Yuengling Center · at South Florida · Conference game
Closing line
USF -4.5✓ USF covered by 1.5
USF -4.5✓ USF covered by 1.5Closing total170.5Under by 16.5
 TLSA | This season | USF |
|---|---|---|
| 18-3 | Record | 14-8 |
| 14-7 | ATS | 10-12 |
| 15-6 | O/U | 13-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TLSA 83–88 USF · ✓ USF (65%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TLSA | 35 | 39 | 74 |
| USF | 39 | 41 | 80 |
1st half: TLSA 35, USF 39 (USF by 4). The model had USF by 2.4 and a total of 80.0 (actual 74).
Team stats
| TLSA | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-61 39% | Field goals | 25-60 42% |
| 15-38 39% | 3-pointers | 7-30 23% |
| 11-18 61% | Free throws | 23-30 77% |
| 43 16 off | Rebounds | 36 12 off |
| 16 | Assists | 19 |
| 3 | Steals | 6 |
| 2 | Blocks | 5 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 23 | Fouls | 16 |
| 18 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| TLSA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ade Popoola G | 36 | 24 | 8 | 0 | 8-15 | 8-13 |
| Miles Barnstable G | 29 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 5-12 | 3-10 |
| David Green F | 29 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 6-13 | 3-6 |
| Tylen Riley G | 27 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 1-5 | 1-2 |
| Tyler Behrend F | 21 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Myles Rigsby G | 17 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3-7 | 0-3 |
| Jaylen Lawal G | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| KJ Martin Jr. F | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Ian Smikle F | 10 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Romad Dean F | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Leon Sifferlin, Carter Benton, Cal Conroy, Terrance Ford Jr., Doryan Onwuchekwa
| USF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Enis G | 35 | 20 | 1 | 6 | 6-11 | 2-6 |
| CJ Brown G | 35 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 3-12 | 1-3 |
| Izaiyah Nelson F | 32 | 25 | 10 | 1 | 9-15 | 1-4 |
| Joseph Pinion G | 28 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4-12 | 3-11 |
| Josh Omojafo G | 19 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Isaiah Jones F | 17 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Daimion Collins F | 12 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Devin Haid G | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Tristan Beckford G | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Adriel Nyorha G | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Gavin Hightower G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Caleb Sanders, Onyx Nnani, Xavier Brown, De'Ante Green
Loading the game…
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUSF -4.5
ModelUSF -4.3
Model edgeTLSA +0.2
L USF covered
Total
Market170.5
Model171.2
Model edgeOver 0.7
L Under
Projected score
TLSA 83.4 · USF 87.8
TLSA 74 · USF 80
Win probability
USF 65%
1st half
Spread
USF -2.4
USF -4.0
Total
80.0
74 points
Projected score
TLSA 38.8 · USF 41.2
TLSA 35 · USF 39
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUSF -3.5
1 → USF
CloseUSF -4.5
1 pt toward USF
Total
Open171.5
▼ 1
Close170.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
TLSA +180 · USF -218
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened USF -3.5 · closed USF -4.5 · moved 1 toward USFmodel USF -4.5 matches the line
model USF -4.5 = line ✓
Opened 171.5 · closed 170.5 · moved 1 downmodel 171
model 171
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TLSA | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% |
| USF | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
TLSA 3–5 USFUSF leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · USF has won the last 2 meetings · TLSA 4-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2025-26 | USF 93 @ TLSA 78 | TLSA -1.5 | USF W |
| Jan 18, 2024-25 | TLSA 56 @ USF 63 | USF -9.5 | TLSA W |
| Mar 9, 2023-24 | USF 70 @ TLSA 76 | TLSA +5.5 | TLSA W |
| Feb 14, 2023-24 | TLSA 50 @ USF 69 | USF -8.5 | USF W |
| Mar 1, 2022-23 | TLSA 56 @ USF 72 | USF -13.5 | USF W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Tulsa
21 games played
Straight up
18-3
86% wins
Against the spread
14-7
67% covers · avg +6.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-6
71% overs · avg +7.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | vs URI | W 82-65 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 153.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 12 | @ ORU | W 88-87 | -5.5 | L −4.5 | 160.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 17 | @ KSU | L 83-84 | +12.5 | W +11.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 21 | vs APSU | W 84-75 | -8.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 25 | vs SJSU | W 81-51 | -5.5 | W +24.5 | 149.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 26 | vs UNI | W 63-60 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 137.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs MOST | W 98-74 | -7.5 | W +16.5 | 142.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 10 | vs UAPB | W 117-84 | -25.5 | W +7.5 | 155.5 | O 201 |
| Dec 13 | vs NMSU | W 83-70 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 19 | @ WKU | W 82-81 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 22 | vs DEN | W 90-85 | -16.5 | L −11.5 | 160.5 | O 175 |
| Dec 31 | vs RICE | W 97-48 | -12.5 | W +36.5 | 152.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 4 | @ UNT | L 67-72 | -2.5 | L −7.5 | 138.5 | O 139 |
| Jan 10 | vsUSF | L 78-93 | -1.5 | L −16.5 | 163.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 14 | @ CLT | W 86-74 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 146.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 18 | @ UAB | W 99-77 | +1.5 | W +23.5 | 159.5 | O 176 |
| Jan 21 | vs MEM | W 83-66 | -6.5 | W +10.5 | 153.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 24 | @RICE | W 87-81 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 28 | vsUNT | W 82-66 | -8.5 | W +7.5 | 141.5 | O 148 |
| Feb 1 | vs WICH | W 93-83 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | O 176 |
| Feb 4 | @ FAU | W 78-76 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 162.5 | U 154 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
vsURI
URIW 82-65
+20.5
12
@ORU
ORUW 88-87
−4.5
17
@KSU
KSUL 83-84
+11.5
21
vsAPSU
APSUW 84-75
+0.5
25
vsSJSU
SJSUW 81-51
+24.5
26
vsUNI
UNIW 63-60
+5.5
6
vsMOST
MOSTW 98-74
+16.5
10
vsUAPB
UAPBW 117-84
+7.5
13
vsNMSU
NMSUW 83-70
+8.5
19
@WKU
WKUW 82-81
−1.5
22
vsDEN
DENW 90-85
−11.5
31
vsRICE
RICEW 97-48
+36.5
4
@UNT
UNTL 67-72
−7.5
10
vsUSF
USFL 78-93
−16.5
14
@CLT
CLTW 86-74
+8.5
18
@UAB
UABW 99-77
+23.5
21
vsMEM
MEMW 83-66
+10.5
24
@RICE
RICEW 87-81
−2.5
28
vsUNT
UNTW 82-66
+7.5
1
vsWICH
WICHW 93-83
+4.5
4
@FAU
FAUW 78-76
−1.5
covered 14didn’t cover 7avg +6.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
vsURI
URIW 82-65
−6.5
12
@ORU
ORUW 88-87
+14.5
17
@KSU
KSUL 83-84
+6.5
21
vsAPSU
APSUW 84-75
+10.5
25
vsSJSU
SJSUW 81-51
−17.5
26
vsUNI
UNIW 63-60
−14.5
6
vsMOST
MOSTW 98-74
+29.5
10
vsUAPB
UAPBW 117-84
+45.5
13
vsNMSU
NMSUW 83-70
+6.5
19
@WKU
WKUW 82-81
+4.5
22
vsDEN
DENW 90-85
+14.5
31
vsRICE
RICEW 97-48
−7.5
4
@UNT
UNTL 67-72
+0.5
10
vsUSF
USFL 78-93
+7.5
14
@CLT
CLTW 86-74
+13.5
18
@UAB
UABW 99-77
+16.5
21
vsMEM
MEMW 83-66
−4.5
24
@RICE
RICEW 87-81
+15.5
28
vsUNT
UNTW 82-66
+6.5
1
vsWICH
WICHW 93-83
+21.5
4
@FAU
FAUW 78-76
−8.5
over 15under 6avg +7.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
South Florida
22 games played
Straight up
14-8
64% wins
Against the spread
10-12
45% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-9
59% overs · avg +6.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs FAMU | W 102-67 | -25.5 | W +9.5 | 153.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 8 | vs GW | L 95-99 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 159.5 | O 194 |
| Nov 12 | vs COPP | W 100-50 | -34.5 | W +15.5 | 167.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 16 | @ KENN | W 108-89 | -7.5 | W +11.5 | 177.5 | O 197 |
| Nov 19 | @ OKST | L 95-103 | +3.5 | L −4.5 | 177.5 | O 198 |
| Nov 26 | vs VCU | L 66-78 | +1.5 | L −10.5 | 172.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 27 | vsWKU | W 97-91 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 167.5 | O 188 |
| Nov 28 | vs CSU | L 68-83 | -2.5 | L −17.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 4 | vs USU | W 74-61 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 162.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 10 | vs COFC | W 81-75 | -13.5 | L −7.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 17 | @ ALA | L 93-104 | +14.5 | W +3.5 | 178.5 | O 197 |
| Dec 21 | vs UMBC | W 94-69 | -22.5 | W +2.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 4 | vsUAB | L 106-109 | -8.5 | L −11.5 | 163.5 | O 215 |
| Jan 7 | @UNT | W 74-70 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | @TLSA | W 93-78 | +1.5 | W +16.5 | 163.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 14 | vs ECU | W 82-71 | -18.5 | L −7.5 | 158.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 18 | vsWICH | L 85-86 | -7.5 | L −8.5 | 158.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 22 | @UAB | W 82-69 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 168.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 25 | vsFAU | W 89-75 | -5.5 | W +8.5 | 166.5 | U 164 |
| Jan 28 | @ TULN | W 97-83 | -8.5 | W +5.5 | 158.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 31 | @ TEM | L 78-79 | -9.5 | L −10.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 4 | vs UTSA | W 109-88 | -23.5 | L −2.5 | 164.5 | O 197 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsFAMU
FAMUW 102-67
+9.5
8
vsGW
GWL 95-99
−5.5
12
vsCOPP
COPPW 100-50
+15.5
16
@KENN
KENNW 108-89
+11.5
19
@OKST
OKSTL 95-103
−4.5
26
vsVCU
VCUL 66-78
−10.5
27
vsWKU
WKUW 97-91
−1.5
28
vsCSU
CSUL 68-83
−17.5
4
vsUSU
USUW 74-61
+10.5
10
vsCOFC
COFCW 81-75
−7.5
17
@ALA
ALAL 93-104
+3.5
21
vsUMBC
UMBCW 94-69
+2.5
4
vsUAB
UABL 106-109
−11.5
7
@UNT
UNTW 74-70
−0.5
10
@TLSA
TLSAW 93-78
+16.5
14
vsECU
ECUW 82-71
−7.5
18
vsWICH
WICHL 85-86
−8.5
22
@UAB
UABW 82-69
+10.5
25
vsFAU
FAUW 89-75
+8.5
28
@TULN
TULNW 97-83
+5.5
31
@TEM
TEML 78-79
−10.5
4
vsUTSA
UTSAW 109-88
−2.5
covered 10didn’t cover 12avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFAMU
FAMUW 102-67
+15.5
8
vsGW
GWL 95-99
+34.5
12
vsCOPP
COPPW 100-50
−17.5
16
@KENN
KENNW 108-89
+19.5
19
@OKST
OKSTL 95-103
+20.5
26
vsVCU
VCUL 66-78
−28.5
27
vsWKU
WKUW 97-91
+20.5
28
vsCSU
CSUL 68-83
−4.5
4
vsUSU
USUW 74-61
−27.5
10
vsCOFC
COFCW 81-75
−4.5
17
@ALA
ALAL 93-104
+18.5
21
vsUMBC
UMBCW 94-69
+2.5
4
vsUAB
UABL 106-109
+51.5
7
@UNT
UNTW 74-70
−3.5
10
@TLSA
TLSAW 93-78
+7.5
14
vsECU
ECUW 82-71
−5.5
18
vsWICH
WICHL 85-86
+12.5
22
@UAB
UABW 82-69
−17.5
25
vsFAU
FAUW 89-75
−2.5
28
@TULN
TULNW 97-83
+21.5
31
@TEM
TEML 78-79
+2.5
4
vsUTSA
UTSAW 109-88
+32.5
over 13under 9avg +6.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Tulsa
18-3 overall · 8-2 in conference · American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ FAU78–76
- Wvs Wichita St93–83
- Wvs North Texas82–66
- W@ Rice87–81
- Wvs Memphis83–66
4 days since their last game.
South Florida
14-8 overall · 7-3 in conference · American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UTSA109–88
- L@ Temple78–79
- W@ Tulane97–83
- Wvs FAU89–75
- W@ UAB82–69
4 days since their last game.