1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 8
  3. SDAK @ MONT
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 8

South Dakota Coyotes at Montana Grizzlies

Dahlberg Arena · at Montana
#291SDAKSouth Dakota
@
#273MONTMontana
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SDAKThis seasonMONT
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MONT 80–75 · win probability MONT 66%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

SDAK 4, MONT 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MONTBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: SDAK 49.9 and allows 54.5; MONT 55.8 and allows 50.5
MONTBig
Three-pointers
SDAK hits 32.4% and allows 34.5%; MONT hits 36.6% and allows 32.3%. Threes are 35.9% and 41.8% of their shots
SDAKBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SDAK 16.5%, MONT 19.5%. Forced: SDAK 15.9%, MONT 14.3%
MONTSmall
MONT offense vs SDAK defense
Offense 256th of 366 against a defense 355th, on the model’s ratings
SDAKSmall
SDAK offense vs MONT defense
Offense 197th of 366 against a defense 294th, on the model’s ratings
SDAKSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: SDAK 45.2, MONT 36.8. Allowed: SDAK 31.0, MONT 32.6
Context
Schedule so far
SDAK has played the 305th-hardest schedule, MONT the 250th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MONTSmall
Home court
MONT at home. This season: MONT 0-0 at home, SDAK 0-0 away
SDAKSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SDAK 28.7%, MONT 20.7%. Defensive: SDAK 69.7%, MONT 70.4%
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: SDAK plays 72.6 a game (23rd fastest), MONT 71.1 (72nd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SDAK 26%, MONT 39%. Transfers in: SDAK 6, MONT 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MONT -4.7—
Total—154.4—
Projected score—SDAK 74.9 · MONT 79.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMONT -2.7—
1H total72.2—
1H projected scoreSDAK 34.7 · MONT 37.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Montana has the better starters

Position by position: South Dakota 0, Montana 1, even 4
South DakotaBetterMontana
G J. Summers TR9.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22
Even
G T. Thompson8.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 24
G M. Sanchez TR9.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 34
No call
G C. Anderson5.6 pts · 1 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
G V. Buzelis7.1 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 27
No call
G C. Dick1.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
G K. Kublickas TR5.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 19
MONTSmall
F K. Aguino8.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 48
F E. Kizer4 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.2 ast Score 5
No call
F A. Jedkins0.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
South DakotaBetterMontana
SDAK offense197th of 366 · -6.1
SDAKSmall
MONT defense294th of 366 · -7.4
SDAK defense355th of 366 · -10.1
MONTSmall
MONT offense256th of 366 · -7.8
Backcourt-7.3 · 4 players
MONTBig
Backcourt-3.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player
MONTSmall
Frontcourt-0.9 · 2 players
Bench-1.8 · 4 players
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestSDAK betterMONT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
South Dakota
Guards
J. Summers27 min · TRM. Sanchez25 min · TRV. Buzelis24 minK. Kublickas20 min · TRC. Kelderman4 min · TRE. WarrenNew
Forwards
E. Kizer15 minJ. Brack14 minJ. Townley-Thomas5 min · TRT. NetolickyNewB. DomschNew
Centers
S. van Bussel5 min · TR
Montana
Guards
T. Thompson30 minC. Anderson10 minC. Dick9 minG. DutroNewJ. BrownNewJ. ClarkNew
Forwards
K. Aguino24 minA. Jedkins5 minJ. SandersNewC. MpianaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SDAKMONT
Scoring
78.0 #94Points per game75.7 #148
1.07 #207Points per possession1.06 #216
72.6 #23Pace (possessions)71.1 #72
Shooting
49.9 #239Effective FG%55.8 #23
32.4 #2643-point %36.6 #38
35.9 #2513-point attempt rate41.8 #138
45.2 #4Free throw rate36.8 #135
Possessions
16.5 #168Turnover rate19.5 #339
28.7 #242Offensive rebound rate20.7 #363
11.9 #295Assists per game14.3 #125
Defense
81.7 #337Points allowed77.6 #254
1.13 #284Points allowed per possession1.09 #204
54.5 #318Opponent effective FG%50.5 #129
34.5 #219Opponent 3-point %32.3 #74
15.9 #225Turnovers forced14.3 #326
69.7 #172Defensive rebound rate70.4 #143
6.1 #223Steals per game5.4 #306
2.6 #293Blocks per game2.4 #313
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

South Dakota

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Omaha62–76
  • Wvs S Dakota St75–70
  • Wvs Omaha89–72
  • L@ Oral Roberts62–67
  • L@ Denver70–90

A week or more of rest.

Montana

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Idaho66–77
  • Wvs Portland St75–72
  • Wvs N Colorado95–89
  • L@ N Colorado57–85
  • Wvs Portland St74–68

A week or more of rest.