSTL 95-103
+20.5
26
vsVCU
VCUL 66-78
−28.5
27
vsWKU
WKUW 97-91
+20.5
28
vsCSU
CSUL 68-83
−4.5
4
vsUSU
USUW 74-61
−27.5
10
vsCOFC
COFCW 81-75
−4.5
17
@ALA
ALAL 93-104
+18.5
21
vsUMBC
UMBCW 94-69
+2.5
4
vsUAB
UABL 106-109
+51.5
7
@UNT
UNTW 74-70
−3.5
10
@TLSA
TLSAW 93-78
+7.5
14
vsECU
ECUW 82-71
−5.5
18
vsWICH
WICHL 85-86
+12.5
22
@UAB
UABW 82-69
−17.5
25
vsFAU
FAUW 89-75
−2.5
28
@TULN
TULNW 97-83
+21.5
31
@TEM
TEML 78-79
+2.5
4
vsUTSA
UTSAW 109-88
+32.5
8
vsTLSA
TLSAW 80-74
−16.5
11
@WICH
WICHW 66-58
−36.5
15
@FAU
FAUW 83-81
−1.5
19
vsMEM
MEMW 87-66
−10.5
25
@RICE
RICEW 75-56
−26.5
1
vsTULN
TULNW 90-62
−3.5
5
@MEM
MEMW 96-89
+21.5
8
vsCLT
CLTW 83-60
−13.5
14
vsCLT
CLTW 86-64
−3.5
15
vsWICH
WICHW 70-55
−26.5
over 14under 18avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Louisville
33 games played
Straight up
23-10
70% wins
Against the spread
15-18
45% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-20
39% overs · avg −4 pts vs the total
Against the spread
15-1845%
2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SCST | W 104-45 | -35.5 | W +23.5 | 159.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 6 | vs JKST | W 106-70 | -38.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 11 | vs UK | W 96-88 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 15 | vs OHIO | W 106-81 | -31.5 | L −6.5 | 174.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 21 | vs CIN | W 74-64 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs EMU | W 87-46 | -33.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 26 | vs NJIT | W 104-47 | -44.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | @ ARK | L 80-89 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs IU | W 87-78 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | vsMEM | W 99-73 | -16.5 | W +9.5 | 162.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 16 | @ TENN | L 62-83 | +4.5 | L −16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 20 | vs MONT | W 94-54 | -30.5 | W +9.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 30 | @ CAL | W 90-70 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 2 | @ STAN | L 76-80 | -7.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 6 | vs DUKE | L 73-84 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 161.5 | U 157 |
| Jan 10 | vs BC | W 75-62 | -21.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 13 | vs UVA | L 70-79 | -4.5 | L −13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @ PITT | W 100-59 | -7.5 | W +33.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | vs VT | W 85-71 | -14.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Jan 26 | @DUKE | L 52-83 | +8.5 | L −22.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | vs SMU | W 88-74 | -9.5 | W +4.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Feb 4 | vs ND | W 76-65 | -19.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 7 | @ WAKE | W 88-80 | -9.5 | L −1.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Feb 9 | vs NCSU | W 118-77 | -6.5 | W +34.5 | 161.5 | O 195 |
| Feb 14 | vs BAY | W 82-71 | -7.5 | W +3.5 | 162.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 17 | @SMU | L 85-95 | -4.5 | L −14.5 | 168.5 | O 180 |
| Feb 21 | vs GT | W 87-70 | -23.5 | L −6.5 | 167.5 | U 157 |
| Feb 23 | @ UNC | L 74-77 | -3.5 | L −6.5 | 162.5 | U 151 |
| Feb 28 | @ CLEM | L 75-80 | -2.5 | L −7.5 | 146.5 | O 155 |
| Mar 3 | vs SYR | W 77-62 | -14.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | U 139 |
| Mar 7 | @ MIA | W 92-89 | +1.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | O 181 |
| Mar 11 | vsSMU | W 62-58 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 164.5 | U 120 |
| Mar 12 | vsMIA | L 73-78 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 153.5 | U 151 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
+23.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
−2.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+2.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
−6.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
+1.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
+7.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
+12.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
−10.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+5.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−16.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
+9.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+12.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−11.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−9.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−8.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−13.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+33.5
24
vsVT
VTW 85-71
−0.5
26
@DUKE
DUKEL 52-83
−22.5
31
vsSMU
SMUW 88-74
+4.5
4
vsND
NDW 76-65
−8.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 88-80
−1.5
9
vsNCSU
NCSUW 118-77
+34.5
14
vsBAY
BAYW 82-71
+3.5
17
@SMU
SMUL 85-95
−14.5
21
vsGT
GTW 87-70
−6.5
23
@UNC
UNCL 74-77
−6.5
28
@CLEM
CLEML 75-80
−7.5
3
vsSYR
SYRW 77-62
+0.5
7
@MIA
MIAW 92-89
+4.5
11
vsSMU
SMUW 62-58
−3.5
12
vsMIA
MIAL 73-78
−6.5
covered 15didn’t cover 18avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSCST
SCSTW 104-45
−10.5
6
vsJKST
JKSTW 106-70
+10.5
11
vsUK
UKW 96-88
+10.5
15
vsOHIO
OHIOW 106-81
+12.5
21
vsCIN
CINW 74-64
−25.5
24
vsEMU
EMUW 87-46
−29.5
26
vsNJIT
NJITW 104-47
−7.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 80-89
+2.5
6
vsIU
IUW 87-78
+2.5
13
vsMEM
MEMW 99-73
+9.5
16
@TENN
TENNL 62-83
−11.5
20
vsMONT
MONTW 94-54
−18.5
30
@CAL
CALW 90-70
+0.5
2
@STAN
STANL 76-80
−1.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 73-84
−4.5
10
vsBC
BCW 75-62
−13.5
13
vsUVA
UVAL 70-79
−5.5
17
@PITT
PITTW 100-59
+6.5
24
vsVT
VTW 85-71
−4.5
26
@DUKE
DUKEL 52-83
−22.5
31
vsSMU
SMUW 88-74
−1.5
4
vsND
NDW 76-65
−14.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 88-80
+5.5
9
vsNCSU
NCSUW 118-77
+33.5
14
vsBAY
BAYW 82-71
−9.5
17
@SMU
SMUL 85-95
+11.5
21
vsGT
GTW 87-70
−10.5
23
@UNC
UNCL 74-77
−11.5
28
@CLEM
CLEML 75-80
+8.5
3
vsSYR
SYRW 77-62
−20.5
7
@MIA
MIAW 92-89
+25.5
11
vsSMU
SMUW 62-58
−44.5
12
vsMIA
MIAL 73-78
−2.5
over 13under 20avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
South Florida
24-8 overall · 17-3 in conference · American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Wichita St70–55
- Wvs Charlotte86–64
- Wvs Charlotte83–60
- W@ Memphis96–89
- Wvs Tulane90–62
4 days since their last game.
Louisville
23-10 overall · 12-8 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Miami73–78
- Wvs SMU62–58
- W@ Miami92–89
- Wvs Syracuse77–62
- L@ Clemson75–80
A week or more of rest.