Kohl Center · at Wisconsin · Conference game
#23PURPurdue
@
#41WISWisconsin
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
Season records: Purdue and Wisconsin
PURThis seasonWIS
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WIS 77–75 · win probability WIS 55%
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Winner
Line
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no line yet
Total
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model 151.8
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
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No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

PUR 1, WIS 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
PURBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: PUR 36.4%, WIS 29.1%. Defensive: PUR 72.9%, WIS 71.8%
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: PUR plays 65.4 a game (333rd fastest), WIS 70.0 (119th). Faster games mean more points
WISSmall
Home court
WIS at home. This season: WIS 0-0 at home, PUR 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: PUR 13.7%, WIS 12.8%. Forced: PUR 15.3%, WIS 14.3%
Even
WIS offense vs PUR defense
Offense 44th of 366 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: PUR 43%, WIS 54%. Transfers in: PUR 0, WIS 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
PUR has played the 6th-hardest schedule, WIS the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: PUR 28.6, WIS 31.5. Allowed: PUR 25.5, WIS 29.9
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: PUR 57.6 and allows 52.4; WIS 54.5 and allows 51.4
Even
PUR offense vs WIS defense
Offense 38th of 366 against a defense 40th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
PUR hits 38.3% and allows 34.1%; WIS hits 36.2% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 40.2% and 52.1% of their shots

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—WIS -1.5—
Total—151.8—
Projected score—PUR 75.1 · WIS 76.6

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadWIS -0.8—
1H total71.0—
1H projected scorePUR 35.1 · WIS 35.9—

Wisconsin has the better starters

Position by position: Purdue 0, Wisconsin 2, even 3
PurdueBetterWisconsin
G C. Cox8.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 82
Even
G E. Elmer TR12.8 pts · 6.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 68
G G. Harris4.6 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75
Even
G T. Autry TR10.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 61
G J. Benter4.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 75
WISSmall
G B. Carrington8.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90
G O. Mayer5.5 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.2 ast Score 64
WISSmall
F N. Winter13.1 pts · 8.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 96
C D. Jacobsen5.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 88
Even
F A. Rapp9.7 pts · 4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 83
PurdueBetterWisconsin
PUR offense38th of 366 · +5.0
Even
WIS defense40th of 366 · +2.9
PUR defense18th of 366 · +6.0
Even
WIS offense44th of 366 · +4.5
Backcourt+2.4 · 4 players
Even
Backcourt+2.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt+1.8 · 1 player
WISBig
Frontcourt+6.7 · 2 players
Bench-0.0 · 2 players
PURSmall
Bench-2.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPUR betterWIS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Purdue
Guards
C. Cox24 minG. Harris16 minJ. Benter15 minO. Mayer14 minJ. Rayl2 minJ. Lusk2 min
Forwards
S. KingNewC. PierceNewE. ShahrvinNewR. BurgessNewR. KnightNew
Centers
D. Jacobsen13 minS. HuanNew
Wisconsin
Guards
E. Elmer31 min · TRT. Autry29 min · TRB. Carrington18 minJ. Janicki17 minH. Jones7 minZ. Kinziger6 min
Forwards
N. Winter31 minA. Rapp23 minV. Onuetu18 min · TRW. Garlock7 minI. RiddleNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PURWIS
Scoring
81.6 #35Points per game83.0 #28
1.25 #2Points per possession1.18 #27
65.4 #333Pace (possessions)70.0 #119
Shooting
57.6 #10Effective FG%54.5 #52
38.3 #113-point %36.2 #50
40.2 #1643-point attempt rate52.1 #6
28.6 #336Free throw rate31.5 #267
Possessions
13.7 #16Turnover rate12.8 #4
36.4 #19Offensive rebound rate29.1 #232
19.6 #2Assists per game16.0 #48
Defense
70.5 #65Points allowed76.1 #221
1.08 #162Points allowed per possession1.09 #193
52.4 #232Opponent effective FG%51.4 #178
34.1 #192Opponent 3-point %33.5 #152
15.3 #263Turnovers forced14.3 #327
72.9 #39Defensive rebound rate71.8 #74
5.5 #297Steals per game5.6 #287
2.8 #257Blocks per game3.1 #198

Purdue

30-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-7 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arizona64–79
  • Wvs Texas79–77
  • Wvs Miami79–69
  • Wvs Queens University Royals104–71
  • Wvs Michigan80–72

A week or more of rest.

Wisconsin

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 16-7 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs High Point82–83
  • Lvs Michigan65–68
  • Wvs Illinois91–88
  • Wvs Washington85–82
  • W@ Purdue97–93

A week or more of rest.