1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 8
  3. NWST @ GCU
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 8

Northwestern State Demons at Grand Canyon Lopes

Global Credit Union Arena · at Grand Canyon
#318NWSTN'Western St
@
#80GCUGrand Canyon
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NWSTThis seasonGCU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GCU 82–61 · win probability GCU 97%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 143.0
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GCU has more of the edges

NWST 0, GCU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
GCUBig
NWST offense vs GCU defense
Offense 340th of 366 against a defense 78th, on the model’s ratings
GCUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NWST 26.1%, GCU 31.3%. Defensive: NWST 67.4%, GCU 74.7%
GCUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: NWST 48.6 and allows 53.0; GCU 51.7 and allows 47.4
Context
Schedule so far
NWST has played the 292nd-hardest schedule, GCU the 107th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GCUBig
GCU offense vs NWST defense
Offense 83rd of 366 against a defense 236th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: NWST plays 65.4 a game (334th fastest), GCU 69.3 (166th). Faster games mean more points
GCUSmall
Three-pointers
NWST hits 33.2% and allows 35.5%; GCU hits 31.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 33.9% and 38.9% of their shots
GCUSmall
Home court
GCU at home. This season: GCU 0-0 at home, NWST 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NWST 28%, GCU 51%. Transfers in: NWST 2, GCU 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NWST 40.1, GCU 39.5. Allowed: NWST 36.3, GCU 39.0
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NWST 18.3%, GCU 17.6%. Forced: NWST 16.9%, GCU 17.4%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—GCU -21.9—
Total—143.0—
Projected score—NWST 60.5 · GCU 82.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadGCU -12.9—
1H total66.9—
1H projected scoreNWST 27 · GCU 39.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Grand Canyon has the better starters

Position by position: N'Western St 1, Grand Canyon 4, even 0
N'Western StBetterGrand Canyon
G I. Miles10.7 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 57
NWSTSmall
G J. Zimmerman TR15.2 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 32
G C. Larry2.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 1
GCUBig
G M. Tucker TR13 pts · 2.1 reb · 3 ast Score 56
F D. Thomas TR5.1 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20
GCUBig
G J. Henley17.7 pts · 5.7 reb · 2.9 ast Score 97
F A. Osojnik TR5.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22
GCUBig
G M. Williams14 pts · 2.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 89
F K. Turner3.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 34
GCUBig
F B. Barkley TR14.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 89
N'Western StBetterGrand Canyon
NWST offense340th of 366 · -11.5
GCUBig
GCU defense78th of 366 · +0.5
NWST defense236th of 366 · -6.2
GCUBig
GCU offense83rd of 366 · +0.4
Backcourt-3.7 · 2 players
GCUBig
Backcourt+4.6 · 4 players
Frontcourt-3.2 · 3 players
GCUBig
Frontcourt+3.0 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+2.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNWST betterGCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
N'Western St
Guards
I. Miles25 minC. Larry18 minK. SimpsonNewD. BrownNewA. AlmuttarNewB. RemoNew
Forwards
D. Thomas18 min · TRA. Osojnik16 min · TRK. Turner13 minN. OjukwuNewC. KellyNewJ. NesbittNew
Grand Canyon
Guards
J. Zimmerman33 min · TRM. Tucker32 min · TRJ. Henley32 minM. Williams27 minT. Holloman26 min · TRD. Skillings25 min · TR
Forwards
B. Barkley29 min · TRT. Behrend22 min · TRA. Dickerson22 min · TRO. Biliew20 min · TRJ. SawyerNewJ. WhortonNew
Centers
E. Demirel23 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NWSTGCU
Scoring
66.1 #346Points per game75.6 #153
1.01 #315Points per possession1.09 #158
65.4 #334Pace (possessions)69.3 #166
Shooting
48.6 #301Effective FG%51.7 #162
33.2 #2183-point %31.8 #286
33.9 #2983-point attempt rate38.9 #192
40.1 #58Free throw rate39.5 #67
Possessions
18.3 #286Turnover rate17.6 #245
26.1 #321Offensive rebound rate31.3 #150
11.3 #322Assists per game12.8 #230
Defense
72.9 #129Points allowed68.7 #42
1.12 #262Points allowed per possession0.99 #22
53.0 #270Opponent effective FG%47.4 #28
35.5 #278Opponent 3-point %31.9 #60
16.9 #160Turnovers forced17.4 #129
67.4 #286Defensive rebound rate74.7 #12
6.2 #215Steals per game6.6 #165
2.3 #321Blocks per game3.6 #123
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N'Western St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nicholls47–61
  • L@ UT Rio Grande62–74
  • L@ Texas A&M-CC59–71
  • Wvs Incarnate Word54–49
  • Wvs Hou Christian71–53

A week or more of rest.

Grand Canyon

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nevada80–84
  • Wvs Fresno St85–60
  • W@ Air Force86–60
  • L@ Utah State69–74
  • Wvs UNLV80–67

A week or more of rest.